Home Run Props Today: Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks for Thursday, September 10

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Ben Rice (+260)
• Luis Garcia (+320)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Picks, Props and Predictions Today

Home Run Prediction: Ben Rice (+260)

Rockies at Yankees, 7:06 p.m. ET

Ryan Feltner will be on the bump for the Colorado Rockies, and that’s good news for the New York Yankees‘ hitters.

On the season, Feltner has struggled to a 4.80 SIERA and 16.9% K rate while permitting 1.60 homers per nine. It’s hard to envision him finding much success tonight in the Bronx against a Yankees lineup that is getting healthier.

Ben Rice rakes versus RHPs, slugging his way to a .393 wOBA, 44.4% hard-hit rate and 42.7% fly-ball rate in the split. He’s swinging it well right now, posting a .383 wOBA across his previous 49 plate appearances, and once Feltner is out of the game, Rice will see a Colorado bullpen that ranks fifth-worst in xFIP this year.

As an added bonus, the wind is blowing out to right at 8 MPH.

Home Run Prediction: Luis Garcia (+320)

Rockies at Yankees, 7:06 p.m. ET

On a day with just five games on the slate, there aren’t many good dinger spots to choose from, so I’m sticking with the Pinstripes for my second pick.

Luis Garcia is another Yankee lefty who can take advantage of the date with Feltner and a shaky Rockies bullpen.

Garcia has 28 jacks and a .367 wOBA for the campaign — he’s been excellent. A whopping 25 of those 28 homers have come against right-handed hurlers, and he boasts a .383 wOBA in the split along with a 40.9% hard-hit rate.

After a slowish start to his Yankees tenure, Garcia has mashed of late, racking up a .441 wOBA and four bombs over his last 61 plate appearances. He’s hit five home runs as a Yankee, and four of those have come at home.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one plate appearance — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't record a plate appearance, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.