Home Run Props Today: Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks for Saturday, Sept. 26

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Jackson Chourio (+440)
• Cal Raleigh (+300)
• Yordan Alvarez (+255)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Picks, Props and Predictions Today

Home Run Prediction: Jackson Chourio (+440)

Cardinals vs. Brewers, 7:11 p.m. ET

Jackson Chourio enters Saturday with a career-best 25 home runs and a .286/.347/.484 slash line over 565 plate appearances. That gives him a .198 ISO, and his power has taken another step forward this season.

The St. Louis Cardinals are scheduled to start left-hander Quinn Mathews. Mathews has been solid in his first eight MLB starts, pitching to a 3.65 ERA across 44 1/3 innings, but his underlying profile isn't super imposing. He's struck out only 20.5% of hitters while walking 9.5%, resulting in a 3.80 FIP. Mathews has allowed four homers, so he hasn't been especially homer-prone, but his modest strikeout rate should give Chourio opportunities to put the ball in play.

Chourio has already shown off his high-end raw power this week, and the combination of the platoon advantage and a pitcher who doesn't miss a ton of bats makes Chourio an intriguing long-ball target.

Home Run Prediction: Cal Raleigh (+300)

Angels vs. Mariners, 9:41 p.m. ET

It has been a disappointing season overall for Cal Raleigh, but the power hasn't wholly disappeared. Raleigh has 23 home runs despite his .179 average, and he's shown a much more dangerous power profile recently. Over his last 30 games, Raleigh has gone deep 10 times while slugging .593.

The opposing starter is where this wager gets especially interesting. The Los Angeles Angels are sending right-hander Ryan Johnson to the mound, and Johnson has surrendered 18 home runs in just 95 innings this year. That's a 1.71 HR/9, accompanying a 4.93 ERA, 5.38 FIP, 18.5% strikeout rate, and 1.35 WHIP.

Raleigh's season-long numbers make him tougher to trust than usual, but a matchup with a righty who has struggled this badly to keep the ball in the yard is appealing. Raleigh still possesses plenty of raw power, and his recent stretch offers evidence that he can capitalize on Johnson's biggest weakness.

Home Run Prediction: Yordan Alvarez (+255)

Astros vs. A’s, 9:41 p.m. ET

Yordan Alvarez has put together a monster 2026 campaign. Through 155 games, he's batting .315 with a .433 on-base percentage and .599 slugging percentage, giving him a 1.031 OPS and .283 ISO. Alvarez has launched 41 home runs, and he’s homered three times over his previous 43 plate appearances.

He'll see Athletics right-hander Jack Perkins on Saturday at homer-happy Sutter Health Park. Perkins has registered a 5.90 ERA and 1.45 WHIP across 116 innings, allowing 20 home runs -- good for 1.55 per nine innings. His 25.2% strikeout rate is a good clip, but the overall results and home run rate provide plenty of appeal for one of baseball's premier power hitters, especially at this venue.

Perkins deserves credit for allowing only one run across 12 2/3 innings over his last two starts, so he's entering this matchup in improved form. Still, Alvarez is a completely different challenge. With 41 homers and a .443 expected wOBA, Alvarez has the combination of contact quality and raw power we want.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who are the best home run picks for today?

Jackson Chourio, Cal Raleigh, and Yordan Alvarez are three home run bets to have on your radar for Saturday's MLB slate.

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one plate appearance — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't record a plate appearance, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.