Home Run Props Today: Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks for Monday, September 21

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Christian Encarnacion-Strand (+430)
• Josh Bell (+560)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Picks, Props and Predictions Today

Home Run Prediction: Christian Encarnacion-Strand (+430)

Blue Jays at Orioles, 6:36 p.m. ET

Christian Encarnacion-Strand has proven to be a savvy pickup for the Baltimore Orioles, and I like him today in a home matchup with Trey Yesavage and the Toronto Blue Jays.

Encarnacion-Strand has homered 10 times through 198 plate appearances this season. He’s got a 45.0% hard-hit rate with a .350 wOBA. He’s hot right now, too, posting a .413 wOBA with two jacks over his last 35 plate appearances.

Yesavage burst onto the scene last year but has taken a step back in 2026, producing a 4.56 SIERA. He’s surrendered a 49.6% fly-ball rate, and this will be his first start off the IL. So not only could Yesavage be a bit rusty, but Encarnacion-Strand should see a good amount of a Jays bullpen that has the 12th-worst reliever xFIP in the second half.

Home Run Prediction: Josh Bell (+560)

Twins at Giants, 9:46 p.m. ET

I’m interested in the Minnesota Twins versus Blade Tidwell, and that leads me to Josh Bell.

Tidwell, a RHP, owns a 4.67 SIERA and 18.9% strikeout rate. Lefty bats have amassed a 48.8% fly-ball rate and 2.10 homers per nine against him.

Bell has 20 long-balls this year, 13 of which have come on the road. Of those 20 tanks, 14 have been against right-handers. Bell has a .356 wOBA and 47.1% hard-hit rate across his previous 72 plate appearances.

Once Tidwell is out of the game, Bell will take his hacks against a San Francisco Giants bullpen that has the seventh-worst xFIP in the second half.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one plate appearance — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't record a plate appearance, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.