UFC 307 DFS Picks: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. In this piece, we'll look at the fights through the lens of playing UFC DFS contests on FanDuel Fantasy. Fighters score fantasy points for significant strikes, takedowns, knockdowns, and submission attempts, but a quick finish provides the best way to win!

Without further delay, let's take a look at the main slate for UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr., taking place at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah on Saturday.

UFC 307 DFS Picks

Studs to Target

You can't talk about UFC DFS this weekend without Alex Pereira ($22) in the main event.

In my UFC 307 best bets, I noted that I believe Pereira is both overvalued to win and win by KO/TKO -- but the latter is still decently likely (-260), per the UFC odds on FanDuel, at overwhelming popularity. "Poatan" has scored fewer than 90 FanDuel points in five of his nine career starts; it's not crazy to fade him.

I prefer Ryan Spann ($20) as my top MVP choice. He's -175 to win inside the distance against 41-year-old Ovince Saint Preux. Spann's high rate of knockdowns (2.36%) and submission attempts (1.5 per 15 minutes) are exactly what you want from an MVP candidate in a workable matchup.

Second on the podium is Cesar Almeida ($21), a former kickboxer that followed a similar path to UFC as Pereira. After Almeida's impressive +17 striking differential over Roman Kopylov (5-3 UFC) in a split decision loss, Almeida (+2.37 striking success rate) should be the significantly more polished striker against Ihor Potieria (+0.09 SSR). Neither has landed a UFC takedown, so that will go a long way to potentially finding a knockout -- which he's -185 to do.

The card's largest favorite is Kayla Harrison ($23) at -1100 odds to win, but Harrison's matchup to score is suboptimal. Ketlen Vieira's 92% takedown D will be a problem for the former Olympic gold medalist in judo, and a Vieira opponent has eclipsed 80 FanDuel points just once in her 11-fight career. I'd put her third behind Spann and Almeida.

Joaquin Buckley ($19) joins Spann on the "senior circuit", battling 41-year-old Stephen Thompson. I've modeled him 34.4% to win inside the distance; his 1.42% knockdown rate makes it no mystery as to how it might happen.

I like Alexander Hernandez ($19) and his vastly superior recent competition level to win, but Austin Hubbard's granite chin has resulted in zero UFC losses by knockout, and Hernandez has just one career submission attempt. He's likely headed for the cards and should stay solely in flex consideration.

The same goes for Tecia Pennington ($17) in a matchup with the retiring Carla Esparza; her fight is -600 to go the distance. I'm picking her to win while minding the limited upside in DFS. Esparza's questionable motivation does add some intrigue to "Tiny Tornado" finding a second-career finish, though.

Value Plays to Target

As perhaps the most psychotic thing I've done yet, I have to take a chance on Khalil Rountree Jr. ($15) to pull the upset when his 2.88% knockdown rate meets Pereira's 51% striking defense and shaky chin. He's got a clear-as-day path to 100-plus FanDuel points but will likely be found on few rosters.

A more conventional (sane?) value play is Roman Dolidze ($13), who is in a great spot to replicate the results at middleweight for Kevin Holland against Derek Brunson, Marvin Vettori, and Khamzat Chimaev. Those three landed a combined 18 takedowns in three dominant wins, and Dolidze attempts 3.15 takedowns per 15 minutes while converting a solid clip of them (40%). I'm surprised he's the 'dog.

It's not often you find a -150 favorite in the bargain bin, but Mario Bautista ($15) is a consensus underdog to the public. 82% of Tapology users are picking 38-year-old Jose Aldo to pull the upset -- just as he did to Jonathan Martinez back in May. The problem? Bautista's +1.70 SSR and 2.25 takedowns landed per 15 minutes as the fighter in his prime should make for a brutal night at the office for "The King of Rio".

Julianna Peña ($15) is certainly the likelier of the two women's 135 title participants for a finish. If it didn't come for Rocky Pennington against an exhausted Mayra Bueno Silva with the flu, I'm not sure when it would. Peña showed insane toughness to grit through three Amanda Nunes knockdowns in her last bout -- especially after submitting Nunes the first time around to force a rematch. Her ceiling seems much higher than Pennington's at a lower salary.

I'm also willing to roll the dice on Marina Rodriguez ($12) in the bargain bin in fight given her bout being -280 to go all 15 minutes. If anything, we want to hunt finishes with different favorites, but Rodriguez's +1.70 SSR inside the rankings is a huge step up in competition for Iasmin Lucindo.

Court McGee ($11) is also the local guy from Utah, and he certainly could make some noise in this realm when his opponent, 40-year-old Tim Means, has been finished in three of his last five. McGee's 61% striking D generally makes him a tough guy to score against, limiting Means' upside as a favorite anyway.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.