3 Best Bets and Player Props for Saturday's Men's College Basketball Round of 4 Games

The 2025 men's college basketball tournament has reached the semifinals.

For just the second time since 1979, the four No. 1 seeds are the final teams standing.

Action tips off Saturday at 6:09 p.m. ET from San Antonio, Texas. Florida-Auburn is the first game, followed by Houston-Duke.

For individual breakdowns, check out our best bets for each game in the men's college basketball tournament.

Using FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball betting odds, let's run through Saturday's college basketball tournament best bets for the Round of 4.

College Basketball Betting Picks for Today's Semifinal Games

Florida vs. Auburn

Miles Kelly 3+ Made Threes (+146)

Auburn guard Miles Kelly has served as the team's top three-point shooter this season -- even if he's hit something of a cold streak of late. Still, the Tigers are going to need him in Saturday's date with Florida. While he's averaged just 2.3 threes per game on the year, this is the kind of matchup that could serve Kelly's outside shooting well. With that, I see value in his odds for at least three made threes.

Kelly has made at least 3 threes at a 43% clip against top-50 teams, but he's been more active of late. Despite going a combined 3 for 18 from distance over the last three games, Kelly has still made three-plus triples in 5 of his last 10 games.

To be clear, Florida's defense isn't the best matchup for opposing threes. The Gators are 10th nationally in adjusted defense, and they've allowed the sixth-lowest three-point percentage in the country.

But they do give up a fair number of three-point attempts, especially to the wing. Among the 140 teams in the top-10 conferences, Florida has permitted the 20th-most three-point attempts to wings. In conference play, they let up the fourth-highest usage rate to the position.

Within that sample lies a 22-point, 3-triple showing from Kelly in Auburn's first matchup with Florida.

Look for Miles Kelly to hit at least three treys against Florida for the second time this season.

Thomas Haugh to Score 15+ Points (+220)

Florida forward Thomas Haugh's points prop is set at 11.5 with +100 odds toward the over. That's tempting in itself given Haugh's 20-point showing in the Round of 8, but he's shown enough scoring to warrant consideration in the alternate markets. My favorite way of doing so?

Haugh to score at least 15 points.

Haugh is averaging only 9.8 points across 24.4 minutes per game this season, but we've seen his usage trending up over the latter half of the year. The sophomore forward has played 27, 32, and 30 minutes across the last three tournament games, and he's averaging 27 minutes per game since the beginning of February.

That uptick in usage could do wonders for his scoring marks. Haugh has scored at least 15 points in 47% of games where he played at least 25 minutes. Though he's accomplished that feat only once across the last three games, his monster game against Texas Tech has the arrow firmly pointed up.

Haugh scored 16 points on 4-of-10 shooting in Florida's first matchup with Auburn, and the forward position is one the Tigers have struggled with all year. Despite ranking 8th overall in adjusted defense, Auburn has permitted the 20th-most points (per 40 minutes) to opposing forwards.

We've seen that play out in the last two games. Auburn gave up 17 to Michigan State’s Jaxon Kohler and 20 to Michigan’s Danny Wolf. Those two average only 8 and 13 points, respectively, so I'm not especially worried about Haugh's upside in this matchup.

In what should be a fast-paced game where the total is up at 159.5, Florida-Auburn is the Round of 4 game I most want to get exposure to in the prop market. For me, the biggest value on the board is with Haugh’s points prop -- either the 11.5 or an alternate of 15-plus.

Houston vs. Duke

Under 136.5 (-110)

This total was at 136.5 when I talked through Houston-Duke on Covering the Spread before it dropped a point to 135.5 and then jumped back to 136.5.

I still think there's value in the under.

Houston and Duke are both top-five Ds by KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency. They're first and fifth, respectively, in scoring defense.

Both sides have strong offenses, explaining why the total is as modest as it is despite the elite defenses. But neither team plays at an especially fast pace. Duke is 269th in adjusted tempo whereas Houston is 360th (out of 364 teams). A slower-paced game means fewer possessions -- good for the under.

We've seen that play out when both sides faced other slow-paced teams. Duke's nine games against that are lower than 250th in adjusted tempo averaged 139.1 total points, well below their season-long average (146.2). Houston's 12 games in that split averaged 127.9 points, also below their season average (132.3).

Duke just has not faced a team like Houston stylistically. Their defense is strong enough to compete with the Cougars, but offense could be at a premium on Saturday night. For me, the under is the best bet for Houston-Duke.

You can also click here to get our updated printable Men's College Basketball Tournament bracket for the Round of 4.

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Which bets stand out to you for the upcoming games? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest college basketball betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.