UFC 307 Best Bets: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr.

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Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr., taking place at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah on Saturday.

UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. Betting Picks

Marina Rodriguez vs. Iasmin Lucindo

Rodriguez by Points (+240)

Though age (37) and attrition aren't on Marina Rodriguez's side, this is a tough matchup to lay chalk expecting her to lose.

Rodriguez just went to a competitive split decision with Jessica Andrade, another top-10 contender, in April, and the Muay Thai specialist has been a striking staple in this division for years behind a +1.70 striking success rate (SSR). Her takedown defense (65%) is just average, which is why I believe many think she'll lose this one.

Iasmin Lucindo does bring solid wrestling quantity (4.21 takedown attempts per 15 minutes) and efficiency (53% accuracy), but those numbers are hollow against competition that is 16-18 overall in UFC. Rodriguez -- a 7-4-2 ranked fighter -- is a galactic step up in competition.

The 22-year-old Lucindo lost, posted a -20 striking differential, and failed both takedown attempts in her UFC debut against a long striker with a similar style, Yazmin Jauregui (3-2 UFC). I think she also flunks this latest test of the same style.

I've got Rodriguez 41.3% likely to win by decision (+142 implied).

Kevin Holland vs. Roman Dolidze

Dolidze to Win (+128)

How many times does Kevin Holland have to lose this fight at middleweight before we make him an underdog?

"Big Mouth" has perused through both 170 and 185 pounds to some success recently, including submitting 170-pound grappler Michael Chiesa back in July 2023. It's just been a disaster for him facing grapplers at 185, allowing 18 combined takedowns to Khamzat Chimaev, Marvin Vettori, and Derek Brunson in three convincing losses between 2021 and 2022.

Holland's lack of size for heavier middleweights didn't just vanish.

I'm aghast that Roman Dolidze is an underdog with a similar profile to an old foe of his, Vettori. In fact, Dolidze competes successfully at 205 pounds at times, including a win in June. There's an effective two-weight-class difference between these two.

Overall, Roman averages 3.15 takedowns attempted per 15 minutes with decent accuracy (40%) converting them. That's the exact tool that's been a non-starter for Holland.

That's why I'm looking at Dolidze to win I've modeled him 44.2% likely to win, but all three outcomes -- including a fourth UFC knockout or submission like Chimaev -- are on the table here.

Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Peña

Peña to Win (+140)

I've referred to this fight as battling to see who is warming Kayla Harrison's belt at 135. Harrison is -1100 to win over Ketlen Vieira on Saturday and all but wrap up the next title shot.

Raquel Pennington certainly got the better of a grappler that was out of her depth to win it back in January. Pennington surrendered three takedown attempts and submission attempts to Mayra Bueno Silva earlier before "Sheetara" faded, paving the way to a +65 striking differential that could have led to a TKO late if "Rocky" showed a bit of urgency -- but that's the issue with her.

With zero career knockdowns as a striker, 9 of Pennington's last 10 wins have come via decision. She doesn't really separate, so it's hard to justify not taking +140 with her opponent. This weekend, that's "The Venezuelan Vixen", Julianna Peña.

Peña was the only woman to ever defeat Amanda Nunes for the title in this division, but a +25 striking differential in the rematch for the G.O.A.T showed that probably came from Nunes' lack of motivation more than Peña's skill. Still, Julianna submitted Nunes and can absolutely grapple, posting 1.94 takedowns and 0.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes herself.

If there's longevity to Peña's grappling that Bueno Silva lacked, this number could look like a steal. I've got her modeled as 46.6% likely to win what should be a pretty close fight.

Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.

Rountree Jr. to Win (+350)

Mathematically, there is no truly sensible way to back Alex Pereira in Saturday's main event.

"Poatan" has risen to super stardom amidst defeating five different former middleweight or light heavyweight champions, but the reality is there is extreme variance to Pereira's style, and he's just flipped the coin on the right side in six of his last seven fights.

We've seen the other side of the coin, too. The 37-year-old isn't ridiculously durable, losing via knockout to Israel Adesanya in a fight he was winning with a +8 striking differential. His striking defense (51%) is poor by championship standards. He's just routinely found the perfect shot to put out his opponents first.

Is Saturday the likeliest spot the coin lands the other way? Probably not. Khalil Rountree Jr. seems overmatched if his -0.34 SSR to Pereira's +1.72 is any indication. With that said, Rountree's knockdown rate (2.32%) has been a great equalizer, winning four of his five consecutive victories by KO/TKO.

My model gives nearly zero submission equity to the inefficient Rountree, but personally, his moneyline isn't different enough from his KO/TKO prop (+550) to forgo the decision outcome. "The War Horse" has been the full distance in three of his last eight. I've got Rountree winning 29.6% of the time compared to these 22.2% implied odds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.