Tony Pollard Is Ready for Fantasy Stardom as the Cowboys' Lead Back

With training camp and preseason football less than a month away, it's time to get yourselves ready for some fantasy football.

As is for any year, we're looking for those players we can take early and win because of them.

Let's look at Tony Pollard, who is coming off a breakout season for the Dallas Cowboys and is one of the few players entering 2023 with a chance to again break out as a potential league-winning option.

Tony Pollard Fantasy Football Projection

Projections via numberFire.

2023 Projected Stats: 1,345 rushing yards, 9.5 rushing TDs, 50.3 receptions, 416.7 receiving yards, 3.0 receiving TDs

2023 Projected Points: 249.22 points

numberFire Positional Projection: RB7

Tony Pollard Fantasy Football Outlook

Coming Off a Breakout

Tony Pollard got more run in 2022 and made it count. The Cowboys split the backfield pretty evenly between Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott for the first time, and it was night and day when it came to production.

Pollard finished the season as the RB7 in fantasy with 229.3 points (half-PPR) in 16 games. And what is most impressive about that placement is that Pollard did it with just 232 touches. Everyone ahead of Pollard had 300-plus and he was still in the conversation as a top-10 back, nearly top-5.

The dynamic runner has averaged 5.1 yards per carry in his career and will be starting for the first time with no one around to take opportunities away from him. His 83.3 scrimmage yards per game jumps out more than anything as his opportunities became results. That's the most important part about touches when it comes to running backs -- it's making them count as Pollard had.

The Cowboys' new head back also had 503 yards after contact, showing that he's willing to take contact to make things happen. He only ranked below five other rushers in that stat last season, all of whom had more carries than him.

Pollard was averaging 1.0 fantasy points per opportunity (per Player Profiler) a season ago, so assuming there are more opportunities ahead -- and potentially his first 300-plus touch season -- that would leave him among the elite in fantasy.

No More Zeke = RB1?

The reason Pollard, who finished as an RB1 last season, is now poised to be a no-doubt top back for fantasy owners in the upcoming year is due to the Cowboys officially moving on from Ezekiel Elliott after seven seasons together.

With Zeke released, opportunities will open up for Pollard, and there's expected to be little "running back by committee" in Dallas for 2023. The new starter is only flanked by second-year running back Malik Davis and Ronald Jones, so not much competition other than spelling Pollard on occasion.

The vast majority of the 248 touches that will be freed up from Elliott will likely go to Pollard. That will mean an upped snap percentage for the 26-year-old, as well, who had a 51.5% snap percentage in 2022 compared to Elliott's 55.1%.

Surely, not all those freed-up touches will go to Pollard, but it opens up a chance for him to get the most important looks, including in the red zone. Elliott had 26 red zone carries last season (2.5 red zones rushes per game), taking from Pollard in the most important spots to only bolster his performances.

The red zone rushing market share heavily favored Elliott, who had a 54.5% share while Pollard was just at 32.1%. Even if all Pollard adds is 20 percentage points to get around where Elliott had been, that's a major victory and has his stock rising all the more.

Looking at the recent history of how other running backs have fared after the guy ahead of them has moved on, Austin Ekeler was in a similar situation before the Los Angeles Chargers moved on from Melvin Gordon after the 2020 season. In those two seasons since, Ekeler has been the RB2 (2021) and RB1 (2022), signaling that his impressive numbers prior were no fluke, as he was averaging 16.4 and 13.8 points the two seasons before with Gordon ahead of him.

This isn't to say Pollard is going to catch 100 balls like Ekeler has since, but his mixture of rushing and receiving prowess was already good enough to make him a top-10 running back last year, and all signs point to that being the case all over again, giving him the potential for a dynamite season.

Verdict: A Potential League-Winner

"League-winner" isn't a term to take lightly, and many times those league-winners are found later in the draft.

But then there are those picks in the early rounds that make fantasy drafters look like a genius, especially if you can pair a home run second pick with a first pick lock. That home run is what Pollard can be.

The Cowboys rusher holds a 21.7 average draft position (ADP), per FantasyPros, ranking toward the backend of the second round in 12-person drafts and even a third-round selection in 10-person drafts. Pollard has a 21.9 ADP in FanDuel Best Ball drafts, so the market is consistent all around in terms of where he's being selected.

What's interesting is that Pollard now sits behind eight players as the RB9 heading into the season. Six of those players were the six ahead of Pollard in the 2022 season, while the other two include a bounce-back candidate in Jonathan Taylor and rookie Bijan Robinson.

Taylor is coming off a disastrous season, much like his Indianapolis Colts. Robinson will step into the Atlanta Falcons' system and become the focal point of the offseason, so it makes sense, but think about this when it comes to your drafts. Taylor, Robinson, and Pollard are all going to be great -- that's the truth. But both Taylor and Robinson play for teams that could be playing catch-up a lot, taking away rushing opportunities.

That's what we saw with Taylor a year ago to go along with his injuries. He only averaged 12.0 points per game as a result. Robinson is likely to be involved plenty in the receiving game, but he has a 9.3 ADP.

If you want a back who has shown flashes already in the NFL and you can wait to pick a sturdier first selection, Pollard is the guy, which makes him a potential league-winner in every way.

Pollard is in an offense that is going to make him a versatile option on the ground and through the air. Going as the RB9, Pollard can be a guy to pair with any top receiver in the first round to give fantasy owners a great 1-2 punch.

There isn't a better late-second, early-third-round option in 2023 fantasy drafts than Pollard. Go get him.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.