Bijan Robinson Is the Safest RB in Fantasy Football

We're less than two months away from Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season and fantasy football draft season is rapidly approaching.

You can't win your Fantasy Football league on draft day, but you can certainly lose it. For savvy owners, this time of the year is when you get ahead of the rest of your league.

At FanDuel Research, we are breaking down all the top players in fantasy ahead of the 2023 season, focusing today on Atlanta Falcons running back Bijan Robinson.

Bijan Robinson Fantasy Football Projection

Projections via numberFire.

2023 Projection: 1,386 rushing yards, 10.84 rushing TDs, 46 receptions, 346 receiving yards, 2.45 receiving TDs

numberFire Positional Projection: RB6

Bijan Robinson Fantasy Football Outlook

Fantasy football is in a transition period as the on-field product continues to cater to the passing game.

For years, running backs have dominated the first round in season-long leagues. Last season, RBs still had a foothold on first-round average draft position (ADP) with seven backs being selected in the first 12 picks.

However, that was the fewest number of first-round backs by ADP in the last five seasons. Early 2023 ADP data suggests a continuation of that trend with just four in the top-12 in both half-PPR format and FanDuel's best-ball formats.

It makes sense.

Of the seven backs selected in the first round, only four finished as an RB1. Compare that with the receiver position; all five wideouts selected in the first round finished as WR1s.

Running backs are simply a more risky investment in the first round compared to receivers. If you're spending that kind of draft capital on a running back, you better nail the pick considering how much of a sure thing receivers are at that stage.

First-Round Running Backs

The Falcons selected Robinson with the No. 8 overall pick in this year's draft. He became just the eighth running back to be drafted in the first round over the last six seasons and the highest since Saquon Barkley went second overall in 2018.

Let's take a look at how those seven rookie backs did in fantasy:

Not counting Travis Etienne's lost rookie year, four of the six outperformed their ADP. Two finished in the top five, setting the precedent for Robinson to live up to his current, RB3 ADP.

Compared to the other RB1s currently being drafted, Bijan Robinson is harder to project given his lack of NFL experience. However, there's certainly a precedent for rookie RBs to finish among the best at the position. Thus, Robinson carries sky-high expectations into his rookie year.

Robinson as a Prospect

Bijan Robinson immediately made his name known at the University of Texas. The 6'0", 220 lbs. back led the Longhorns in rushing during each of his three collegiate seasons.

As a true freshman in 2020, he set the school record for yards per carry, averaging 8.2 yards per carry. In 2021 he was named first-team All-Big 12 and finished as PFF's 58th-best collegiate player.

Then, this past season, he racked up 1,894 all-purpose yards and 20 total touchdowns, winning the Doak Walker Award and being named a unanimous first-team All-American in the process. PFF graded him as the second-best running back in the country. He solidified himself as a three-down back with a rare combination of power, speed, and vision.

Robinson dominated the pre-draft process, running a 4.46s 40-yard dash and scoring a 96 total score on NFL Next Gen Stats' Draft Model. Despite an ongoing movement against first-round running backs, Robinson was selected No. 8 overall by Atlanta.

Robinson as a Falcon

Robinson's fit in Atlanta was puzzling for some after they just got 1,035 yards out of 5th round pick Tyler Allgeier and still have a jack-of-all-trades, Cordarrelle Patterson, on the roster. The position battle between Robinson and Allgeier will be one worth monitoring ahead of Week 1, but there are plenty of touches to go around in Arthur Smith's offense.

Atlanta was the single-most rush-happy team in the league last season, rushing 559 times (32.9 per game) while racking up 2,718 yards (159.9 per game) -- the third-most yards in the NFL.

That was hardly a one-off. Arthur Smith has consistently made running the ball a priority. Smith served as the Tennessee Titansoffensive coordinator in 2019 and 2020. Over those two years, the Titans ranked: 10th and 2nd in attempts; 3rd and 2nd in yards; and 2nd (twice) in touchdowns. Those two seasons also coincided with the two best years of Derrick Henry's career:

Bijan Robinson is not Derrick Henry. No one is. However, Robinson is one of the highest-graded RB prospects in recent memory and could take on a similar workload.

Robinson's Floor

Here's a breakdown of Atlanta's running game last year:

• Tyler Allgeier: 210 carries (37.5%)
• Cordarrelle Patterson: 144 carries (25.7%)
• Marcus Mariota: 85 carries (15.2%)
• Caleb Huntley: 76 carries (13.6%)

Even if Allgeier garners around 35% of their carries again, there are plenty of rushes for Robinson.

Patterson is 32 years old and Arthur Smith has already hinted at him returning to more of the pass-catching role he had in 2021. Mariota is gone, replaced by a QB in Desmond Ridder, who rushed just 16 times in his four starts. As for Huntley, he's an undrafted signee coming off a serious Achilles injury.

Assuming Atlanta's first-round pick swallows up a majority of those three's rushing work, it's easy to see how he could approach a 40% rushing share even if the team keeps Allgeier heavily involved. If the Falcons continue to run at the pace they did last season, that puts Bijan on pace for nearly 225 carries.

Last season, only 11 backs eclipsed 225 carries, and Robinson has the pedigree to match any of them. If that's his floor, we could be looking at one of the safest RBs in the 2023 fantasy season.

Robinson's Ceiling

However, you aren't using a first-round pick on someone for their safe floor. If you're taking Bijan Robinson at his current ADP (1.08 overall; RB3), you're betting on him having a Saquon Barkley-esque rookie season.

We established Robinson's floor assuming the Falcons operate with a split backfield between Tyler Allgeier and Bijan. However, what if they turn the keys over to Robinson entirely?

It's hard to imagine Arthur Smith giving Robinson the same 70% rush share he gave Derrick Henry in Tennessee, but it's not crazy to think he could eclipse 50%. That would put Bijan at nearly 280 carries -- a number only four backs garnered last season. Considering the draft capital Atlanta used on him, Atlanta will likely feature Robinson early and often in 2023.

Final Verdict

With his combination of age, pedigree, and talent coupled with Atlanta's scheme, Bijan Robinson is going to be a fantasy force in 2023. Atlanta's preseason is one to keep an eye on considering Bijan's only question marks revolve around his workload.

Bijan Robinson is someone worth targeting in the latter half of the first round, and he's an automatic pick if he falls into the second. He has a similar ceiling as Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler but none of the injury or age concerns.

Of all running backs, he's the one I'm most confident will finish as a top-12 back. Draft Bijan with confidence and enjoy the ride.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.