Patriots vs. Bears Picks: 3 Best Bets, NFL Player Props for TNF

Patriots vs Bears Best Bets at a Glance

• Under 50.5 Points (-110)
• Drake Maye Under 248.5 Passing Yards (-114)
• Luther Burden III Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Week 7 kicks off Thursday night with the Chicago Bears hosting the New England Patriots at Soldier Field.

Both teams enter the matchup at 4-2, but they have taken very different paths offensively. Chicago is coming off a 31-23 win over Atlanta in Caleb Williams' return to the lineup while New England has leaned on Drake Maye despite some significant home-road volatility from its quarterback. The Patriots are averaging 22.7 points per game while the Bears are scoring 25.0 per contest.

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, let's break down three Patriots-Bears best bets for Thursday Night Football.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Patriots vs Bears Prop Bets, Picks for Thursday Night Football

Under 50.5 Points (-110)

This total feels a little high given the way both defenses have played and, more importantly, how different Drake Maye has looked away from Foxborough.

Maye's 2026 home-road splits are about as stark as it gets. In three home games, he has completed 65.9% of his passes for 817 yards, 7 touchdowns, 1 interception, and a 117.5 passer rating. In three road games, he's completed only 62.1% of his throws for 646 yards with 4 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, and a 69.9 passer rating. His yards per attempt has also fallen from 9.3 at home to 6.8 on the road.

That matters against a Chicago Bears defense that has been much tougher at Soldier Field. The Bears have allowed only 366 passing yards across their two home games, with opposing quarterbacks producing 1 touchdown against 2 interceptions and a 70.0 passer rating.

The bigger-picture defensive numbers also support a lower-scoring game. The New England Patriots are allowing 18.8 points per game and ranks sixth in total defense at 300.8 yards allowed per contest, while Chicago is surrendering 19.8 points and 302.3 total yards per game.

With Maye's road struggles and two defenses that have been among the better units in the league through six weeks, I'd rather bet against this matchup getting into the 50s.

Drake Maye Under 248.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Maye's road splits also make his passing-yard under one of my favorite player props on the board.

His season-long average sits at 243.8 passing yards per game, already below this number, and the location split makes the case much stronger. Maye has averaged just 215.3 passing yards across his three road starts, compared to 272.3 per game at home.

He has also been significantly less efficient outside New England. Along with the drop to 6.8 yards per attempt, Maye has thrown six of his seven interceptions on the road. New England's passing offense as a whole has generated only 664 net passing yards across its three road games compared to 797 at home.

Chicago isn't an elite pass defense statistically, but it has allowed only 211.8 passing yards per game overall. The Bears have also been much better against opposing passers at home, making this a more difficult setup than Maye's overall season numbers might suggest.

Luther Burden III Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Luther Burden III has emerged as Chicago's most productive receiver, and his current receiving-yard line looks attainable.

Burden enters Week 7 with 31 receptions on 44 targets for 361 yards through six games. That works out to 60.2 receiving yards per game, and he leads the Bears in receiving yardage.

His role also appears to be trending in the right direction with Caleb Williams back under center. In Week 6, Burden and Colston Loveland combined for 13 receptions, 160 yards, and a touchdown as Williams completed 30 of 36 attempts for 305 yards against the Atlanta Falcons.

New England's defense has been solid overall, but it is still allowing 209.0 passing yards per game while Chicago's offense has shown a willingness to lean on the pass when Williams is healthy.

Burden has seen 44 targets already, and his 361 receiving yards rank comfortably ahead of Chicago's other pass-catchers. There’s also a chance outside WR Rome Odunze is the primary assignment for Pats star CB Christian Gonzalez, which would be a boost for Burden’s outlook.

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NFL Betting Frequently Asked Questions

What is an NFL point spread?

A point spread is designed to level the playing field between two teams. Favorites must win by more than the spread, while underdogs can either win outright or lose by fewer points than the spread.

What is an NFL moneyline bet?

A moneyline bet is simply picking which team will win the game. Favorites have negative odds, while underdogs have positive odds.

What are NFL player props?

Player prop bets focus on an individual player's performance, such as passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, touchdowns, or receptions, rather than the outcome of the game.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.