START YOUR OWN WINNING STREAK

Player Image
SportsBookLogo
Chevrons Texture
NFL

3 Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 5

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8

Subscribe to our newsletter

3 Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 5

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up in the betting market via the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to measuring a player's potential to produce in NFL DFS on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our NFL projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NFL player props that look appealing for this week.

All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NFL Prop Picks for Week 5

Ja'Marr Chase 90+ Receiving Yards (+165)

In Ja'Marr Chase's rookie season, he dominated the Baltimore Ravens with 163.0 receiving yards per game over two contests. This same level of dominance has not been present in recent games; in fact, Chase is logging only 21.5 receiving yards per contest in his last two against the Ravens.

However, Baltimore's defense looks way more human than last season as former defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald is now the head man at the Seattle Seahawks. The Ravens currently hold the 12th-worst schedule-adjusted defense while allowing 22.0 points per game (PPG), which is the 16th-most.

The secondary especially looks vulnerable as the 14th-worst adjusted unit. That spells trouble against the Cincinnati Bengals. Joe Burrow has been like a man on fire, posting 278.0 passing yards per game, 2.5 passing touchdowns per game, and 0.34 expected points added per dropback (EPA/db) over his last two outings, via NFL's Next Gen Stats.

The Chase and Burrow deep connection is alive and well headed into this contest. Ja'Marr has provided at least one 40-yard play in back-to-back games while logging 101.5 receiving yards per game and 22.5 yards per catch during the span. The efficiency from Cincy's top target has been out of control at 49.4 receiving yards over expectation (RecYOE) per game.

Ja'Marr Chase - Alt Receiving Yds
Ja'Marr Chase 90+ Yards

Adding to the worries for the Ravens' pass defense, the unit has given up the second-most deep yards in football. With Chase regularly bringing in deep balls over his last two, he's poised for another standout performance.

Our DFS projections have Chase in line for the fourth-most receiving yards at his position this week. The 79.5 receiving yard-projection is above his 71.5 receiving yard prop. I'm willing to take this even a step further by taking his alternate line for 90+ receiving yards (+165).

Josh Jacobs Over 14.5 Rushing Attempts (-114)

Week 4's 31-29 loss against the Minnesota Vikings was not a good day for the Green Bay Packers' run game. They trailed 28-0 in the second quarter, meaning the Packers were fighting from behind in a negative game script pretty much the whole way.

After averaging 37.0 rushing attempts per game over the first three weeks, Green Bay logged only 19 carries a week ago. For reference, there's a three-way tie for the most rushing attempts per game at 34.5 right now. That's how often the Pack was running the ball before their humbling deficit in Week 4. Will Green Bay return to a heavy running attack?

It's unlikely as the Packers' rushing attempts were way up in Week 2 and Week 3 with Jordan Love out due to a knee injury. This led to Green Bay logging only 16.5 passing attempts per game with Malik Willis at the helm.

Overall, we should expect a more balanced approach in Week 5 against the Los Angeles Rams. The Packers should be able to attack the Rams in any which way, for L.A. holds the fourth-worst schedule-adjusted run defense and second-worst adjust pass defense. The Rams rank as numberFire's second-worst defense in power rankings.

Focusing on the run, Los Angeles is allowing 5.0 yards per carry (fifth-most) and 165.5 rushing yards per contest (the most). The Rams have given up 95.0 rushing yards over expectation (RYOE) -- the fifth-most in football.

Josh Jacobs - Rush Attempts

Josh Jacobs Over
Oct 6 8:25pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Josh Jacobs should be in store for a decent workload, going over his 14.5 rushing attempts. He's been efficient this season, logging 0.74 RYOE per carry (RYOE/C) -- including 0.24 RYOE/C from Week 4.

Our projections also have Jacobs forecasted for 15.2 rushing attempts on Sunday. With the Packers listed as three-point favorites this week, a positive game script is likely. Give me Jacobs to go over his rushing attempt prop.

Justin Fields Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+135)

Few teams are giving up rushing touchdowns like the Dallas Cowboys, who surrender 2.0 rushing touchdowns per contest (tied for the most). The Pittsburgh Steelers feature one of the heaviest rushing attacks in the NFL, logging 34.5 rushing attempts per game (tied for the most). Backing the Steelers' run game in nearly any category is one of the best targets of the week.

Among Pittsburgh rushing props, Justin Fields to log an anytime touchdown (+135) feels like the best value here. He's totaled three rushing touchdowns over his last two appearances.

Any Time Touchdown Scorer
Justin Fields

The Steelers haven't been afraid to utilize Fields' legs, for he's attempting 9.5 carries per game. His 1.28 RYOE/C from Week 4 only points to more attempts for Fields against a stumbling run defense.

Dallas' defensive line -- their biggest strength on defense -- is decimated by injuries, as well. Sam Williams' torn ACL in the offseason was a sign of things to come. Demarcus Lawrence was placed on the injured reserve list due to a foot injury. The biggest piece of the puzzle, Micah Parsons, looks doubtful to play with a high ankle sprain.

As if the Cowboys giving up 145.8 rushing yards per game (seventh-most) wasn't enough, Pittsburgh should be looking to ride the run game even more with injuries all over Dallas' D-line.

Rushing touchdowns are certainly in the picture for the Steelers in Sunday night's bout. Najee Harris (50.0%) and Fields (45.8%) are nearly even in red zone rushing attempt share. Fields' +135 line to score a touchdown is the much better take compared Harris at -105. The two are actually dead even in red zone carry share over the last two games (46.2% each).

Ultimately, I'm taking Fields here as the signal-caller has taken three of Pittsburgh's four carries within the five-yard line this season (75.0%).


New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $200 in Bonus Bets guaranteed after your first bet of $5+ is placed! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for the latest NFL odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NFL betting options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!


The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

Subscribe to our newsletter

Want more stories like this?

Sign up to our newsletter to receive the latest news.

Newsletter Signup
Newsletter Signup