NFL Expert Best Bets, Predictions, and Player Props for Week 5

Each week throughout the NFL season, the staff here at FanDuel Research will bring you their three favorite bets on the board -- one side, one total, and one player prop from the NFL betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

They'll also share some insight into one of the picks to provide you with reasoning as to why they're on that bet.

Here's what our staff likes for this week.

Note: All odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Betting lines and our NFL projections may change after this article is published.

NFL Expert Picks for Week 5

Austin Swaim, Senior Editor

Spread/Moneyline: Steelers -2.5 (-115)

Total: Colts-Jaguars Over 46.5 (-105)

Player Prop: Najee Harris Any Time Touchdown (-105)

With Jaylen Warren and Cordarrelle Patterson missing practice, it could be a huge week for Harris in a matchup that should let him chow. The Dallas Cowboys are already numberFire's 30th-ranked rush defense and will be down both Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence for this one. Najee has seen a healthy 3.3 red zone opportunities per game thus far and hasn't scored all season. Our Week 5 fantasy football projections expect 0.68 touchdowns from Harris on Sunday night.

Austan Kas, Senior Editor

Spread/Moneyline: Ravens -2.5 (-110)

Total: Saints-Chiefs Under 42.5 (-105)

Player Prop: Zay Flowers Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

Kenyatta Storin, Senior Editor

Spread/Moneyline: Vikings -2.5 (-110)

Total: Browns-Commanders Over 43.5 (-110)

Relying on this Deshaun Watson-led offense to help produce an over isn't ideal, but this is all about the Washington Commanders being a fantastic matchup for producing shootouts, going well over this number in three of their four games. Not only do the Commanders have numberFire's worst schedule-adjusted defense, but they also possess the top adjusted offense. This pairing also projects as one of the week's best in terms of both pace and pass rate, further pointing to the over.

Player Prop: Dontayvion Wicks Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Aidan Cotter, Writer

Spread/Moneyline: Seahawks -6.5 (-120)

Total: Packers-Rams Over 48.5 (-115)

Jordan Love did his best Jameis Winston impression in his return to the field last week, throwing for nearly 400 yards and 4 touchdowns, but also 3 interceptions. That kind of up-and-down play bodes well for a high-scoring indoor game between the Green Bay Packers and Los Angeles Rams this week. With the Rams down at 31st in schedule-adjusted defense, we just need the LA offense to show up in some capacity to push this game over 48.5.

Player Prop: Justice Hill Over 2.5 Receptions (-140)

Riley Thomas, Writer

Spread/Moneyline: Commanders -3 (-120)

Total: Panthers-Bears Under 41.5 (-115)

Player Prop: Ja'Marr Chase Over 71.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

Joe Burrow has been cooking over his last two games, logging 0.34 expected points added per dropback. His favorite target, Chase, is also totaling 101.5 receiving yards per game, 22.6 yards per catch, and 49.4 receiving yards over expectation per game over the last two. The Ravens have given up the 2nd-most deep yards in the league while holding the 14th-worst schedule-adjusted pass defense. This is shaping up to be another monster outing for Chase.

Skyler Carlin, Writer

Spread/Moneyline: Packers -3 (-115)

Total: Cowboys-Steelers Over 43.5 (-115)

Player Prop: D.K. Metcalf Over 65.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

With the Seattle Seahawks posting the highest pass rate over expected in the NFL (+6.8%) through four weeks, Metcalf is leading Seattle in target share (23.4%), air yards share (42.7%), yards per route run (2.36), and average depth of target (12.2), via NextGenStats. Metcalf has 104-plus receiving yards in three straight games, and the New York Giants are allowing the third-highest completion percentage over expected (+0.05%) and the ninth-most deep yards per target (12.0).

Jim Sannes, Managing Editor

Spread/Moneyline: 49ers -7.5 (-105)

Total: Cardinals-49ers Over 49.5 (-110)

Taking the over on a big-boy total like this is a rarity, but I've got this as the fourth-highest total in my model, which dates back to Week 15 of 2022. At 53.1 points, we've got a good amount of wiggle room, and we get a win on a big key number of 51. I just don't see how the Arizona Cardinals contain the San Francisco 49ers, and with Fred Warner banged up, Arizona should be able to do at least something on offense.

Player Prop: Josh Jacobs Over 81.5 Rushing Plus Receiving Yards (-113)

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.