WNBA Best Bets and Player Props for Friday 10/4/24

The WNBA postseason is rolling along, and fans and bettors alike can get into the action on FanDuel Sportsbook.

The W's season offers a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. While there's a lot to sift through, advanced stats from the WNBA can help us find an edge in the betting market.

Let's dive into the WNBA odds on FanDuel Sportsbook and find today's best bets.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

WNBA Best Bets

Minnesota Lynx at Connecticut Sun

Sun -2.5 (-106)
Marina Mabrey Over 15.5 Points (-120)

This series is knotted at one and has directly correlated to which teams are hitting their triples. The Connecticut Sun took Game 1 with a 40.9% rate from outside, and the Minnesota Lynx responded with a 42.1% shooting display from downtown in Game 2.

Following that same tenor, you have to favor Connecticut to pull away and win tonight's Game 3. Over the last 10 games of the regular season, the Sun had a 52.3% effective field goal rate (eFG%) compared to the Lynx's 50.5% mark. It's important to concentrate these teams down to the smaller, post-break sample because Marina Mabrey has made a huge impact for the Sun since coming over via trade on July 17th.

Mabrey actually leads the Sun in usage rate during the playoffs (25.5%), and her 2-for-8 struggles from deep in Game 2 were a huge reason that Connecticut fell behind. A return closer to her 14-for-33 efforts from deep (42.4%) in the first three playoff games could lead to a comfortable win for the home side.

Rotowire projects Mabrey for 16.3 points per 36 minutes in tonight's game, and she's averaged 36.8 minutes in the playoffs so far.

New York Liberty at Las Vegas Aces

Aces Over 83.5 Points (-115)
A'ja Wilson to Record 10+ Rebounds (-138)

Though the Las Vegas Aces are down 2-0, I wouldn't be shocked to see this series head back to the Big Apple knotted.

Las Vegas is a brutal out at home because of their dynamic shooting ability, leading the WNBA in eFG% (53.1%) in their own building this season. That dropped to 51.4% on the road, which was fourth among all teams.

However, both of those marks also trump Vegas' 50.4% rate in the first two games of this series, which has -- no doubt -- been impacted by a New York Liberty squad that held the W's third-best defensive rating (95.3 dRTG) this season. I just think holding A'ja Wilson and crew under 45.0% from the field isn't super sustainable, and that might start Friday at Michelob Ultra Arena. DRatings projects 84.3 points for Las Vegas tonight.

However, I'm looking to the boards for where Wilson has been dramatically underperforming in this series. She averaged 12.4 rebounds per 36 minutes this season -- and 10.0 per game in a pair of contests against the Liberty this season. Yet, the three-time MVP has yet to top seven boards in the first two games of the semifinals.

With Las Vegas' season essentially on the line, I'm expecting max effort from Wilson on the boards to right the ship. Rotowire has her projected for 12.4 rebounds in this one, which would roughly translate to -378 odds for double digits if correct.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.