2024 Breeders' Futurity Stakes Preview

Saturday’s card at Keeneland features one of the major Breeders’ Cup Juvenile preps, as well as a stage on the road to the 2025 Kentucky Derby. This race is the Grade 1, $600,000 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity Stakes. The 1 1/16-mile dirt race, a two-year-old feature, drew a field of 11 to compete for that purse, an automatic bid to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and 10-5-3-2-1 Kentucky Derby points.

Two of the last four Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners, Forte (2022) and Essential Quality (2020), won the Breeders’ Futurity on the way to their championships. Other winners of this Keeneland feature who have gone on to win at the Breeders’ Cup include Classic Empire (2016), Boston Harbor (1996), and Tasso (1985).

2024 Breeders' Futurity Information

• Race Date: Saturday, October 5
• Track: Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Ky.
• Post Time: 5:16 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time
• Distance: one and one-sixteenth miles on the dirt
• Age/Sex: two-year-olds
• Where to Watch: FanDuel TV
• Where to Bet: FanDuel Racing

Breeders' Futurity Draw and Odds

These 11 horses entered the 2024 Breeders’ Futurity. They are in order of post position, along with their trainers, jockeys, and morning-line odds.

Breeders' Futurity Prep Race Results

All eleven runners in the Breeders’ Futurity come out of different races.

Four runners come out of stakes races, though none of them actually won those stakes. Ferocious is the only one coming out of a Grade 1; he was a good second behind Chancer McPatrick in the Hopeful (G1) at Saratoga on September 2. Mesero, a chasing fourth behind Jonathan’s Way in the Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs on September 14, is the only other one coming out of a dirt stakes.

Two others come out of turf stakes. Tenacious Leader finished second by a neck in the With Anticipation (G3) on August 29 on the Saratoga lawn, though he did break his maiden on conventional dirt earlier in the meet. Ready for Peace was third in the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile on September 8, and will attempt dirt for the first time in the Breeders’ Futurity.

All seven other runners come out of maiden special weight victories. Two of them come out of true two-turn wins: Handsome Pants won at 1 1/16 miles at Churchill Downs, and Saratoga Cruiser graduated going a mile at Horseshoe Indianapolis on August 20. One other, Filoso, comes out of a maiden victory over the one-mile chute trip at Saratoga.

The other four come out of maiden wins over one-turn trips. Optical won at a mile at Churchill Downs, Dapper Moon graduated at seven furlongs at Saratoga, Big Boat won going six furlongs at Churchill Downs, and East Avenue scored going six furlongs at Ellis.

Breeders' Futurity Stakes Contenders

These are the 11 entrants for the 2024 Breeders’ Futurity:

1. Ferocious: One of the most hyped juveniles of his class, this million-dollar purchase graduated over the Saratoga mud on debut, winning by 7 ¾ lengths in stalk-and-pounce fashion. He got a tracking trip in the Hopeful next out over fast ground, but could not hold off the late run of Chancer McPatrick and had to settle for a half-length second. He has drawn at or near the inside in both of his starts, meaning he has a chance to handle a rail draw again, though the price will be short, given the possibility of an early snarl. That said, he is fast, and it would be no surprise to see him handle 1 1/16 miles.
2. Saratoga Cruiser: He got up to win on debut in late-running fashion in a dirt mile at Horseshoe Indianapolis and now steps up to the big time. A two-turn win is good to see, but that race came back slow and a closing trip often isn’t the best at Keeneland anyway.
3. Optical: He has four starts underneath him, making him the most seasoned horse in the field. And, when he figured it out fourth time out, he figured it out big time, setting the pace and winning by 14 lengths. It was a sharp step forward, but he still has to show whether he needs the lead. After all, he woke up the first time he set the early fractions, and this time he’s going to have to deal with at least East Avenue outside him.
4. Handsome Pants: He is the only horse in the field who has tried 1 1/16 miles before, and he was able to rally from midfield, battle in the lane, and win. Trainer Kenny McPeek is a three-time winner of this race, so he knows what he is doing here, and his top-notch rider Brian Hernandez, Jr. keeps the call. He has some appeal, at least for exotics: there may not be enough pace to set up unless he sits closer, but the seasoning at the distance could put him in the frame.
5. East Avenue: He was well bet on debut at Ellis on August 24, and he ran to the money, setting the pace at every call and winning by eight lengths. His pedigree suggests he’ll be even better at this longer distance, and especially if he can outjump long shot Optical early he may be able to make the running and kiss them goodbye down the short stretch.
6. Filoso: He finished a closing fourth in his sprint debut but moved forward nicely to graduate second-out, on the stretch to a mile. It isn’t completely out of the question to think he will take another step forward in his third start, and 1 1/16 miles isn’t completely out of the question, though trainer Chad Summers tends to underperform in both graded-stakes races and with last-out maiden winners.
7. Mesero: He graduated at first asking on debut sprinting on the Ellis mud, though he came back to run only a flat fourth in the Iroquois next out. Trainer Dale Romans is solid with runners making their second start at a mile or more, but he has only won once in his last 78 graded-stakes starts (Giant Game, in the 2023 Prairie Meadows Cornhusker Handicap (G3)), with only 19 of those 78 even hitting the board.
8. Big Boat: Chicago-based trainer Jimmy DiVito saw fit to ship this pricey son of Nyquist to Churchill Downs for his unveiling, and he rewarded the decision with a 3 ½-length maiden win in a six-furlong sprint. His pedigree suggests he should have no trouble stretching out, and the longer distance may put him a bit closer to the pace. It’s a concern that the barn doesn’t always fire with new routers, but he can get a fairly clean trip with this draw and DiVito does excel with last-out maiden winners.
9. Tenacious Leader: Though he turned up flat on his sprint debut, a stretch out to the chute mile at Saratoga was just what the doctor ordered, and he stalked and pounced to win well clear of second-place Clock Tower. Clock Tower looks like a good one: he won by 6 ½ lengths in a turf mile maiden at Kentucky Downs next out and is resurfacing in the Bourbon (G2). Tenacious Leader himself missed by a neck in the With Anticipation to Zulu Kingdom, who already came back to win the Pilgrim (G2). His class is unassailable, his fastest race yet came on dirt, and he fits well.
10. Dapper Moon: He closed for second on debut in a six-furlong sprint, but showed better tactical speed second-out to break his maiden by five lengths going seven furlongs at the Spa. A stalking trip could be the right one this time, too, though he needs to prove he can get the distance: Malibu Moon on top is a plus, though his underside is very sprint-oriented (by Old Fashioned out of a half to Kelly Kip).
11. Ready for Peace: This Ignacio Correas trainee is the only runner who has yet to try the dirt. He graduated on debut going a mile at Colonial Downs, and then ran third in the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile. He will have to improve significantly to be a factor in this spot. There is some upside on dirt—sire More Than Ready is versatile, and he is half to Joevia, a dirt stakes winner who also ran third in the 2019 Belmont. But, it may be prudent to watch this time.

Breeders' Futurity FAQ

Q: When and where is the Breeders' Futurity?

A: The race happens Saturday, October 5 at 5:16 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Kentucky. The race is carded as the ninth of 11 on Saturday’s card, and is the fourth of five graded stakes on the card.

Q: Which trainer has the most wins in the Breeders' Futurity?

A: The leading trainer in the Breeders’ Futurity is D. Wayne Lukas. His six winners include Dance Floor (1991), Mountain Cat (1992), Honour and Glory (1995), Boston Harbor (1996), Cat Thief (1998), and Consolidator (2004). Lukas is still an active trainer, but does not have a starter in the 2024 edition. Among the trainers with entrants in the race, Dale Romans and Todd Pletcher are tied for the most with four wins each. Romans entered Mesero, while Pletcher has Tenacious Leader.

Q: Who is the favorite for the Breeders' Futurity?

A: Off of his impressive maiden win and quality second-place finish in the Hopeful, Ferocious is the 8-5 morning-line favorite for trainer Gustavo Delgado, and should hold favoritism at post time.

Q: Who is the best Breeders' Futurity jockey?

A: Jockey Don Brumfield won the Breeders’ Futurity a record five times between 1969 and 1979. Among riders in the 2024 field, Jose Ortiz (Ready for Peace) and John Velazquez (Filoso) are tied with two wins each, the most in the group.

Q: Who won the Breeders' Futurity in 2023?

A: Locked won the 2023 Breeders’ Futurity for trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey Jose Ortiz. Pletcher sends out Tenacious Leader with Florent Geroux in the irons, while Ortiz rides Ready for Peace for Ignacio Correas, IV.

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