College Football Playoff Quarterfinals: Best Bets and Props for Texas vs. Arizona State

New Year's Day is headlined by three quarterfinal contests in the College Football Playoff. Following a bout between the Penn State Nittany Lions and Boise State Broncos in the Fiesta Bowl on New Year's Eve, the Texas Longhorns and Arizona State Sun Devils kick off the first game of New Year's at 1 p.m. ET in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl.

Arizona State comes off bye and is red-hot with a six-game winning streak while covering six consecutive contests. The reigning Big 12 champions come in as notable 12.5-point underdogs against Texas, though. The Longhorns are still viewed as one of the nation's most talented teams and sport the shortest odds to win the national championship (+310).

Using the college football odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, let's dig into the Peach Bowl matchup. Will the Sun Devils have enough to make this interesting, or will the Longhorns roll as expected?

All college football odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl Betting Picks and Props

Arizona State +12.5 (-110)

The 38-24 final against the Clemson Tigers suggests Texas cruised in the first round of the playoffs. At one point, the Longhorns were up 31-10 in the third quarter, but Clemson stormed back by cutting the lead to 31-24 with about 12 minutes of play remaining. UT's defense gave up 412 yards, 336 passing yards, and 7.8 yards per passing attempt.

The Longhorns' schedule has been in question for weeks now as they've face only one opponent in the top 15 of net EPA per play. That opponent was the Georgia Bulldogs, who handed Texas both of its losses.

With that said, I'm not sure if the win over Clemson does much to change the perception around the Longhorns. The Tigers are the second-worst team in the 12-team field for net EPA per play, ranking 17th in the category. While Arizona State is still one of the weaker teams in the field, ranked 13th in the category, this is only the second team Texas will have faced in the top 15 of the category.

Overall, this spread feels far too generous to the Longhorns. If the Sun Devils had their top wideout Jordyn Tyson, a moneyline pick would be in the picture. Tyson is out indefinitely, meaning this team will probably keep leaning on its star running back Cam Skattebo. Texas has actually been weaker at defending the run, ranked seventh in EPA allowed per rushing attempt compared to second against the pass.

The Longhorns have seen one team in the top 12 of EPA per rushing attempt. As you probably guessed, it was Georgia -- who totaled over 100 rushing yards in both meetings. The Bulldogs scampered to 141 yards in the SEC Championship clash.

Additionally, the Sun Devils' defense is also a bit better at stopping the run, ranked 16th in EPA allowed per carry compared to 23rd against the pass. Texas has tended to lean on the run more over the last couple of months. That fueled the win over Clemson, for the Longhorns racked up 292 rushing yards and 6.1 yards per carry. We've seen quarterback Quinn Ewers post a passing grade of 70.0 or better only once over his last four games, per Pro Football Focus. If Arizona State can limit the run, this could get interesting.

The Sun Devils also have a nose for the ball, forcing 1.7 takeaways per contest (top 22%) paired with a +1.1 turnover margin (top 4%). Considering UT averages 1.6 turnovers per game (bottom 27%), the turnover battle is a key area to watch.

numberFire's college football game projections have ASU losing by about 9.5 points. If correct, this gives the Sun Devils a 60.1% likelihood of covering the spread compared to the current -110 odds holding only a 52.4% implied probability. Arizona State has been counted out all season and is 11-2 against the spread (ATS); that's difficult to bet against.

Under 51.5 Points (-115)

Along with Arizona State to cover, the under would be a good pairing. If this game has fewer points than expected, this should only increase the Devils' chances of keeping this close as big 12.5-point underdogs.

We have some solid evidence for this pick, too. We mentioned Arizona State's defense typically defends the run best, and Texas has failed to cover its last four games when it was under 200 rushing yards and 4.0 yards per carry. In those four games, the Longhorns also logged only 17.8 points per game (PPG). That's far below UT's 31.5-point team total, further contributing to this under pick.

The Sun Devils have seen plenty of good rushing attacks this season, facing six teams within the top 25 of EPA per rushing attempt. In this sample size, ASU allowed 4.4 yards per carry and 139.3 rushing yards per game. Neither mark is that inspiring, but Texas has reached 240 rushing yards in three of its past four games. If the Longhorns are around that 140-yard rushing mark, you got to like Arizona State's chances of limiting this offense -- especially with up and down play from Ewers.

The Longhorns are 3rd in EPA allowed per play, and the best defense ASU has faced up to this point was the Iowa State Cyclones, ranking 20th in the category. This is a huge step up in competition, and we shouldn't overlook UT also boasting the sixth-best third down defense and third-best red zone defense while forcing 2.1 takeaways per game (eighth-most). Pair this with ASU's ability to take the ball away, and we could see several successful drives end with no points.

Assuming this game heads toward a Sun Devils cover, that should mean the tempo of this game also favors Arizona State. Texas is in the top 29% for the fewest seconds per play while ASU in the top 17% for the most seconds per play. The Devils will likely look to slow this game down while making it ugly, giving even more support for the under.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.