College Football Playoff Quarterfinals: Best Bets and Props for Penn State vs. Boise State

The winner of this year's Fiesta Bowl might make some major noise in the championship picture.

New Year's Eve will be punctuated by the first game of the College Football Playoff (CFP) Quarterfinals between the Penn State Nittany Lions and Boise State Broncos. The Nittany Lions dominated a First Round game at Beaver Stadium, stomping the SMU Mustangs by a score of 38-10.

Meanwhile, we haven't seen Boise since a second win of the year over the UNLV Rebels. This is their first ranked battle since the three-point loss to the Oregon Ducks that catapulted their 12-1 season into a first-round bye.

Whether Penn State or Boise States advances, they'll face a squad with plenty of questions. Which one will do so?

Using the college football odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, let's dive into the best bets for Tuesday's Vrbo Fiesta Bowl with a 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff.

All college football odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Penn State vs. Boise State Best Bets and Player Props

Penn State -11.5 (-110)

My fear for Boise in this contest is that sophomore Maddux Madsen ends up on an island like SMU sophomore Kevin Jennings did. It's not a pleasant island, either.

Penn State held the Mustangs to just 58 yards rushing despite their talented running back, Brashard Smith, entering with seven 100-yard rushing games. They're prone to do that; Penn State was ninth in rushing yards per attempt (3.1 YPA) allowed across all of FBS.

Obviously, Ashton Jeanty appears to be an entirely different animal averaging 192.1 yards per game, but Smith also faced significantly tougher ACC competition than Jeanty in the Mountain West. This game could quickly spiral if Jeanty is bottled up. Jennings recorded a 13.8 QBR with four turnovers.

Ultimately, it's a tough sell that an 11.5-point underdog hangs around on the strength of their running back against one of the country's best run defenses. Boise has produced some magic in this very bowl game, but the way the "We Are" manhandled the ACC's best statistical defense, the smaller Mountain West team with no NFL prospects on either line seems outmatched.

Drew Allar Over 225.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Drew Allar Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-132)

One of the reasons I gave out a bet on Drew Aller's odds to lead the CFP in passing yards was his opportunity to play the maximum of four games. The other was this projected matchup.

After consecutive pick-sixes to start the First Round against SMU, Penn State didn't need much of Allar. He threw for just 127 yards on 22 attempts.

SMU, though, ranked 32nd in FBS in passing YPA allowed (6.5). Even against lesser competition in the MWC, Boise State ranked 82nd in the country (7.6). The Broncos also were a top-25 team against the rush in that regard (3.6 YPA), funneling opponents to the air even on a per-attempt basis.

Therefore, it's plausible the Nittany Lions actually need their NFL Draft prospect at quarterback in this one to build the lead. With that the case, I have confidence in Allar to deliver. He was 11th in QBR this year (80.5) despite facing seven top-50 schools in passing YPA allowed.

These props also work as a tiny bit of a hedge the Broncos keep it close; Allar averaged 251.8 passing yards and 1.5 passing touchdowns in four one-score games this year, and this is a much softer matchup than any of those.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.