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3 Best NFL SGP Bets for Week 5

Aidan Cotter
Aidan CotterAidanCotterFD

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3 Best NFL SGP Bets for Week 5

Looking for a new way to bet on the NFL this season? A Same Game Parlay (SGP) via the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook might be the answer!

SGPs allow you to combine two or more selections from the same game for a higher potential payout. For more information about parlays, SGP, and SGP+, head over to FanDuel.

This article will provide some SGPs builds to consider each week based on the games and props available, but there are plenty more popular parlay ideas available at FanDuel's Parlay Hub, too!

Which correlated bets stand out for this week's NFL action?

All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NFL SGP Bets to Target: Week 5

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals

Over 48.5 Total Points
Lamar Jackson Over 53.5 Rushing Yards
Justice Hill Over 2.5 Receptions

Combined Odds: +422

The Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals square off at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday in what's expected to be one of the better games of the week. It has the slate's second highest over/under (48.5) to go along with a tight spread (Ravens -2.5).

I'm expecting a back-and-forth game, so we'll kick off this Same Game Parlay with over 48.5 total points.

These are two offenses that can score with the best of them. They're both top 10 in points per game while Baltimore is third in schedule-adjusted offense and Cincinnati is sixth. Both sides are outside the top 20 in adjusted defense, too, so we could see a scenario where neither defense is able to string together more than a couple of stops.

The Ravens and Bengals are both 3-1 toward the over this season.

If we're expecting a high-scoring affair, reigning MVP Lamar Jackson figures to be a big part of it.

Entering Week 5, Lamar is averaging 10.3 rush attempts and 77.0 rushing yards per game. Now, that's inflated by a 122-yard effort on the ground in Week 1, but he's still gone for 54-plus yards in three of four games overall. His season-low for rushing yards is 45, and this week's matchup shouldn't scare us off his rushing upside.

The Bengals haven't faced an onslaught of rushing quarterbacks this season, but they've consistently given up yards on the ground to the position. Jacoby Brissett totaled 32 rushing yards in Week 1, Patrick Mahomes went for 29 in Week 2, and Jayden Daniels notched 39 in Week 3. Heck, even Andy Dalton chipped in 9 rushing yards against them last week. Through four games, the Bengals have allowed the highest scramble rate in the NFL.

That puts Jackson in a nice spot to go over 53.5 rushing yards -- something he's done five times in a row against Cincinnati.

Lamar Jackson - Rushing Yds

Lamar Jackson Over
Oct 6 5:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

We'll wrap up this SGP with another Ravens prop -- Justice Hill over 2.5 receptions.

Justice Hill has recorded 6, 2, 2, and 6 receptions across four games this season. But after leading the team in target share (33.3%) last week, Hill is now tied for the second highest share on the Ravens. He's coming off a season-best 50% route rate, Granted, the Ravens have a truly eye-popping -15.4 pass rate over expectation (PROE) the last three games, lowest in the league.

But the Bengals' offense is rolling right now. Since Week 1, Cincy is third in offensive Net Expected Points per play (NEP; numberFire's EPA metric) -- right behind the Ravens. At home, the Bengals have a chance to hang with Baltimore offensively, which -- in turn -- should force the Ravens to keep their foot on the gas.

That would benefit Hill, and Cincy has been generous to receiving backs. They're in the bottom half of the league in running back target rate allowed, and they've surrendered the highest catch rate (95%) to the position. In what could be a back-and-forth game, look for Hill to snag at least three dump downs from Lamar.

Green Bay Packers at Las Angeles Rams

Over 48.5 Total Points (-115)
Kyren Williams Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-240)
Jordan Love Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-168)
Dontayvion Wicks Over 3.5 Receptions (-146)

Combined Odds: +350

What happens when two teams with leaky defenses and flashy quarterbacks face off indoors?

For starters, you get a 48.5-point total. That's how we'll kick off this Green Bay Packers-Los Angeles Rams SGP, taking over 48.5 total points.

The Packers are 16th in schedule-adjusted offense, one spot behind the Rams. But Green Bay has had Jordan Love in only two of their four games. Love was back last week, doing his best Jameis Winston impression with 389 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. His efforts helped push the final total of Vikings-Packers to a healthy 60 points. In the Pack's only other game with Love healthy, the final total was 63 points.

Green Bay is 13th in schedule-adjusted defense, but they've given up 30-plus points to two of the three top-15 offenses they faced. The Rams have faced similar struggles on that side of the ball, especially against the pass. They're 31st in schedule-adjusted pass defense, so Love is in position to lay on the points in an indoor game. And considering Matthew Stafford's pedigree and Green Bay's leaky secondary, the Rams should have enough juice to at least hang with the Packers. They scored 27 points in their lone previous home game, after all.

Total Match Points

Over
Oct 6 8:25pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

A big reason why I think the Rams can be competitive enough to push this game over is Kyren Williams.

Williams has taken on a massive workload with the Rams down two star receivers, averaging 21.5 rush attempts and 3.0 receptions over the last two games. He's seen a staggering 69.6% of LA's red zone opportunities during that stretch, including 7 red zone rush attempts per game. That puts him in a nice spot to score a touchdown -- something he's done in every game this season.

On the Packers' side, I think their passing attack will have a lot of success against the Rams' secondary. Considering Love has thrown for six touchdowns across two games this season, we can take him over 1.5 passing touchdowns against an LA defense that's allowed the third most passing touchdowns in football and has permitted the NFL's third highest passing success rate.

Love shouldn't have many issues moving the ball up and down the field before the Packers score, and that's where we can round out this Same Game Parlay -- with Dontayvion Wicks over 3.5 receptions. Wicks commanded a team-high 13 targets last week, finishing with 5 receptions. He saw his highest route rate (76.8%) of the season with Christian Watson departing early, and Watson is expected to miss this week's game.

In the last five games that Watson has played fewer than 20% of snaps, Wicks has averaged 4.2 receptions, 7.0 targets, and 57 yards per game. With the Rams allowing the fourth highest target rate to opposing receivers, Wicks should be in a good spot to grab at least four receptions

Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers 1st Half -1.5 (+100)
Najee Harris Over 64.5 (-114)
Dak Prescott Over 241.5 (-114)

Combined Odds: +473

We'll close things out with a Sunday Night Football Same Game Parlay, starting with the Pittsburgh Steelers to cover -1.5 against the Dallas Cowboys in the first half.

Now, Pittsburgh hasn't been a great first-half team. Despite their 3-1 record, the Steelers have gone into the half with a lead just once this season. They're bottom 10 in both first-half offensive NEP per play and success rate.

But with the Steelers coming off their first loss, this is an opportunity get out to an early lead at home. The Cowboys have gone into halftime down multiple touchdowns twice already this season, and they could be without two key defensive pieces in Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence. Considering Dallas was already 30th in schedule-adjusted run defense, I'm not sure how they're going to contain Justin Fields and Najee Harris.

Harris, in particular, is someone I'm eyeing for a bounce-back performance. Yes, he's coming off a brutal 19-yard game against the Colts, but Indy has quietly been a top-10 run defense this season, and they've turned into a heavy pass-funnel unit for opposing offenses. Harris exceeded 65 yards in each of his first three games, and I'm expecting the Steelers to turn back to the run game against a Dallas front that's surrendered the second most rushing EPA per carry to opposing running backs.

Najee Harris - Rushing Yds

Najee Harris Over
Oct 7 12:20am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Finally, in anticipating the Steelers getting out to an early lead, we'll close out this SGP with Dak Prescott over 241.5 passing yards.

Now, you might be asking why we're going with the over on Dak's yards if I like the Steelers so much. Well, Dak's gone over this line just twice this season -- both games where the Cowboys were trailing early. In the two games they've maintained an early lead, he's finished with just 179 and 221 passing yards.

But I don't envision Dallas' ground game managing much against Pittsburgh's top-ranked schedule-adjusted run defense, and we could see the Cowboys abandon the run entirely if they're chasing a first-half deficit. While the Steelers have a strong secondary, they're just 13th in yards per attempt allowed.

If Dallas lets Dak flirt with 40 pass attempts like they did in Weeks 2 and 3, we should see him go over this line.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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