3 NHL Best Bets and Predictions for Saturday 12/21/24

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.

NHL Betting Picks Today

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New York Islanders vs. Toronto Maple Leafs

Over 5.5 (-128)

The Toronto Maple Leafs are skating on the second night of a back-to-back on Saturday as they host the New York Islanders in an inter-divisional showdown. Toronto has been trending in a positive direction lately, and that trend should hold steady at Scotiabank Arena.

Toronto’s offensive production is through the roof. The Atlantic Division leaders have tallied 71 high-danger chances over their past five games, equalling 14.2 per contest. Likewise, scoring chances have been flowing naturally. Toronto has eclipsed 24 in all but one of those contests for a robust average of 27.0 per game.

The Islanders will need to be at their best offensively if they hope to keep pace with their hosts on Saturday night. Thankfully, that’s been the case recently. The Isles have totaled 30 high-danger and 54 scoring opportunities over their previous couple of games but have just three goals to show for their efforts. Expect a sharp increase in scoring as output balances with production.

While Toronto handled their goaltending situation effectively, we’re still forecasting a high-scoring affair in the Six. The Leafs and Islanders have ample production metrics, which should translate into an over on Saturday night.

Buffalo Sabres vs. Boston Bruins

Sabres Moneyline (+150)

Tonight’s Atlantic Division tilt between the Buffalo Sabres and Boston Bruins is shaping up as a classic flat spot for the hosts. The Bruins return home after a five-game road trip in which they went 2-2-1. Granted, the Sabres are playing on consecutive nights. Still, we’re betting that tonight is the night their infamous losing streak comes to an end.

Buffalo has lost 12 straight. A closed-door meeting earlier in the week failed to spark the team into action. Nevertheless, there are some promising metrics in their analytics profile. First, the Sabres have been one of the best production teams over the past few weeks. They have averaged 10.4 high-danger chances per game over the past nine, eclipsing double-digits in six of those contests.

Second, there’s a substantive rift forming between expected and actual outcomes. While their 48.2% expected goals-for rating remains slightly underwhelming, the Sabres are operating nearly eight points below that. Their actual goals-for rating of 40.8% and PDO of 0.974 imply that the Sabres are due for a reversal of fortune, a progression we are anticipating against the Bruins.

Scheduling-wise, this looks like a troublesome spot for the B’s as they settle back into the comforts of home after an extended road trip. As such, there’s an edge in backing the Sabres to pull off the massive upset and end their 12-game skid.

Ottawa Senators vs. Vancouver Canucks

Canucks Moneyline (-130)

It may be separated by the holiday freeze, but the Ottawa Senators are in the midst of playing nine straight games away from home. Their next stop takes them to the lower mainland, where the Vancouver Canucks await them. The Sens have enjoyed some success early in their road trip, but their metrics are eroding, putting them at a disadvantage in this one.

Ottawa has struggled to compete on both ends of the ice lately. They’ve given up at least 10 high-danger chances in three of four while out-chancing their opponents just once over that stretch. Predictably, that correlates with an ineffective expected goals-for rating. The Senators have been outplayed in all but one of those contests while producing a lackluster 44.8% eGF.

Conversely, the 'Nucks are just starting to get their metrics in order. Vancouver has outplayed its opponents in two of three, a stretch that includes only one win. After two heartbreaking losses, the Canucks are poised for a bounce-back effort against an analytically inferior Sens squad.

The Canucks’ chances of claiming victory against the Sens are greater than the betting line implies. On that basis, our most pronounced edge comes in backing the hosts as short home favorites.

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