Home Run Picks Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Props for Friday, August 7, 2026

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Ceddanne Rafaela +600
• Seiya Suzuki +420
• Kyle Tucker +560

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Predictions Today: MLB Home Run Props, Picks

Ceddanne Rafaela to Hit a Home Run (+600)

A’s at Red Sox, 7:11 p.m. ET

Listed at long odds, Ceddanne Rafaela catches my eye today.

He’s taking on A’s right-hander Jack Perkins, a rookie who is showing some reverse splits. Against righty bats this season, Perkins has allowed a .350 wOBA and 49.5% fly-ball rate.

Rafaela owns a .347 wOBA for the year and has been on fire of late, posting a .490 wOBA with five long-balls over his previous 46 plate appearances.

On top of that, the Athletics’ bullpen has let up the second-most bombs per nine this year.

In a nice matchup on a night when the wind is blowing out at Fenway, Rafaela is an appealing HR bet at these odds.

Seiya Suzuki to Hit a Home Run (+420)

Cubs at Royals, 8:11 p.m. ET

Seiya Suzuki mauls lefties, and that puts him in a superb spot against Daniel Lynch.

For the campaign, Suzuki has mashed his way to a .418 wOBA and 44.2% fly-ball rate with the platoon advantage. He’s got seven jacks in only 98 plate appearances in the split.

Lynch has worked exclusively out of the bullpen this year and has some quality numbers. But his career history is much less impressive as he’s pitched to a 4.55 SIERA and 18.5% K rate across 409 career frames.

Once Lynch departs, the Chicago Cubs will see a Kansas City Royals bullpen that ranks third-worst in xFIP in 2026 while allowing the most dingers per nine.

Plus, the wind is blowing out to left today in KC.

Kyle Tucker to Hit a Home Run (+560)

Dodgers at Diamondbacks, 9:41 p.m. ET

It’s been a trying season for Kyle Tucker. However, he might be turning a corner, and he’s my favorite homer pick today.

Tucker has produced a .429 wOBA with three tanks over his past 44 plate appearances. He’s got a juicy 54.8% fly-ball rate in that time. He’s on the road today versus Merrill Kelly, and Tucker has been significantly better on the road (.362 wOBA) than at home (.276).

Kelly has struggled with left-handed hitters in 2026, permitting a .379 wOBA, 41.1% hard-hit rate and 2.03 homers per nine in the split. He’s in a bad funk right now, too, pitching to a 6.97 expected ERA over his last nine starts.

With Tucker in a friendly matchup and starting to get hot, I’m backing him at these lengthy odds.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.