5 Best NBA Bets and Player Props for Saturday 12/21/24

The 82-game NBA regular season offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals. The Association features 1,230 regular season games, which can make sifting through the odds an overwhelming task.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. numberFire's NBA power rankings and daily NBA projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All injury news comes from the NBA's official injury report.

Today's Best NBA Bets and Player Props

Memphis Grizzlies at Atlanta Hawks

Grizzlies Moneyline (-126)

If this is a trap, I'll happily walk into it.

At first, it seems like one, but I actually think the public might be driving such a short line for the Atlanta Hawks. At home, they're a fun, high-scoring team, but their -2.7 net rating (NRTG) isn't on the same level as the Memphis Grizzlies -- even if it's improved to +2.5 in just the last 10 games.

Memphis has a +10.9 NRTG overall, increasing to +13.0 in just the previous 10 contests. Some might point to Ja Morant's doubtful listing and worry, but the Grizz have an even better +14.4 NRTG in six games where Morant and Marcus Smart (ankle) both did not play.

They're 5-1 straight up in those contests, and there's no rest advantage for either side. Memphis is simply a lot better, and this seems like too short of a number to take the home side.

Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls

Celtics -7.5 in First Half (-110)
Derrick White Over 3.5 Threes Made (+135)

Though the Chicago Bulls are more aptly named for this metaphor, it's probably the Boston Celtics seeing red after Thursday's contest.

Chicago became just the third team in the last 15 games to beat Boston, but you could argue the C's beat themselves. 25.0% shooting from deep is going to be tough for the Celtics' three-point barrage to overcome and win. It was a fluke, off night when the Bulls are not a good three-point defense, allowing the sixth-most attempts per game (39.0).

Therefore, I'm expecting an onslaught from a motivated Celtics team on the road. Boston's +9.5 NRTG has come through everyone's best punch, and the Bulls (-2.7 NRTG) just haven't been consistent on the defensive end.

A full-game, 12.0-point spread is so large that it could flip after the starters depart, but I'll take the C's to get back on track and be up by double digits at half.

There's perhaps no player more indicative of whether that'll happen or not than guard Derrick White.

White went 3-for-12 (25.0%) from deep in Thursday's stinker against the Bulls, and he's underperformed in general during the month of December. His three-point rate (33.0%) is vastly worse than his season-long rate (39.4%) as one of the best shooters in the league.

Luckily for him, there's a reason he got up 12 shots in the first matchup. Chicago allows the very most made threes per game to opposing shooting guards (4.1) across the NBA.

FanDuel Research's daily NBA projections forecast 3.4 makes for White at a median on Saturday, which is why this betting number is so key. It implies just a 42.6% chance, but White has done this in 13 of 28 games this season (48.1%) entering a sublime matchup.

Portland Trail Blazers at San Antonio Spurs

Over 226.5 Points (-110)
Chris Paul Over 8.5 Points (-106)

I'll just keep betting San Antonio Spurs overs until the market adjusts.

San Antonio is 7-3 to the over in their last 10 games, which is directly related to a drop in defensive efficiency. The Spurs' 118.7 defensive rating (DRTG) in this stretch is the third-worst in the Association. Tonight, they'll square off with one of two teams behind them in that category: the Portland Trail Blazers (123.9).

It's not like the tempo for an over is bad here, either. These are two top-14 squads in terms of pace.

I don't think it's any coincidence that the Spurs' DRTG has plummeted with Devin Vassell (121.1 DRTG; worst on the team) back in the lineup, and Vassell provides a scoring punch, too. This might be their new normal, and the Blazers' leaky D is happily an accomplice for an over.

It might come from an unlikely place, though.

This number seems a bit disrespectful for offensive maestro Chris Paul in this matchup. Is Paul a pass-first option with a low usage rate (15.6%)? Sure, but he's still posted double-digit points in 16 of 27 games this season (53.0%).

Paul's line might be suppressed by two recent clunkers with obvious reasons to why they happened. An 11-minute ejection on December 13th came first, and then, he was held scoreless in 30 minutes by the elite Minnesota Timberwolves defense.

Portland is far from elite, and they allow the fifth-most points per game to opposing point guards (25.9).

We've got Paul projected for 10.3 points tonight. I'm not disrespecting the Hall of Famer with an under at 8.5.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.