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3 Best Bets for Monday Night Football: Bills at Jets

Austin Swaim
Austin SwaimASwaim3

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3 Best Bets for Monday Night Football: Bills at Jets

Will the dead cat bounce? The New York Jets are hoping so.

New York fired head coach Robert Saleh on Monday, tabbing Jeff Ulbrich to serve as the interim coach and attempt to resurrect a 2-3 team that had playoff hopes before the season. They also shifted Todd Downing to play-calling duties over offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett.

Coaching is definitely a sensitive subject in this matchup with the Buffalo Bills on the other side. Buffalo shot themselves in the foot with clock management to fall to 3-2 themselves last week in H-Town.

Which one of these teams will get pointed in the direction they hoped? We'll find out.

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for this week's edition of Monday Night Football.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Monday Night Football Betting Picks: Bills at Jets

Jets Moneyline (-102)

Moneyline

New York Jets
Oct 15 12:15am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

As odd as it is to say, at least the Jets created a bit of momentum doing something about their coaching situation.

New York's defense actually did a nice job in London, holding the Minnesota Vikings to their lowest Offensive Net Expected Points (NEP) per play of the season (-0.15) in Week 5. That wasn't enough to save the defensive-minded Saleh as Aaron Rodgers threw three interceptions. They still have an obvious path to success under Ulbrich just by way of health and numberFire's fifth-best schedule-adjusted defense.

The Bills' injury report is lengthy; they're likely down several key defensive starters with James Cook (toe) and Khalil Shakir (ankle) iffy to play. Buffalo is already numberFire's sixth-worst rush defense when set to face Braelon Allen and Breece Hall, creating a path for a low-scoring, rudimentary gameplan for the new coaching staff.

At home, I'll play the "dead cat bounce" behind the better defense and what should be a decent effort from the Jets' running game.

Under 40.5 Points (-105)
Bills Under 21.5 Points (-106)

Total Match Points

Under
Oct 15 12:15am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Bills Total Points

Under
Oct 15 12:15am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

This game could be ugly aesthetically.

According to our own Brandon Gdula's Week 6 adjusted pace and pass report, there isn't a slower projected average tempo than the Bills and Jets on Monday night (31.1 average seconds per play).

The heavy rush volume in this game won't help matters. Buffalo ranks 15th in rush rate over expectation on their own (3.6%), and New York should see a dramatic shift in this rush-friendly matchup.

Nathaniel Hackett's offense actually had a positive pass rate over expectation (2.6%), which could be one of the reasons for the change at playcaller. It's worth noting that Todd Downing's Tennessee Titans were a top-six team in rush rate in both of his years as offensive coordinator.

Entering this matchup against a solid defense, the Bills have scored just 30 total points in the past two weeks. New York is averaging just 18.6 points per game. These two don't profile for a high-scoring matchup, and Buffalo, in particular, figures to struggle against a relatively healthy Jets defense.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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