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🏟️ TONIGHT 10:00 PM ET · SOFI STADIUM · INGLEWOOD CA · FOX / TELEMUNDO · GROUP D MD3 · UPDATED
FIFA World Cup 2026 · Group D · Matchday 3 · Prediction, Picks, Lineups & Best Bets · All Odds FanDuel
USA vs Turkey: Prediction, Picks & Best Bets
USA -110 · Draw +310 · Turkey +260 · ❌ Balogun/Adams/Robinson/Richards ALL RESTED (YC) · Pepi starts ST · Pulisic TBD bench · Turkey 0 goals 62 shots ELIMINATED · SoFi home crowd
Thursday June 25, 2026 · All odds FanDuel Sportsbook · Must be 21+
🚨 CONFIRMED ROTATION — FOX: BALOGUN WILL NOT START · ADAMS/ROBINSON/RICHARDS RESTED · PEPI STARTS ST · PULISIC TBD (likely bench)
FOX Sports (updated 7:16 PM ET): "The U.S. men's national team will sit out four regular starters — Tyler Adams, Folarin Balogun, Chris Richards, and Antonee Robinson." All four carry yellow cards. Ricardo Pepi starts as ST. Pulisic: "I'm feeling good, hopefully I'll be able to play a part tomorrow." — likely bench.
Group D Standings · MD3 · Tonight 10PM ET · SoFi Stadium · Simultaneous: Paraguay vs Australia Santa Clara
🇺🇸 USA · 6pts · +5 GD · GROUP WINNERS ✅ · 6 goals · 1 conceded · First WC back-to-back wins since 1930
🇦🇺 Australia · 3pts · 0 GD · R16 with win or draw (vs Paraguay simultaneously)
🇵🇾 Paraguay · 3pts · -2 GD · MUST WIN vs Australia for certain R16
🇹🇷 Turkey · 0pts · ELIMINATED ❌ · 0 goals 62 shots · 13 on target · playing for pride only
🎯 Prediction
USA 2-1 Turkey · Rotated USA wins · Turkey finally score · Pepi first WC goal
🇺🇸 2–1 🇹🇷
Even with wholesale rotation, the USA's depth is enormous. Pepi has scored 27 PSV goals in two seasons and impressed against Australia. Reyna is arguably better than Balogun on his day. Aaronson hasn't played a minute yet and will be hungry. The rotated XI is still good enough to beat a Turkey side with zero tournament goals.
Turkey may finally break their scoring duck against a rotated USA. FD Research primary: USA -110. Prediction: USA 2-1 Turkey. Pochettino wants three wins from three going into the knockouts.
📋 Predicted Lineups
USA 3-4-3
Mauricio Pochettino · confirmed rotation
❌ Balogun · Adams · Robinson · Richards ALL RESTED
⚠️ Pulisic TBD bench
🔴 HEAVY ROTATION
PEPI ⭐
ST · PSV · 19G
+180 FD anytime
REYNA ⭐
RW · scored vs PAR
+245 FD anytime
❌ Balogun/Adams/Robinson/Richards RESTED · Pulisic bench · Pepi 2nd WC start · Reyna scored vs Paraguay · Aaronson 0 WC mins
🇺🇸 USA Bench · Pulisic ⚠️ TBD +190 · Balogun rested · Dest · Tillman · Zendejas · Wright +180
Pulisic ⚠️ TBD · +190 FDBalogun (rested)Wright FW · +180 FDTillman MFZendejas FWDest RB
Turkey 4-2-3-1 · Vincenzo Montella · ELIMINATED · 0 goals 62 shots · ⚠️ Güler fitness · ⚠️ Çalhanoğlu soleus
GK: Çakır · DEF: Müldür, Bardakcı, Ayhan, Kadıoğlu · DM: Çalhanoğlu⚠️, Yüksek · AM: Güler⚠️, Özcan, Yıldız · ST: Aktürkoğlu (~+275 FD anytime) — 0 goals 62 shots in this tournament. Won 2-1 vs USA in June 2025 friendly. Playing for national pride only.
💰 Best Bets — FanDuel Sportsbook
⭐ FD RESEARCH PRIMARY · -110 · HOME CROWD · GROUP WINNERS · TURKEY 0 GOALS · DEPTH ENORMOUS · $10→$19.09
USA Moneyline
FD Research primary. Home crowd at SoFi. Even the rotated XI has enormous quality — Pepi 27 PSV goals, Reyna scored vs Paraguay, Aaronson hungry for minutes. Turkey has zero goals. $10→$19.09.
USA -110 — FD Research primary. Depth is real. Turkey can't score. $10→$19.09.
💎 ESPN FD +180 · PEPI · PSV · 19G · CONFIRMED ST · FOX/CBS EXPLICIT · $10→$28
Ricardo Pepi Anytime Scorer
FOX (Laken Litman): "This week he could be the primary target up top and maybe score his first World Cup goal." CBS: "Pepi has scored 27 league goals for PSV Eindhoven over the last two seasons." Confirmed ST start. Turkey's defence has been structurally sound but incapable of keeping a clean sheet against a quality attack. $10→$28.
Pepi +180 — confirmed ST. FOX/CBS explicit. PSV 27G in 2 seasons. $10→$28.
💎 ESPN FD +245 · GIO REYNA · BVB · SCORED vs PAR · CREATIVE LICENSE WITH STARTERS RESTED · $10→$34.50
Giovanni Reyna Anytime Scorer
Scored vs Paraguay, 0.88 xG per FD Research. With regular starters rested, Reyna gets more creative license in Pochettino's 3-4-3. +245 against an eliminated Turkey. $10→$34.50.
⚖️ FD RESEARCH/CBS CONTRARIAN · DRAW +310 · HEAVY ROTATION USA · TURKEY PRIDE GAME · $5 STAKE ONLY · $5→$20.50
Draw +310 — Contrarian Value
FD Research backs the draw value. CBS: "Turkey doesn't have much left to play for, but it still has enough talent to make the game difficult if the U.S. rotates heavily." With 4 key starters out and Pulisic likely bench, 1-1 is a credible scenario. $5→$20.50.
📋 Best Bets Ranked · USA vs Turkey · All FanDuel
⭐ #1 — USA -110 (FD Research primary · home crowd · Turkey 0 goals · depth · $10→$19.09)
💎 #2 — Pepi +180 (confirmed ST · PSV 19G · FOX/CBS · $10→$28)
💎 #3 — Reyna +245 (scored vs PAR · creative license · $10→$34.50)
⚖️ Draw +310 (contrarian · FD Research/CBS · $5 stake · heavy rotation USA)
FanDuel Sportsbook · Group D · USA vs Turkey · 10PM ET TONIGHT · SoFi Stadium Inglewood CA
Bet USA vs Turkey Now
USA -110 · Pepi +180 · Reyna +245 · Draw +310 value
All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook · USA -110 / Draw +310 / Turkey +260 confirmed CBS SportsLine · Scorer board (Pepi +180, Wright +180, Pulisic +190, Reyna +245) ESPN FD confirmed · ❌ Balogun/Adams/Robinson/Richards RESTED confirmed FOX Sports 7:16 PM ET · ⚠️ Pulisic TBD bench · ⚠️ Güler fitness · Prediction: USA 2-1 Turkey · Must be 21+
Projections
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