Both Group D matches kick off simultaneously at 10 PM ET. USA vs Turkey at SoFi Stadium in LA (FOX) pits a heavily rotated USMNT against an eliminated Turkey playing for pride. Paraguay vs Australia at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara (FS1) is the group's second-place decider — with Almiron suspended and Leckie out, FOX already called it "90 minutes of kickball written all over it." Five picks across both matches, two of them USA props, three from the Paraguay-Australia cagey decider.

FOX confirmed at 7:16 PM: Balogun is sitting due to yellow card risk. Pepi is the lone striker for USA from minute one. CBS Sports dedicated an entire article to him as their primary pick: "He turned 16 starts into 16 goals at PSV — he simply knows how to finish when opportunities arise." FOX: "This week he could be the primary target up top and maybe score his first World Cup goal." Turkey are eliminated with 0 goals in 62 shots. USA scored goals in the 12th and 5th minutes of their two WC games under Pochettino's high-press system. Pepi is the finisher in that system tonight. $10→$26.50.

WHY BET IT: CBS primary. FOX confirmed lone starter. 16 PSV starts = 16 goals. Balogun rested. Turkey 0 tournament goals. USA attack early and clinically. $10→$26.50.

CBS Sports confirmed this FanDuel price in their dedicated Pepi article: "Pepi is priced at +100 to record a goal or assist." That is even money for the confirmed starting striker to be directly involved in a goal in any capacity. A goal wins it. A Pepi assist on a Reyna or Aaronson goal wins it too. CBS: "He had two assists in an international friendly with Team USA in 2026 and multiple assists in two of his three PSV seasons. It's nice to have the safety net of an assist cashing." Best risk-adjusted prop on the board tonight. Back before the 9:15 PM lineup drop. $10→$20.

WHY BET IT: Even money. CBS confirmed FD price. Covers both Pepi outputs. Best risk-adjusted prop on the board tonight. $10→$20 — back before 9:15PM.

Covers/Yahoo: "Turkey has struggled to contain wide players — particularly those attacking Turkey's right side. I'm expecting Gio Reyna to get the start on that side, which makes him an attractive value play. He showed during the 4-1 win over Paraguay that he's a threat to score." Reyna has 10 goals in 40 USMNT caps despite rarely being a regular starter. Tonight he IS the regular — with Balogun, Adams and Pulisic all absent, Reyna gets the creative freedom that his best performances run on. He scored a stunning outside-of-the-foot curler against Paraguay from this exact right-side AM role. $10→$32.50.

WHY BET IT: Confirmed starter. Scored vs Paraguay from this exact position. Turkey's right side repeatedly exposed. Dimers' #1 model pick (1+ shots on target). Creative freedom with regulars rested. $10→$32.50.

FOX Sports, bluntly: "This could have 90 minutes of kickball written all over it. Australia is definitely through with a draw, and Paraguay is very likely through as one of the best third-place teams with a draw as well. Take a draw here (+125)." Australia need only a draw for second place. Paraguay likely advances as a best third-place team on a draw. Neither side has incentive to press and risk conceding. Almiron is suspended. Leckie is out (hamstring). O/U is set at just 1.5. Squawka's Kalshi prediction market has the draw at 43% consensus. At +125, you earn $12.50 profit on every $10. $10→$22.50.

WHY BET IT: FOX Sports explicit primary pick. O/U only 1.5. Both teams likely through on a draw. Almiron suspended, Leckie out. 43% Kalshi consensus. Plus money. $10→$22.50.

CBS/SportsLine back the Under as their primary goals market pick. The O/U being set at just 1.5 — not the standard 2.5 — is the market's verdict. Paraguay scored one goal in four of their last five matches. Australia scored once in their win over Turkey. Squawka explicitly anchors on Under 2.5 with BTTS No as their bet-builder thesis. Neither team is prolific. Almiron is suspended. Leckie is out. The Draw (Bet 4) and Under 1.5 are naturally correlated — a 0-0 or 1-0 wins both. Check FD for the live Under 1.5 price.

WHY BET IT: CBS/SportsLine explicit. O/U set at 1.5. Paraguay 1G in 4/5 recent. Almiron + Leckie absent. Naturally correlated with Bet 4. Check FD for live price.

Bets 1 + 2 (Pepi anytime + score/assist): Stack both. If Pepi scores, Bet 1 wins. If Pepi assists, Bet 2 wins. Together they cover almost every positive Pepi outcome tonight. Back Bet 2 first — it may tighten at lineups.

Bets 4 + 5 (Draw + Under 1.5): Naturally correlated. A 0-0 wins both. A 1-0 wins Bet 4 and Bet 5. A single-goal tight game is the most expected outcome for this match — these two cover that scenario from both angles.