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Today's Best Bets for NFL Week 15

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Today's Best Bets for NFL Week 15

Bye weeks are over, and the playoff push in the NFL has just begun.

We've got some insane action on deck today. In the early window, the Miami Dolphins and Houston Texans will jockey for playoff positioning as the most notable of seven games. Then, a mega-sized five-game late window includes some bangers, including the Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles in a battle of first-place squads.

Before we begin, don't forget to check out FanDuel Research's NFL projections to see what numberFire's model expects from each player across key statistical categories.

Which value remains on the board in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds? Let's check it out.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Today's Best NFL Betting Picks

Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns

Browns +4.5 (-115)

Spread

Cleveland Browns
Dec 15 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

The Kansas City Chiefs are putting together a betting season for the ages.

K.C. is 12-1 straight up (SU) but somehow, simultaneously, the eighth-worst team against the spread (ATS) with a 5-8 record. The Chiefs have failed to cover seven straight, so are the 3-10 Cleveland Browns the stopping point? I don't think so.

Cleveland's newfound identity blends perfectly with K.C.'s defensive weakness. The Chiefs are numberFire's 4th-ranked schedule-adjusted defense against the rush, but they're 24th against the pass. Winston (7.2 yards per attempt) has shown to be productive through the air even if key mistakes have cost the Browns recent games -- and covers.

Kansas City's pass protection (% pressure rate allowed) could always be a huge issue opposite Cleveland, whose underperforming defense is still getting a 31% pressure rate. Pro Football Focus expects the Chiefs' tackles to be an issue in this one.

The Brownies are 2-1 ATS at home with Winston under center -- and one start came in a blizzard. Today's windy forecast doesn't scare me off their pass-heavy attack.

Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers

Over 42.5 Points (-120)
Rico Dowdle Anytime Touchdown (-120)

Total Match Points

Dec 15 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Carolina Panthers fans already got what they wanted for Christmas. It was an offense that didn't lead them to depression.

Head coach Dave Canales' turnaround of Bryce Young is one for the ages. Young is averaging a modest 0.01 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db) since being reinstated as the team's starter, and Carolina is averaging 20.5 points per game in this stretch.

The Dallas Cowboys also have improved with additional footing since Dak Prescott's season was announced over; Monday marked the fourth straight game over 20 offensive points.

With both offenses beginning to churn, we can look toward this over in a game enviornment built for one. This game has a top-five blended adjusted pace and pass rate over expectation, per Brandon Gdula's Week 15 report. These two run-first squads also have to be licking their chops in a matchup of nF's worst two rush defenses in the NFL.

Quietly, these two teams are also possess an over rate of at least 61.5% this season. This looks like another spot to target offense after stud Dallas linebacker DeMarvion Overshown was lost for the season on Monday.

Any Time Touchdown Scorer
Rico Dowdle

However, I'm looking to the Cowboys' offense for a prop in this one.

The league's newest featured running back is Rico Dowdle, who arguably should have been for Dallas since the first day of training camp. Dowdle has separated from his dusty backfield mates to post a 62.1% snap rate and earn 19.4 opportunities per game in the last five contests.

Dowdle's rushing yards over expectation per carry (0.92 RYOE/c) in this stretch also show efficiency that we really haven't seen from him before at the right time. Though Dallas has the league's worst run D, Carolina's 31st-ranked unit -- one state over from his alma mater -- is the best possible matchup for him.

Regression works in Rico's favor, too. He'll do better than a single touchdown in 97 touches if he keeps producing like this on a per-touch basis.

Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions

Bills Moneyline (+122)

Moneyline

Dec 15 9:25pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

I handicap UFC most notably, and sometimes, you've just got to bet a well-rounded, skilled guy to get their hand raised at a certain number. Somehow, the Buffalo Bills should get their hand raised on Sunday.

Buffalo played one of the zaniest games of the season to lose 44-42 in L.A. last week, but they nearly emerged after spotting the Los Angeles Rams a 21-point cushion. Defense wasn't exactly the theme of their day.

Overall, the Bills are still numberFire's 10th-ranked schedule-adjusted defense. Even though the Detroit Lions are showing fourth in that category, significant injuries to that side of the ball present an opportunity for Josh Allen, who has scorched the league for 0.22 EPA/db (second in the NFL) this season.

Buffalo is also getting back a couple of key offensive weapons and linebacker Matt Milano for this one -- the latter of which being huge against the Lions' elite run game.

The Lions are 6-1 in one-score games this season. They're 9-4 ATS as one of the league's most public teams. Buffalo's defense just got embarrassed. Yet, this spread is only 2.5 points? This is an old-school handicapping pivot onto the prohibitive NFL MVP odds-on favorite.


New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $150 in Bonus Bets if your first bet of $5+ wins! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which bets stand out to you for today's action? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NFL betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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