NBC executives couldn't be more thrilled to have gotten this game that means this when they booked the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field after Thanksgiving.

Stunningly, the 9-4 Packers are third place in their own division but seem well-positioned for a playoff spot as they battle the Washington Commanders for seeding. Seattle has much more to lose after Thursday's upset by the Los Angeles Rams, needing a win here if they want to stay ahead of the healthy and surging former Super Bowl Champions.

A tight spread (2.5) and average total (46.5 points) should produce a betting angle or two. Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for this week's Sunday night game.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Packers at Seahawks Betting Picks

Seahawks Moneyline (+122)
Packers Under 23.5 Points (+102)

I find it incredibly difficult to bet against the Seahawks at present.

In an era of football where pass defense is a suggestion, secondary play is extremely conducive to winning games. Don't believe me? 8 of numberFire's top-10 schedule-adjusted pass defenses have a winning record. Offensive injuries have smashed the San Francisco 49ers and New Orleans Saints' chances of bumping the rate to 100%.

Since a Week 10 bye, Seattle leads the NFL in Net Expected Points (NEP; nF's EPA metric) per drop back allowed (-0.12). The best pass defense in the NFL meets Jordan Love, who has posted a similarly spicy 0.45 NEP per drop back himself. However, it's easy to amount that success to just 88 drop backs in this stretch where Josh Jacobs has been a beast on the ground.

The problem? The Seahawks are also tied for 13th in NEP per carry allowed on the ground (-0.01) in this period. If they bottle Jacobs, will Love's early-season issues resume?

Green Bay's defense is ninth overall in nF's rankings themselves, so I'm leaning toward a lower-scoring, ugly contest on a chilly night with potential rain in the forecast.

Even if you're rightfully concerned of Geno Smith (12 interceptions) in a close game, my best bet in this contest is the under on the Packers' team total. They've scored 30-plus points in three straight games, but the hottest defense in the NFL awaits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.