3 NHL Best Bets and Predictions for Sunday 12/15/24
Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.
For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.
Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.
NHL Betting Picks Today
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Buffalo Sabres vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
Sabres Moneyline (+148)
Moneyline
The Toronto Maple Leafs did themselves no favors ahead of Sunday’s tilt versust the Buffalo Sabres. Toronto deployed Joseph Woll on Saturday night, reserving third-string netminder Dennis Hildeby for the second night of the back-to-back as Anthony Stolarz remains unavailable. Combined with their poor analytics, the Leafs could be outmatched by the Sabres at Scotiabank Arena.
Toronto has been stuck in a rut recently. They’ve been outplayed in six of their past nine games, a stretch that surprisingly includes five wins. Consistently overachieving relative to their underlying metrics has inflated the Leafs’ PDO beyond sustainable levels. They’re skating around with an inflated 1.020 PDO on the season, with an actual goals-for rating over six points higher than expected. Consequently, more losses lie on the Maple Leafs’ horizon.
Those issues are compounded by a mismanaged goaltending situation. Hildeby has been ineffective this season, posting a 4.03 goals against average and 86.9% save percentage. The Sabres have gone north of 11 high-danger chances in six straight, and they won’t be taking their foot off the pedal against Toronto’s third-string goalie. Particularly as the Leafs skate on consecutive nights.
The Leafs deteriorating metrics put them at a disadvantage that isn’t reflected in the betting price. As a result, we see an edge in backing the Sabres as substantive underdogs in this Atlantic Division battle.
Vegas Golden Knights vs. Minnesota Wild
Wild Moneyline (-130)
Moneyline
The NHL schedule-makers did the Minnesota Wild a big favor in tonight’s matchup. The Wild host the Vegas Golden Knights on the second night of a back-to-back. Like the Maple Leafs, Vegas mishandled their goaltending usage, creating a more substantive edge in backing Minnesota at home.
The Wild have been on an upward trajectory with their recent efforts. They’ve outplayed their opponents in all but one of their last eight outings, relying on their typically stout defensive play to outshine their opponents. Minnesota has allowed more than eight high-danger chances just twice across the eight-game sample, limiting opponents to an average of 6.9 opportunities.
While Vegas’ skilled players have offset their ineffective metrics, the Golden Knights don’t possess the offensive systems to break through the Wild’s defensive structure. The Pacific Division leaders have fallen below nine high-danger chances in three of five. Worse, they have negative relative metrics in scoring and high-danger opportunities this season, with an unflattering 48.0% Corsi rating.
Ilya Samsonov is the projected netminder for the Knights, which could be their undoing against the Wild. Analytically, Minnesota is the superior team, but their advantage is more pronounced than the betting line implies.
New York Rangers vs. St. Louis Blues
Blues Moneyline (+118)
Moneyline
The honeymoon phase is over and the St. Louis Blues have had more than enough time to adapt to Jim Montgomery’s systems. Now, it’s time for the Blues to start translating their improved on-ice play to more wins. They’ll get that opportunity on Sunday night, as they welcome the New York Rangers to the Enterprise Center.
Both teams enter the inter-conference tilt on the second night of a back-to-back. Moreover, the Blues and Rangers both elected to start their primary goalies on Saturday night. That leaves backups Jonathan Quick and Joel Hofer to battle it out in what should be a wildly entertaining affair.
The Blues have settled into Montgomery’s systems and it’s starting to pay off. They’ve outplayed their opponents in two of three and are getting more robust offensive production out of their forwards corps. Over the last seven games, St. Louis has exceeded 10 high-danger chances on four occasions while getting out-chanced only twice over that stretch.
Sadly, the Rangers are trending in the opposite direction. The Broadway Blueshirts have been outplayed in two of three, dropping their season-long expected goals-for rating to 48.9%. Further, they have only three wins over their past 10 outings.
Don’t let the betting price fool you, St. Louis has an advantage in this one. We anticipate a strong showing from the Blues on home-ice, vastly outperforming the implied probability of their current betting price.
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