Paraguay lost their most important player — Miguel Almiron received a red card vs Turkey. Without his creativity and progressive carrying, their attack is significantly diminished, falling on Enciso and Pitta. Australia are the more complete team on paper (ranked 14 spots higher in FIFA rankings) but a draw suits both sides.

FOX Sports: "This could have 90 minutes of kickball written all over it." The O/U being set at 1.5 — not 2.5 — is the market's verdict. Squawka anchors on Under 2.5. CBS/SportsLine backs Under. Both teams have scored just 1 goal in their wins at this tournament. Prediction: Paraguay 1-0 or a 0-0/1-1 draw.

FOX Sports: "This could have 90 minutes of kickball written all over it. Australia is definitely through with a draw, and Paraguay is very likely through as one of the best third-place teams with a draw as well. Take a draw here (+125)." Squawka: draw at 43% Kalshi consensus. $10→$22.50.

Covers: "I'm surprised to see Tony Popovic's men as underdogs against a Paraguay team missing suspended playmaker Miguel Almiron." Australia are ranked 14 FIFA places higher. Never lost to Paraguay. Irankunda returns after Popovic "regretted" dropping him vs USA. $10→$41.

Pitta +320 ($10→$42): SportsGambler primary scorer pick: "Anytime Goalscorer odds really appealing — we'll take a chance on him." Starting ST. FOX also features Sanabria +320 (bench dart). Sanabria +320 ($10→$42): FOX Sports features him: "Antonio Sanabria is +310 to score against Australia." Bench impact striker.

Enciso +370 ($10→$47): Squawka/TotalFootballAnalysis explicit pick. "Paraguay's most dynamic attacking option — at 22 with Strasbourg experience, he carries the technical quality to create or take a chance." Direct running from wide.

Irankunda +370 ($10→$47): "Already netted at this World Cup. At 20, brings pace and directness that can punish a Paraguay defensive line." Racing Post confirms he starts. Australia's most electrifying attacker.