NFL Wild Card Betting Picks: Eagles at Buccaneers

Super Wild Card Weekend ends on Monday with a matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This is a game between two of the last three NFC Champions, but it's looking fairly unlikely that either will get back to the Super Bowl.

This game is interesting considering how these teams finished the regular season. The Eagles lost five of their last six games and are pretty banged up across the board. Right now, Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are all on the injury report as well as key defensive players like Reed Blankenship and Darius Slay.

Tampa won four of their last five games but combined for just 22 points in their last two games. The Bucs finished with a better record this season with Baker Mayfield at quarterback than they did with Tom Brady last season. Both seasons, they won arguably the weakest division in the NFL.

No one seems to feel good about either of these teams' chances to go deep in the playoffs, but one team will have to advance to the next round. Let's break down how this Monday Night Football playoff game might play out -- and what we can bet on in this game.

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Spread, Moneyline, and Total

Spread: Eagles -3.0 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Philadelphia: -158
• Tampa Bay: +134

Total: 43.5

Eagles-Buccaneers Best Bets

Buccaneers +3.0 (-110)

With the way the Eagles finished the season, it's tough to have any confidence in them.

After their disastrous run to close the season, they now rank 17th in numberFire's power rankings. That's the lowest of any team in the playoffs. Tampa is 11th in the power rankings, and it's rare to see the higher ranked team be a home underdog -- especially by as many as three points.

A lot of focus has been on Philly's offense and Jalen Hurts. The real reason they are struggling is because of their defense. They rank 29th on defense, according to numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics. Against the pass, which is where the Bucs can exploit them, they rank 24th.

There are many football fans and observers who are not the biggest fans of Baker Mayfield. It looked like his career as a starter could be over after last season, but this season, his Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back was 0.13 -- better than Hurts, Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow.

His job is made easier by the fact that he has two elite receivers to throw toward, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Mayfield has utilized Godwin a ton over the past five games. Godwin's target share has gone up to 29% in that time after being 21% in Weeks 1 through 14.

The way to exploit the Bucs' defense is also via the pass. They rank 22nd in numberFire's pass-defense metrics but 5th against the run. It will be difficult for a struggling Philly passing offense to get going with the injuries they have to key members of their passing game.

These are very different teams now from when the Eagles beat the Bucs 25-11 in Week 3. Tampa is probably the better team given the recent form, and we're getting three points at home if we bet them. That makes them a very solid play in this game.

The model from numberFire also agrees with this bet, giving a 56.3% chance that Tampa covers the three points in this game.

Under 43.5 (-105)

With the way things have been going for both teams, the under makes sense here.

Both teams finished the season with negative pass rates over expectation. We could see both teams lean into the run even more due to injuries/ Hurts, Smith, and Brown are banged up on the Philly side, and Mayfield is banged up to the point where he was still limited in practice on Friday.

Tampa only managed nine points against the Carolina Panthers in Week 18. That was against the 28th-ranked defense in the league, so it's probably unlikely that they go off -- even against the 29th-ranked D.

The Bucs went run-heavy in that game, passing 32 times and running the ball 29 times. That's a 52.5% pass rate ratio -- lower than their 58.1% rate for the season. That could be because they were facing a weak Carolina run defense, and they will face an Eagles run D that ranks 29th (per numberFire).

Tampa likes to play a slower game. They ranked 25th in plays per game and 19th in adjusted pace. The Eagles rank 3rd in plays per game but just 14th in adjusted pace.

These offenses haven't inspired a ton of confidence lately, and it feels like health will hold them back from getting over the total in this game. I feel better taking the under than expecting points in this spot on Monday.

Interested in more NFL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.