MLB Betting: 3 Best Player Prop Bets for Sunday 8/4/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing MLB projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB player props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

MLB Player Props

Rhys Hoskins to Record 2+ Bases (+115)

The way Rhys Hoskins is ripping the cover off the ball against southpaws, it's a bit of a surprise to see him at plus money for multiple bases today.

Mitchell Parker of the Washington Nationals isn't exactly an impenetrable one. Parker's 4.36 expected ERA (xERA) isn't bad, but his 39.5% flyball and 39.7% hard-hit rates allowed are a cocktail for extra bases. He's also a low-walk pitcher (6.3% BB) to help avoid free passes that spoil this prop.

The Milwaukee Brewers' first baseman hasn't walked much in this split over the past 30 days (8.3% rate), either. In that same time frame, he's absolutely pummeled southpaws for a 1.061 OPS, .455 ISO, and 41.7% hard-hit rate.

It'll also help him that the Nats bullpen has the fourth-highest reliever xFIP (4.51) over the past 30 days, maintaining quality chances later into this contest.

FanDuel Research's daily MLB projections expect 1.92 median total bases from Hoskins in today's game, which would roughly translate to -133 implied odds if correct.

Byron Buxton to Hit a Home Run (+280)

Sometimes, the guy with the shortest odds to hit a home run in a game is that way for good reason.

Byron Buxton has numbers against righties in the past 30 days like he's been playing MLB The Show rather than actual baseball. He's posted a 232 wRC+, 1.220 OPS, and .479 ISO in a modest sample of 54 plate appearances (PAs). His flyball (50.0%) and hard-hit (53.1%) rates in this time might be even better.

Today, Buxton draws one of MLB's most susceptible right-handers to bombs as the Minnesota Twins host the Chicago White Sox. Flexen has permitted 1.44 HR/9 overall, and his flyball (46.8%) and barrel (8.0%) rates allowed don't suggest he's due for huge decline from that number.

Plus, the Pale Hose 'pen is one of three with a higher reliever xFIP (5.21) than Washington in the past month of play.

Our projections have Buxton pegged for 0.31 homers in Sunday's contest, which would translate to roughly +275 odds for one if correct.

Griffin Canning Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-102)

The most stunning revelation in today's prop market was Griffin Canning's strikeout prop sitting here.

Canning will have a brutal assignment Sunday to just not get shelled. The visiting New York Mets have a .779 OPS and .181 ISO against righties over the past month of play, which are both top-10 marks in baseball. This mark is likely 4.5 since the Mets' K rate against righties in July (23.4%) was their highest of any month so far.

I just don't see the Los Angeles Angels' right-hander as any sort of imminent threat to a low-whiff team on the entire season against right-handers (21.5). Canning's whiff (22.7%) and strikeout (16.6%) rates are 35th percentile or worse across MLB -- as if he didn't have enough issues with a 4.86 xERA this season.

We've got Canning projected for just 4.26 Ks in Sunday's game, which would roughly translate to -137 odds for the under if correct.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.