Single-Game NFL DFS Picks: Monday Night (Jets at 49ers)

Week 1 concludes with the New York Jets visiting the San Francisco 49ers a year after Aaron Rodgers suffered a season-ending Achilles injury four plays into the 2023 Monday Night Football opener. San Francisco is a 4.5-point favorite, and the over/under is set at 43.5.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and FanDuel Research has NFL DFS projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

NFL DFS Single-Game Picks

MVP Candidates

In a shock to absolutely no one, Christian McCaffrey ($17,500) sits atop our NFL DFS projections for this contest. Despite being limited in practice all week, CMC expects his usual workload, and his line for player rushing + receiving yards is set at 113.5. Including the playoffs, he averaged just over 23 FanDuel points per game last season.

Jets running back Breece Hall ($15,000) should also be a popular MVP target. In 12 games playing at least half the snaps last year, Hall averaged 15.4 carries and 6.9 targets for 109.6 scrimmage yards per game. Running behind PFF's fifth-ranked offensive line while having a competent QB under center should lead to a massive 2024 campaign.

And speaking of quarterbacks, Brock Purdy ($15,000) and Aaron Rodgers ($14,000) slide in behind the two running backs in our projections. However, they lack rushing upside and will be going against top defenses. PFF ranks both New York and San Francisco as the two best teams at d-line, linebacker, and secondary. Add in what's expected to be a slow-paced matchup, and these two are probably best left as flex plays in most lineups.

Garrett Wilson ($12,500) is an intriguing MVP in lineups where you pass on the RBs in the multiplier slot. Wilson logged a 29.9% target share and 46.1% air yards share in 2023, and a healthy Rodgers should only further enhance his outlook.

Between target competition in a stacked 49ers offense and facing a defense that allowed the fewest FanDuel points to WRs last season, Deebo Samuel ($11,500) and Brandon Aiyuk ($10,000) could have a tougher time posting MVP-level performances, but they can't be ruled out entirely. Aiyuk has the bigger role in the passing attack (24.0% target share and 39.7% air yards share) compared to Samuel (21.6% and 17.9%), but the latter is typically guaranteed a handful of carries to boost his volume.

Flex Targets

George Kittle ($11,000) -- Kittle tends to be all or nothing, so he has some MVP appeal but could also single-handedly sink your lineup with a dud. He posted a solid 20.2% target share in 2023 and cracked 18-plus FanDuel points 4 times in 16 games -- while also finishing with single-digit points on 8 occasions.

Mike Williams ($9,000) -- Williams will be on a snap count to begin the year, so he isn't someone to have a ton of exposure to at this salary.

Jake Moody ($8,500) and Greg Zuerlein ($8,500) -- Given the strong defenses and modest over/under for this matchup, the kickers could be more involved, making them viable value plays.

Tyler Conklin ($8,000) -- Conklin had a respectable 15.5% target share last year and projects to see roughly four targets.

Allen Lazard ($7,000) -- Lazard could be the main beneficiary of Williams being eased into the season. He's coming off a disastrous campaign, but his longtime connection with Rodgers can't be overlooked.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.