Why Jaxson Dart Is Worth the Risk for the New York Giants

In taking Jaxson Dart with the 25th overall pick in Thursday night's NFL Draft, the New York Giants took a risk.

Dart played in a play-action-heavy offense that hasn't produced stud NFL quarterbacks, and they passed on a viable alternative in Shedeur Sanders.

Dart is worth that risk.

Let's dig into Dart's profile, why he was worthy of going in the first round, and what this could mean for the Giants' offense going forward.

Jaxson Dart's College Stats

It's tough for quarterback prospects to check all three boxes of being young, efficient, and experienced. It requires you to be good enough to start early, talented enough to declare for the draft early, and put up good numbers at that young age.

Dart did so, putting him in elite company.

Dart is just the ninth player invited to the combine since 2010 to have at least 30 games with 10-plus pass attempts and a final-year Total QBR of at least 80 while being younger than 22 years old on Day 1 of the draft. The rest of the list is unhinged.

A key consolation for Dart is that the three biggest successes on that list -- Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts -- all went 10th or later. Prospects are less likely to hit the further they fall, but we've seen some massive booms from players in this mold.

When you add this all together, Dart wound up being the seventh-ranked prospect in my model's database, which includes all quarterbacks invited to the combine since 2010. Clearly, the NFL wasn't as high on him as the data, and you can understand why, given the concerns around the offense he comes from. But the league was -- at least to some extent -- skeptical of other players who checked all three boxes, so the league does get some things wrong.

Let's linger for a second on that offense. The key critique of Dart -- a fair one -- is that it's tough to evaluate him because the Ole Miss offense didn't require him to make as many reads as a more pro-level system. They also pushed tons of easy buttons for him via play action and RPOs.

That does not mean he belongs in the same bucket as past Lane Kiffin quarterbacks. In fact, Dart is only the third quarterback invited to the combine since 2010 who played his final year under Kiffin. The other two were far inferior prospects to Dart, at least based on the data.

Matt Barkley was experienced and relatively young but inefficient. Matt Corral was older, not very experienced, and a good bit less efficient than Dart. The criticisms and concerns of Dart are fair; lumping him in with Barkley and Corral is not.

That's why Dart was worth the risk for the Giants. Sure, he could bust, but players like Dart have had upside, and that's all you can ask for at the 25th overall pick.

The Giants' Outlook With Jaxson Dart

The other key to Dart is that the Giants may not necessarily need Dart to play this year.

With both Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston on the roster, they can afford to let him sit for a bit if his transition to the NFL is rough. If he doesn't struggle, they can throw him out there without burning much dead salary at the position.

Dart also has -- at least for this year -- a head coach in Brian Daboll who has shown he can get production out of both a stud quarterback in Josh Allen and a replacement-level player in Daniel Jones. As long as Daboll is around to see this through, it's a decent infrastructure for Dart.

That doesn't mean he'll be a hit. As mentioned, players taken later in the draft are successes less often than those who go early. But Dart's statistical profile shows he's worth that gamble for what the Giants gave up.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.