3 Home Run Prop Best Bets for Monday 9/9/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our home run projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guiding light, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and our MLB projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, weather may be an issue in some locations.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Bobby Witt Jr. to Hit a Home Run (+370)

I'm not an advocate of backing Bobby Witt Jr. on the road, but he does have a plus matchup that could lead to a long ball tonight.

Witt and the Kansas City Royals will take on Carlos Rodon this evening. Rodon has been satisfactory enough this year, pitching to a 4.05 xERA and a pretty great 3.78 SIERA. With that said, the flyball pitcher can, at times, serve as a launching pad for offenses. He lets up a .221 ISO, .449 SLG, 1.67 home runs per nine innings, and a massive 51.9% flyball rate to right-handed batters.

Among all eligible pitchers in MLB, Rodon surrenders the fifth-most home runs per nine frames and the second-highest flyball rate to righties.

Witt, meanwhile, has been producing a stunning 16.9% barrel rate, 41.6% flyball rate, and .327 ISO across the last 30 days of play. While the righty does show some reverse splits, I wouldn't exactly count him out against a lefty. Witt still manages a .333 BA, .550 SLG, and a 42.4% flyball rate versus southpaws.

The road Royals will be ensured some at-bats in the ninth, and Witt typically hits second in the order. He also walks at a low 4.2% rate against lefties, so he could be in for four to five solid home run opportunities tonight.

Anthony Santander to Hit a Home Run (+420)

I'm quite pleased with the odds we are getting on Anthony Santander's home run prop for tonight.

Santander has smashed 39 home runs (third-most in MLB) this season. He's hit at least one long ball in 26.0% of games played this year, yet these +420 odds imply only a 19.2% probability. On top of that, he'll draw an intriguing matchup against Brayan Bello of the Boston Red Sox.

Bello's underlying numbers, which include a 4.04 SIERA and 3.78 xFIP, prove he isn't as bad as his 4.75 ERA may indicate. However, he does struggle against lefties. To this handedness, he cedes a .470 SLG, 1.63 home runs per nine, and a 34.4% flyball rate. The switch-hitting Santander can exploit the platoon advantage.

Santander sports a .273 ISO and a league-high 58.6% flyball rate against right-handed pitchers. This game's 9.5 over/under is tied for the highest on Monday's slate, so I'm good to back Santander at a value when the matchup calls for it.

Ian Happ to Hit a Home Run (+440)

Walker Buehler is perhaps the most vulnerable thrower on Monday's slate. He missed the entire 2023 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery and was activated from the IL this past May, but an array of treacherous outings forced him back to the IL due to a "hip injury." He then spent some time away from the team to rehab in Florida, but the road to recovery has been strange and the results have been nonexistent.

All in all, he has surrendered a .392 wOBA and .546 SLG to lefties and a 2.17 home runs per nine, overall. He's allowed 10 earned runs and 3 home runs through 17 innings since returning in late August, hardly an uptick from what he was doing this past spring.

Enter Ian Happ, a guy who has been raking to the tune of a 12.9% barrel rate, 41.4% flyball rate, .232 ISO, and 163 wRC+ across the last 30 days of play. The switch-hitting Happ has been making hard contact but hasn't hit one out of the park since August 23rd. He could be due in this matchup, one that not only offers him a date with an unconfident Buehler but also a home-run friendly Dodger Stadium.

Happ comes in with a 42.5% flyball rate and .215 ISO versus righties. Our projections give him the third-best shake to go long among all MLB players on Monday.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $200 in Bonus Bets guaranteed after your first bet of $5+ is placed! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Check out all of the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.