Monday Night Football Best Bets: Jets at 49ers

I think even San Francisco 49ers fans are hoping for a full game out of Aaron Rodgers tonight.

For the second consecutive season, Rodgers and the New York Jets open the season on Monday night instead of Sunday. He infamously logged just four snaps a year ago before a season-ending Achilles injury.

Assuming the four-time NFL MVP can stay upright and healthy in this one, we'll see a titanic clash of two of the NFL's best projected defenses with a bit of unknown on both sides' offenses to begin the year.

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for this week's edition of Monday Night Football.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Monday Night Football Betting Picks: Jets at 49ers

Jets +4.5 (-115)

In a game that profiles to be tight and low scoring, a key number of four in regard to NFL scoring outcomes helps the case to back the Jets' side of the spread tonight.

In general, I'm optimistic about a Jets squad that is numberFire's fourth-best projected overall defense and now returns -- at the very least -- competent quarterback play. New York's -0.18 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back last year was second-worst in the NFL. Now, they'll have a two-time MVP since 2020 hop in the saddle? It should be way, way better even an offense that'll still probably run through Breece Hall.

The Niners are the Niners, but including postseason last season, S.F. went 9-11 against the spread (ATS). I'm also a bit worried about this older roster that's played the second-most total games in the league in the last two seasons (40) compared to the much younger Kansas City Chiefs (41) at the top of that statistic. Dre Greenlaw is a huge absence out of the defense compared to last year's entire regular season sample of this squad, too.

Taking one of Pro Football Focus (PFF)'s top-five offensive lines with this many points is extremely attractive when the public is likely supporting last year's NFC Champions in droves.

49ers Under 23.5 Points (-102)

One of the reasons I like the Jets to cover is that it's wholly reasonable to expect far from S.F.'s best offensive effort in tonight's game.

As mentioned, New York has a top-10 projected defense by nF. Brock Purdy played just four total games, including playoffs, against top-10 teams in numberFire's 2023 end-of-season rankings, and in those games, he averaged just 0.06 Passing NEP per drop back. He averaged 0.42 against everyone else. Purdy was incredibly sensitive to matchups a year ago, and this is a brutal one. This mark for points (23.5) hit the under in three of those four games.

Plus, the circumstances around this San Francisco offense are a bit worrisome. Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk will be limited tonight after not being fully involved with team activities because of recently resolved contract disputes. Though set to play despite carrying a "questionable" designation into Week 1, Christian McCaffrey missed the entire preseason with what was eventually dubbed an Achilles issue. If his effectiveness is hampered, it's impossible to say what becomes of this offense when Purdy has made every career start next to a healthy McCaffrey.

Unsure if Rodgers and company have success against new 49ers defensive coordinator Nick Sorenson, I prefer a play on San Francisco's team total in lieu of the game total.

Gear up for NFL season! Customers who bet $5 will get a free trial of NFL Sunday Ticket from YouTube & YouTube TV! This promo expires September 22nd. See here for full terms and conditions.

Looking for the latest NFL odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NFL betting options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.