MLB Best Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Sunday 9/22/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to player props to home runs, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's game predictions and FanDuel Research's daily MLB projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets and Player Props

Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds

Hunter Greene Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+114)

There is some ambiguity about Hunter Greene's workload today -- but not his talent in this matchup.

Greene (elbow) returns from the injured list after tossing 52 pitches in a simulated game on Tuesday, setting the stage for 60 pitches or so in today's game with the Pittsburgh Pirates. As th author of a 28.7% strikeout rate this season, the Cincinnati Reds fireballer doesn't need many to collect five punchouts.

Pittsburgh has struck out at a 22.4% clip against righties in the past 30 days, but their weak wRC+ (86) in this time might be a better show of skill. Greene has averaged 7.0 Ks per game against them this season.

Our daily MLB projections expect 1.25 strikeouts per inning from Greene in this matchup, meaning we'd need four innings to pay off this wager. I'll take those odds.

Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros

Over 8.0 Runs (-112)

The Houston Astros have lambasted Los Angeles Angels pitching all series, and their weakest candidate might be left to toe the slab on Sunday.

That's Griffin Canning, who is the owner of a 4.66 expected ERA (xERA), .259 expected batting average allowed (xBA), and minuscule 17.1% K rate that all ranks 25th percentile or worse across MLB qualifiers. Even when he departs, L.A. has the sixth-highest reliever xFIP over the last month (4.47). The Astros have posted at least five runs in their last five games against the Angels.

Don't discount the Halos chipping in, though. Spencer Arrighetti is prone to mishaps more than his 4.00 xERA might suggest. He's allowed 1.32 HR/9 this season with elevated flyball (42.4%) and hard-hit (39.5%) rates that suggest it's no fluke.

With weaker pitching in a controlled dome not impacted by cooler September weather, I'm not sure why this total is so low. numberFire projects 9.38 median runs in this contest.

Today's Best Home Run Prop Bets

Matt Olson to Hit a Home Run (+300)

It took a vast majority of the season, but Matt Olson has finally caught fire.

In the past 30 days against righties, Olson has posted an 1.131 OPS, .338 ISO, 52.5% flyball rate, and 47.5% hard-hit rate -- leading the Atlanta Braves' qualifiers in those respective categories. You'll want a piece of an Atlanta bat for a home run today.

In a sizable enough sample of 33.0 innings, Darren McCaughan's 6.13 xERA, .288 xBA, and 11.9% strikeout rate are frighteningly ugly, and he's ceded 2.31 HR/9 to this stage.

FanDuel Research's projections expect 0.30 home runs for Olson in today's game, so we'd set his odds closer to +285 for a bomb.

Jazz Chisholm to Hit a Home Run (+450)

Most of the marquee New York Yankees stars went deep yesterday, and Jazz Chisholm should join them soon swinging it like he has against righties.

Over the past month, Jazz has been a bit unlucky to post a mere .108 ISO against them when his flyball (36.0%) and hard-hit (40.0%) rates in the split are quite good. Today's matchup could start to translate those contact numbers into the box score.

The Oakland Athletics will send out Joey Estes, and the right-hander's issues with the long ball in 2024 (1.44 HR/9) now takes a stop through the Bronx Bombers. Estes' 55.2% flyball rate is the highest among MLB qualifiers. Yikes.

We've got Chisholm projected for 0.34 home runs in today's matchup, implying odds closer to +247 for at least one if correct.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.