FanDuel MLB DFS Picks: Sunday 9/22/24

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Let's check out the top options on today's main slate.

Note: All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

MLB DFS Picks

Pitcher Breakdown

This slate is not short on quality pitching, which is aided by the fact all three of the best arms are in suboptimal top-10 hitting environments.

It's "Paul Skenes ($11,000) Day" in DFS circles, yet I'm largely passing on his hefty salary. The Cincinnati Reds have gotten their act together to produce an above-average 106 wRC+ (adjusted for park) and reduced 23.3% strikeout rate against righties in the past 30 days.

Instead, I'm looking at the duo who both come with a $9,800 salary. Pablo Lopez ($9,800) draws a Boston Red Sox lineup at Fenway that's gone into the tank against righties, posting a .604 OPS and 28.1% K rate in the last 30 days. Blake Snell ($9,800) holds a similar matchup for a southpaw, per the Kansas City Royals' .641 OPS and 25.6% K rate in the past month against his split. I'd give the slight edge to "Pache".

I'm also giving consideration to Hunter Greene ($9,300), who has had one too many starts at the Smallpark to make good on a stellar 2.97 expected ERA (xERA) and 28.6% K rate that would normally signify a five-digit salary. The Pittsburgh Pirates' 86 wRC+ against righties in the past month isn't scary when he'll always generate his own whiff upside.

I'll pass on Spencer Arrighetti (4.00 xERA) between this trio in salary that are flatly better pitchers. With Shota Imanaga and Seth Lugo also on the slate in addition to these five, it's a hard day to save at pitcher when most of the bargain bin is in a tough matchup for success or strikeouts.

Stacks to Target

• Houston Astros (5.16 implied team total)
  • The 'Stros have pummeled Los Angeles Angels pitching all series, and Griffin Canning might be the worst candidate so far given his 4.66 xERA, .259 expected batting average allowed (xBA), and minuscule 17.1% K rate. The top six in this order are largely humming in both splits; the paths to failure seem narrow on a slate with poor stacks overall.
• Atlanta Braves (5.11)
  • It doesn't get much uglier than Darren McCaughan's 6.13 xERA, .288 xBA, and 11.9% strikeout rate -- and 33.0 innings is no tiny sample. At home, the Bravos are the other "marquee" stack, but you can easily fit both Houston and Atlanta into a build with a four-digit pitcher.
• Seattle Mariners (4.15)
  • Seattle crushes lefties relative to the league (.729 OPS in the last 30 days), so I wonder if they'll flip the right side of the Andrew Heaney coin. Heaney's 44.7% flyball and 39.1% hard-hit rates allowed cause issues for him at times despite a stable 3.89 ERA overall. I certainly like the M's best of the "others".
• Toronto Blue Jays (3.51)
  • This implied total is bizarrely low, which should lead to non-existent popularity. It's not as if Shane Baz has been untouchable with a 3.87 xERA and giant 43.2% hard-hit rate allowed behind it, and the Tampa Bay Rays have the 10th-worst reliever xFIP over the past 30 days (4.05).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.