How Does Sam Darnold to the Seahawks Impact Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 2025 Fantasy Outlook?

NFL free agency unofficially kicked off on Monday, and it didn't disappoint with a boatload of news. Several free agent quarterbacks were snatched up, including Justin Fields landing with the New York Jets. After trading Geno Smith, the Seattle Seahawks found their next quarterback by signing Sam Darnold.

Adding Darnold could shift some of the Seahawks' 2025 season goals, as our Austin Swaim discussed. This also impacts fantasy value across Seattle's roster. Jaxon Smith-Njigba was one of the most notable fantasy pieces on the Seahawks a season ago. Following his breakout 2024 campaign, what does the move mean for his 2025 fantasy outlook?

Jaxon Smith-Njigba's Breakout Season

As if Seattle's early offseason moves weren't enough indication, it has went all in on Smith-Njigba to be the No. 1 target going forward. D.K. Metcalf was moved to the Pittsburgh Steelers, and Tyler Lockett was also released.

The Seahawks' next leading receiver behind JSN (excluding Metcalf and Lockett) was tight end Noah Fant with 500 yards. Following only 628 receiving yards in his rookie season, Smith-Njigba led Seattle in every major category -- including 100 receptions, 137 targets, 1,130 receiving yards, and six receiving touchdowns. Even the advanced stats checked out as JSN logged a 4.8% catch rate over expectation (CROE) and 5.5 receiving yards over expectation (RecYOE) per game -- per NFL Next Gen Stats.

According to FantasyPros, Smith-Njigba had an average draft position (ADP) of WR42 and 99th overall in half-PPR prior to the 2024 season. JSN smashed expectations by finishing as WR10. For reference, Metcalf had an ADP of WR19 and finished as WR32. The second-year wideout was the clear winner of Seattle's room.

With a change at quarterback, this always causes us to look at the fantasy outlook of the team -- such as Brock Bowers' fantasy outlook with Geno slinging the football. What does Darnold under center mean for Smith-Njigba?

How Sam Darnold Impacts Jaxon Smith-Njigba's Fantasy Outlook

As far as quarterback play, this is like comparing apples to oranges. Geno had his breakout season in 2022, finishing ninth in MVP voting. Darnold had a similar performance in 2024, ranking 10th in MVP voting. He finished with 0.00 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db) compared to Smith's -0.02 from a season ago. Plus, Darnold did this with a offensive line that ranked 18th in Pro Football Focus' rankings while throwing to one of the league's best receiving duos in Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.

Frankly, Darnold's supporting cast will be taking a step back. The Seahawks' O-line was 31st in PFF's rankings, and the receiving corps is extremely thin following the departures of Metcalf and Lockett. Seattle needs to be active in free agency with the fifth-most cap space available. The Seahawks also have the 18th pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, though our Austin Swaim mocked a trade for Seattle as it took an offensive lineman at 32nd overall in FanDuel Research's 2025 NFL Mock Draft.

If this offense fails to make serious additions in the upcoming months, Darnold will likely fail to replicate his success from 2024. That, of course, would probably take away from Smith-Njigba's value. This is more about the Seahawks' offense as a whole -- not just the move for Darnold.

Metcalf and Lockett could also be a double-edged sword. JSN already led the team with a 24.1% target share in 2024. His usage can only increase by so much, and his counterparts will likely draw much less attention going forward. Smith-Njigba will be the clear alpha dog, and he's on an offense that looks to be taking a step back. That means more attention toward JSN along with fewer scoring opportunities.

Another top 10 fantasy finish could be out of reach for Smith-Njigba in 2025. Depending on his ADP and upcoming moves from the Seahawks, Smith-Njigba could become one of the popular fades across fantasy football.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.