How Does Geno Smith Alter Brock Bowers' Fantasy Football Outlook in 2025?

The NFL featured a very busy weekend, including D.K. Metcalf landing with the Pittsburgh Steelers while Davante Adams signed with the Los Angeles Rams. The Las Vegas Raiders finally made a move at quarterback, trading for Geno Smith (link).

Our Austin Swaim discussed the Raiders' ability to contend with Smith in the lineup. While Las Vegas could still look to the 2025 NFL Draft for another quarterback, Smith adds an immediate upgrade to the offense.

With that said, what could that mean for the fantasy value on this offense? Brock Bowers just shattered rookie records while finishing as the top tight end in half-PRP leagues. If Bowers was able to produce at this level with subpar quarterback play, what does the addition of Smith mean for his fantasy value?

Brock Bowers' Historic Rookie Season

Before we dive into Bowers' fantasy outlook for 2025, let's look at his 2024 numbers. The rookie finished with 112 receptions and 1,194 receiving yards, which were both record-setting marks by a rookie tight end. The previous records were 86 receptions by Sam LaPorta in 2023 and 1,076 receiving yards by Mike Ditka in 1961. Not only did Bowers break a 60+ year record, he also surpassed the receptions mark by almost 30.

Additionally, Bowers earned First Team All-Pro honors -- the first rookie tight end to do so since Jeremy Shockey in 2002. He even finished as TE1 with 206.7 half-PPR fantasy points. His 12.2 fantasy points per game was also the second-highest mark among his position.

Not only were Bowers' numbers the best in the NFL, but they were record-breaking. His 1,194 receiving yards, 112 receptions, and 153 targets all led tight ends. Touchdowns (five) was the only area where Bowers lacked, but this is an area that should improve.

Of course, all of this meant monster fantasy numbers. According to FantasyPros, he had an average draft position (ADP) as TE10 and 93rd overall, which provided the steal of the century. His ADP is certain to soar for the 2025 season, especially with an upgrade at quarterback.

How Geno Smith Impacts Brock Bowers' Fantasy Outlook

Bowers putting up these kind of numbers as a record was mind-boggling, especially considering his quarterback play. It was a revolving door between Gardner Minshew (10 games) and Aidan O'Connell (9 games). According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Minshew recorded -0.17 expected points added per drop back (EPA/db) and an average depth of target (aDOT) of 6.0 yards. O'Connell provided better play with 0.00 EPA/db and an aDOT of 7.7 yards, but he was still underwhelming at times.

Las Vegas also logged only 3.6 yards per rushing attempt and 79.8 rushing yards per game (both the fewest), giving this offense virtually no balance. As the 64.3% pass-play rate suggests (third-highest), this offense heavily relied on one factor: Bowers catching the ball. The Raiders certainly weren't relying on good quarterback play as Minshew and O'Connell are decent backups (at best).

Our adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency rankings credited Las Vegas with the fourth-worst schedule-adjusted offense, ninth-worst adjusted pass offense, and worst adjusted rush offense. Pro Football Focus even ranked the Raiders' offensive line as the seventh-worst unit. This offense was simply a mess all around, posting 18.2 points per game (fourth-fewest) and 4.8 yards per play (fifth-fewest).

Yet, Bowers still produced absurd numbers, including 9.6 receiving yards over expectation (RecYOE) per game. Geno Smith isn't one of the league's superstar quarterbacks, but he's still a notable upgrade. Smith finished ninth in 2022 MVP voting earned Pro Bowl bids in both 2022 and 2023. Last season brought a dip in play mainly due to 15 interceptions. His -0.02 EPA/db and aDOT of 7.1 yards was about on the same level of O'Connell.

Frankly, adding Smith is hoping he returns to his 2022 and 2023 numbers. This doesn't take away from Bowers' fantasy value, though. This offense should improve no matter; Las Vegas is armed with the No. 6 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft and currently have the 11th-most cap space available.

With that said, Bowers could only add to his fantasy value with more scoring opportunities. He managed only five touchdowns, and it wasn't from a lack of work with a team-high 25.4% red zone target share. Landing Smith -- along with other upcoming upgrades -- should lead to an improved offense, meaning more touchdowns for Bowers in 2025.

Repeating as football's top fantasy tight end is on the table.

Take your sports betting to the next level with the FanDuel Parlay Hub! Explore a curated selection of popular parlays for trending games on FanDuel Sportsbook. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Think you know who is going first overall in the 2025 NFL Draft? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NFL Draft odds to check every market available on the NFL's marquee offseason event.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.