Can the Raiders Contend for a Playoff Spot With Geno Smith?

On Friday, the Las Vegas Raiders made a totally unexpected splash to answer a two-year saga without a franchise quarterback.

Vegas sent a 2025 third-round pick (92nd overall) to the Seattle Seahawks for quarterback Geno Smith. The Raiders absorbed Smith's final year of his contract at a cap hit of $31 million in full.

Narrowly missing the playoffs in part due to Smith's 15 turnovers, Seattle was disappointed in their season, but trading Smith on the eve of free agency with just the 18th overall pick came as a mammoth surprise.

The 34-year-old is now reunited with new Las Vegas head coach Pete Carroll, who coached Geno between 2020 and 2023 with the Seahawks.

Why did the Raiders decide Smith was the answer? What is their upside in 2025 -- and beyond -- with him under center?

Why the Raiders Traded for Geno Smith

New Raiders general manager John Spytek showed off his skills here.

I'm not sure many quarterback-needy franchises knew Geno Smith was for sale. After all, Smith was Pro Football Focus (PFF)'s eighth-highest-graded quarterback for the 2024 season. He completed a career-high 70.4% of his throws and posted the 12th-most yards per attempt (7.5 YPA) among passers with at least 400 attempts last year.

This was despite one of the worst offensive lines in the league with Seattle. 50 sacks taken is why he'll lag behind many top passers in efficiency metrics, but PFF estimates just 4 of those were on Smith. 44 were pinned on the offensive line.

He's been even more impressive indoors, where he'll now play at least nine times a year:

Why did the Raiders do this? They were increasingly unlikely to find a desired answer at quarterback elsewhere.

Reports indicate this draft's two consensus top quarterbacks are going to be off the board before the fourth pick. They pick sixth. They'd have had to give up extreme draft capital to move to No. 1 -- if the Tennessee Titans don't stay there and draft a quarterback themselves.

Sam Darnold and 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers were linked to the team, but both are wholly uninspiring options after Darnold's disastrous end to the Minnesota Vikings' campaign. Seattle reportedly did this to sign Darnold to a monster deal. Good luck.

Las Vegas gave itself a tremendous amount of relief and flexibility. At worst, Smith is an experienced, league-average quarterback that has experience playing for Carroll. If he's somehow disastrous, the Raiders can start fresh relatively soon with a rookie in 2026.

At best, Smith shows he was held back by his situation and gives the team high-level quarterback play in 2025, earning an extension and positioning the Raiders to finally compete in a loaded AFC West.

Raiders' 2025 Outlook With Geno Smith

Geno's reputation doesn't really match his historical play.

With an immediately improved offensive line from his Seahawks days, Las Vegas will work this summer to have just about every box checked. Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers were productive in 2024 despite awful quarterback play, and they can turn their attention to added weapons in a deep-but-not-star-studded draft for running backs and wide receivers.

They could leave it with two of each, and Vegas might have another decent pick to add a weapon if they deal tight end Michael Mayer as rumors indicate.

Unlike most bottom-feeders, Las Vegas had a good defense. They were numberFire's 16th-ranked schedule-adjusted unit. Most of their dysfunction can be pinned on quarterback and running back.

The AFC West is a gauntlet, but the Kansas City Chiefs' Super Bowl hangover has already begun with cap casualties and another star wideout in legal trouble. That opens the door for all contenders, including Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos teams that outperformed expectations last year.

For the record, I wouldn't totally bury the possibility the Raiders draft a quarterback -- even at No. 6.

Smith's fit is still unknown, and they gave up very little to get him. If Shedeur Sanders somehow falls to their slot, Smith has missed all or part of five games in the last three seasons. He's not exactly an iron man, and Tom Brady, an advocate of Sanders, has preached ad nauseam about letting young QBs develop. One of my top comps for the accurate Sanders is...Geno Smith.

Las Vegas just isn't desperate anymore. They've got an answer and a clear path to build the offense around him. Scorned by mistakes in crucial moments, Seattle has turned their eyes to a younger Darnold, and the Raiders benefitted from it.

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