Home Run Props Today: Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks for Wednesday, September 16

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Mookie Betts (+430)
• Jackson Merrill (+340)
• Corbin Carroll (+450)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Picks, Props and Predictions Today

Home Run Prediction: Mookie Betts (+430)

Dodgers at Reds, 6:41 p.m. ET

Southpaw Andrew Abbott is on the bump for the Cincinnati Reds, and that has me interested in Mookie Betts.

Abbott is having a rough season, pitching to a 4.99 SIERA and 17.7% strikeout rate. He’s been in a huge funk, permitting a whopping 15 earned runs — including six tanks — over his past three outings.

Betts is heating up, mashing his way to a .460 wOBA and four bombs across his previous 56 plate appearances.

In addition to a big park-factor bump in Cincy, Betts will also get to face a Reds bullpen that ranks third-worst in reliever xFIP in 2026.

Home Run Prediction: Jackson Merrill (+340)

Padres at Rockies, 8:41 p.m. ET

Facing RHP Mason Adams tonight at Coors, Jackson Merrill stands out in the dinger market.

While Merrill’s .320 wOBA is underwhelming, he’s been a little unlucky as his expected wOBA sits at .347. The power has been there, with Merrill hitting a career-best 25 home runs. Of those 25 jacks, 15 have come on the road and 20 have come when Merrill has the platoon advantage.

Adams has flashed swing-and-miss stuff through his first 18.2 MLB innings. But he’s also allowed a 41.2% hard-hit rate and five homers over four appearances. He gave up two long-balls in 4.2 frames in his lone Coors start.

After Adams, Merrill will take his hacks against a Colorado Rockies bullpen that is fourth-worst in xFIP this year.

Home Run Prediction: Corbin Carroll (+450)

Marlins at Diamondbacks, 9:41 p.m. ET

Corbin Carroll has some stark home/road splits this campaign, and I’m interested in him today at home versus RHP Ryan Gusto.

At home in 2026, Carroll boasts a .372 wOBA, with 14 of his 21 home runs coming at home. Of those 21 bombs, 15 have come against RHPs. He’s also got a 42.0% hard-hit rate and 47.1% fly-ball rate with the platoon advantage this season.

After a solid 2025, Gusto’s numbers have taken a step back this year as he’s striking out just 18.7% of hitters. He’s surrendered a .345 wOBA and 1.67 homers per nine away from home, too.

Carroll has gone deep twice over his last four games, and he can leave the yard again today.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one plate appearance — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't record a plate appearance, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.