Home Run Props Today: Best MLB Home Run Predictions, Picks for Thursday, September 24

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Bryce Harper (+480)
• Yordan Alvarez (+220)
• Kyle Tucker (+600)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Picks, Props and Predictions Today

Home Run Prediction: Bryce Harper (+480)

Brewers at Phillies, 6:06 p.m. ET

Bryce Harper offers an intriguing blend of individual power and matchup appeal against Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Bryse Wilson.

Harper has clubbed 28 home runs this season while producing a .268/.381/.486 slash line and an .866 OPS. While his home-run production has cooled a bit recently, the underlying profile still gives him plenty of upside, particularly at Citizens Bank Park against a right-handed pitcher.

Wilson enters Thursday with a 3.67 ERA, but he's made all 15 of his MLB appearances this season out of the bullpen. Across 34.1 innings, he's allowed 41 hits while striking out only 30 batters. He's given up three home runs, and the combination of a low strikeout rate and plenty of balls in play should give Harper opportunities to do damage if Wilson works around the zone.

With Wilson being asked to transition from relief work into a starting assignment and Harper holding the platoon advantage, this is a spot where Philadelphia's star first baseman has a path to his 29th homer of the season.

Home Run Prediction: Yordan Alvarez (+220)

Astros at A’s, 9:41 p.m. ET

Yordan Alvarez is someone I am circling in Thursday's matchup with Athletics right-hander Mason Barnett.

Alvarez has been one of baseball's premier power bats all season, entering the day with 41 home runs while slashing .316/.432/.603. He's carrying a .287 ISO and has already gone deep four times in September, including a homer Tuesday in Seattle. He followed that up with another two-hit game Wednesday, so the Houston Astros' slugger is seeing the ball well coming into this matchup.

Barnett offers about as inviting of a pitching matchup as we could ask for. He owns a 7.16 ERA and 1.75 WHIP across 44.0 innings this season, surrendering 12 home runs in that span. His issues have been especially pronounced recently, as Barnett gave up seven homers across just 11.0 innings over his three August starts. Left-handed hitters have tagged him for a .510 slugging percentage and five home runs this year.

Add in homer-happy Sutter Health Park, and there’s a lot to like here.

That combination of the park, Alvarez's elite power and Barnett's problems keeping the ball in the yard puts Yordan firmly on the home run radar tonight.

Home Run Prediction: Kyle Tucker (+600)

Padres at Dodgers, 10:11 p.m. ET

Kyle Tucker hasn't had the overall season we've come to expect from him, but his recent power surge makes him an appealing option against Nick Pivetta.

Tucker enters Thursday with 17 home runs on the year, and six of those have come in September. He's heating up across the board late in the season, and Wednesday's 2-for-4 effort against San Diego gives him another multi-hit performance entering tonight's series finale.

Pivetta has actually pitched well since returning to the San Diego Padres‘ rotation, producing a 3.30 ERA and 1.00 WHIP with 35 strikeouts across 30.0 innings. He's surrendered only two home runs in that span, so this isn't a matchup where we're necessarily attacking the opposing starter's home-run issues.

Instead, Tucker is appealing because of how much better his power output has looked recently. He's already taken San Diego pitching deep this season, has six September homers, and carries the platoon advantage as a left-handed hitter against the right-handed Pivetta. This pick is more about buying into Tucker's late-season power surge than fading Pivetta.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one plate appearance — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't record a plate appearance, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

Play the FREE Daily Dingers Game and select a player you think will hit a home run today! If your player hits a DINGER, you’ll get a Profit Boost Token tomorrow to use on ANY MLB Wager! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today's other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.