Best Home Run Bet for Today: FanDuel Daily Dinger Pick for Thursday, September 24

Daily Dinger Home Run Pick

• Yordan Alvarez (+220)

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For today, who should you pick to hit a home run?

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. This HR pick is taken from today’s home run picks article. Click here to find it as well our other MLB betting content.

Best Home Run Pick Today, Daily Dinger

Home Run Prediction: Yordan Alvarez (+220)

Astros at A’s, 9:41 p.m. ET

Yordan Alvarez is someone I am circling in Thursday's matchup with Athletics right-hander Mason Barnett.

Alvarez has been one of baseball's premier power bats all season, entering the day with 41 home runs while slashing .316/.432/.603. He's carrying a .287 ISO and has already gone deep four times in September, including a homer Tuesday in Seattle. He followed that up with another two-hit game Wednesday, so the Houston Astros' slugger is seeing the ball well coming into this matchup.

Barnett offers about as inviting of a pitching matchup as we could ask for. He owns a 7.16 ERA and 1.75 WHIP across 44.0 innings this season, surrendering 12 home runs in that span. His issues have been especially pronounced recently, as Barnett gave up seven homers across just 11.0 innings over his three August starts. Left-handed hitters have tagged him for a .510 slugging percentage and five home runs this year.

Add in homer-happy Sutter Health Park, and there’s a lot to like here.

That combination of the park, Alvarez's elite power and Barnett's problems keeping the ball in the yard puts Yordan firmly on the home run radar tonight.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.