Home Run Picks Today: Chourio and Two Longshots Top Our Home Run Predictions

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Jonathan Aranda +430
• Jackson Chourio +350
• Trevor Larnach +520

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Home Run Predictions: MLB Home Run Picks for Today

Jonathan Aranda to Hit a Home Run (+430)

Diamondbacks at Rays, 7:11 p.m. ET

I covered Zac Gallen's struggles yesterday as I wrote up a couple St. Louis Cardinals bets. The Arizona Diamondbacks-Cards game ended up getting rained out, pushing Gallen back to today, where he'll take on the Tampa Bay Rays. That puts the Rays lefties in a superb spot.

Overall, Gallen is having a rough campaign, struggling to a 4.82 SIERA and 14.2% strikeout rate. He's been particularly bad against left-handed hitters, allowing a .399 wOBA and 52.3% hard-hit rate in the split.

Aranda broke out last year and is building on that this season. After a 14-homer year in 2025, Aranda already has 12 jacks in 2026 along with a .368 wOBA. He does most of his damage against RHPs, producing a .392 wOBA and 40.3% hard-hit rate against right-handers. Of his 12 long-balls this year, 11 have come with the platoon advantage, making this a great matchup for him.

Jackson Chourio to Hit a Home Run (+350)

Cubs at Brewers, 7:46 p.m. ET

Colin Rea is getting the ball for the Chicago Cubs, and he's showing reverse splits so far in 2026 as he's having a tough time against right-handed hitters.

Versus righties, Rea has been tagged for 2.10 home runs per nine innings and a 50.5% fly-ball rate -- which is miles higher than his 30.6% fly-ball rate allowed to lefties. Rea is also striking out only 15.7% of right-handers, so he's not missing bats and is letting up gobs of fly balls. Yes, please.

Chourio has slugged his way to 10 bombs and a career-high .374 wOBA. He also has a career-best mark in hard-hit rate (40.0%). His home wOBA is .389, and he's been good in righty-righty matchups, putting up a .367 wOBA in the split, with seven of his 10 tanks coming against right-handers.

Trevor Larnach to Hit a Home Run (+520)

Rockies at Twins, 8:11 p.m. ET

After a bleh first season in the bigs, Tomoyuki Sugano moved to the Colorado Rockies this offseason, and it's not going well.

Sugano has pitched to a 13.7% K rate and 5.07 SIERA. Lefty bats have hammered him to the tune of a .379 wOBA and 2.27 homers per nine. Despite playing his home games at Coors, Sugano has allowed more dingers per nine on the road (1.91) than at home (1.22).

Lefty-hitting Trevor Larnach is a pinch-hit risk if he comes up against a southpaw later in the game, but that's baked into his HR odds. He's in a great spot versus Sugano as he owns a .372 wOBA and 41.0% fly-ball rate against righties.

Larnach is also scorching hot right now, posting a .401 wOBA in June.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +310 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +310 line means a $100 bet returns $310 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +310 returns $31 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 24% for +310 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.