Fantasy Football Winners and Losers From Week 10
Week 10 was a volatile one for running backs.
Some guys -- like Christian McCaffrey, Chase Brown, and Audric Estime -- had the kind of usage that should change the way we view them going forward.
Others got noticeable ticks down, muddying their respective fantasy football outlooks.
Let's dive into whose stock is on the rise entering Week 11 and whose value we may need to reconsider. As a note, none of the "winners" will be due to injuries to teammates because nobody wins when someone's banged up. For a full rundown of key injuries, check out our Week 10 fantasy football recap.
All snap rates referenced are via Next Gen Stats.
Fantasy Football Stock Up
Audric Estime
Prior to Week 10, Audric Estime's highest snap rate this year was 10.3%.
He played 45.5% of the Denver Broncos' snaps on Sunday, operating as the team's lead back.
Estime finished with 14 carries and 0 targets. He ran just 7 routes on 32 drop backs, easily the key flaw in his profile. It's clear, though, that the team wanted to see what he could do.
If Estime can maintain this early-down usage while getting carries inside the red zone, he can be a startable fantasy option. Bo Nix has been efficient enough to support that, even if the role is flawed. We'll just want to keep expectations somewhat in check with targets unlikely to flow Estime's direction.
Estime is a priority add on waivers this week.
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Christian McCaffrey
The San Francisco 49ers did not conserve Christian McCaffrey in any way in his return.
McCaffrey played 88.5% of the snaps. His average snap rate during the regular season last year was 81.0%, and he exceeded 88.5% only 5 times.
Yowza.
McCaffrey likely will get scaled back in blowouts, so he's not a lock button to churn out 20 points every week. But he's about as close to last year's role as we possibly could have hoped for.
I'd doubt any McCaffrey season-long managers would be willing to trade you someone they held for two months. This is more to say that you should hold on tight to McCaffrey if he's on your roster, and he's someone we should actively target in DFS until people realize just how good his role was.
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Chase Brown
Obviously Ja'Marr Chase was the biggest winner on Thursday night with eye-popping numbers.
But Chase Brown sneakily got bumped up, as well.
That's due to the passing-game usage. Brown had 11 targets, more than double his previous high for this season. He had five in his other game without Zack Moss, so it looks like Brown's role through the air is going to be meaty.
The rushing efficiency wasn't there, but we wouldn't expect that against the Baltimore Ravens. Brown gets another tough matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers this week. We just don't need to worry much about the opponent when the player is getting this blend of rushing and receiving work.
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Rachaad White and Bucky Irving
If an offense is good enough, it can support two viable fantasy backs.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- with Mike Evans' return imminent -- are that good, and they trimmed their backfield down to two on Sunday.
With Sean Tucker playing zero snaps, Rachaad White and Bucky Irving handled all the work. Here's their usage from Sunday with "RZ Share" being the percentage of team carries or targets inside the red zone.
In Week 10 | Carries | Targets | Total Yards | Snap Rate | RZ Share |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rachaad White | 10 | 7 | 70 | 58.6% | 40.0% |
Bucky Irving | 13 | 3 | 87 | 48.3% | 30.0% |
In four games with this new setup, White is averaging 70.8 yards from scrimmage per game, and Irving is at 70.5. Those numbers are fine enough to make them flex plays in season-long. Pushing Tucker out of the picture could make them more than that.
We'll want to make sure this isn't a one-week blip where Tucker got squeezed. But once the Bucs come out of their bye, I do think we should boost our view of both these backs at least a bit in what has been a fantasy-friendly offense.
Jauan Jennings
Prior to Sunday, Jauan Jennings' max target total in a game with Deebo Samuel and George Kittle was six.
He led the team with 11 in Week 10. I don't know if he'll do that often, but it's nice to know that's in his range of outcomes.
Not only that, but Jennings' upside has been much better this year. He actually leads the team with 3.0 yards per route run, way up from 1.2 last year.
Jennings will have dud games. There are too many studs in this offense to avoid that. But he's now a perfectly acceptable season-long play, and he's on the map in DFS, too, thanks to his nice rapport with Brock Purdy.
Jalen Coker
We never want to get too excited about an offense as poor as the Carolina Panthers', and Jalen Coker has gotten bumps of hype a couple times already this year.
I do think, though, that his role is good enough for fantasy relevancy.
This team has played three games now without Diontae Johnson. In those, Coker is tied with Xavier Legette for the team lead in targets.
Past 3 Games | Overall Targets | Deep Targets | RZ Targets |
---|---|---|---|
Jalen Coker | 20.2% | 44.4% | 36.4% |
Xavier Legette | 20.2% | 33.3% | 18.2% |
David Moore | 15.5% | 5.6% | 9.1% |
If you're gonna be a bad offense, you gotta funnel volume to key players to make us care. And the Panthers are at least doing that.
I'd still prefer Legette straight up due to the draft pedigree. But both guys are at least startable in season-long, and that's more than you can typically ask for in this type of unit.
Fantasy Football Stock Down
JK Dobbins
J.K. Dobbins was trending down a bit of late with his efficiency declining. This makes sense for a guy who was getting tons of volume and has gone through a bunch of injuries.
His stock tumbled further with Gus Edwards back off IR in Week 10.
Dobbins had a 66.7% snap rate and 55 yards from scrimmage, both his worst marks since Week 3. Week 3 just so happens to be the last full game Edwards played before his injury.
That's probably not a coincidence.
Edwards handled 4 of 17 red-zone chances versus 3 for Dobbins, and Hassan Haskins snagged a pair, as well. Yardage and touchdowns are how you score fantasy points, and Dobbins got dents into both projections here.
Dobbins is still startable in season-long. This is an offense in which we want to invest. He's just not a guy we can start without a second thought every week, and alternatives should look more attractive to us now.
Tony Pollard
Tony Pollard missed some time in Week 10 due to an injury, so we want to take all numbers from this game with a grain of salt.
But the team held true to its promise to reduce his workload.
In Tyjae Spears' return from injury, Pollard played 52.9% of the snaps, his first time under 60% this year. He had just 9 carries and 4 targets, amounting to 63 yards from scrimmage. That was his second-lowest mark of the year.
Spears didn't look too shabby, either, so if the team wanted to trim back Pollard's usage without hurting the offense, they've got a route for doing so.
Similar to Dobbins, Pollard is still usable in fantasy. And, unlike Dobbins, Pollard is still the primary candidate for goal-line touches. We'll just want to be more cautious about starting him weekly, especially with so many viable running backs across the board this year.
The Cowboys' Offense
You knew things would be rough for the Dallas Cowboys with Dak Prescott sidelined potentially for the year.
But it was bad bad.
The team scored just six points against the Philadelphia Eagles. They benched Cooper Rush for Trey Lance only for Lance to play even worse. Rush averaged -0.60 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric) per drop back, about 0.70 points per drop back worse than the league average.
Lance was at -1.08. Each drop back of his lowered the team's expected points for the drive by more than a point.
Yikes.
This effectively kills all the secondary pieces on the team. Jake Ferguson will get empty targets, making him tough to stomach. Rico Dowdle should continue to operate as the lead back, but he'd need to separate more and become effectively an every-down back in order to be truly trustworthy in an offense this inept. And don't give Jalen Tolbert a second of thought until he gives you reason to reconsider.
As for CeeDee Lamb, he did have 10 targets here, and his target share was in the 30% range with Rush back in 2022. That's enough where you're not benching him, and it's likely better than what we got out of Tyreek Hill when his quarterback was out earlier this season. But you're certainly not obligated to start him if your alternatives are good enough, and that's just a depressing spot to be in with what should have been a fun offense.
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