Fantasy Football Week 10 News, Injuries, Role Changes, and Notes
Almost always, the focus of a fantasy football recap will be on injuries that occurred throughout the day. It's the nature of the beast.
Today, we get a ray of sunshine. Instead of the typical doom and gloom, we get to talk about the return of Christian McCaffrey.
Thank the heavens.
We'll run through McCaffrey's usage later on, plus other breakouts, noteworthy snap rates and target shares, and -- yes -- injuries. But having McCaffrey in the mix is a nice palate cleanser.
All snap-rate and average depth of target (aDOT) data is via Next-Gen Stats unless noted otherwise. A "deep" target here is a target more than 15 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
Key Injuries to Track Entering Week 11
Sam LaPorta
Sam LaPorta appeared to hurt his shoulder on a long catch in the third quarter of Sunday night's game for the Detroit Lions. LaPorta stayed on for the two plays after that but didn't see the field again.
It's a bummer for LaPorta, who was finally getting the kind of usage we were hoping for this year. He led the team with six targets through the first three quarters, and he turned it into 66 yards and a touchdown.
If LaPorta were to miss time, it'd boost Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams. The Lions don't throw a ton but are typically hyper-efficient, meaning every extra target a player gets carries gobs of value. Williams, specifically, would have a higher median expectation for season-long, reducing some of the boom/bust in his profile, allowing us to bet on a player with very obvious paths to a nice game.
As for the tight ends, I'd be unlikely to chase Brock Wright. Wright occasionally finds the end zone, but he's unlikely to provide much more than that. The position -- while flawed -- is deep enough where you can likely do better than that even if forced to replace LaPorta.
Najee Harris
Although Najee Harris was able to return to Sunday's game after suffering an ankle injury, he said he'd get more information on the injury on Monday. It's at least worth considering what things would look like if Harris were to miss time.
Jaylen Warren would likely be the lead back in a 70-30 split with Cordarrelle Patterson. Warren out-snapped Patterson, 45.3% to 10.7% on Sunday, and out-carried him, 14 to 3. Warren also had three red-zone chances to Patterson's zero.
We've seen Harris pop up with big games in this offense, so clearly the scheme is conducive to fantasy points even in a split backfield. Warren, himself, had 95 yards from scrimmage Sunday. You'd be able to start him with decent confidence if Harris were out, and he'd be on the DFS radar, as well.
Dalton Kincaid
The Buffalo Bills were already without both Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman on Sunday, and then Dalton Kincaid went down with a knee injury and didn't return. Kincaid said after the game he wasn't sure the extent of the injury.
Without Kincaid, the team had no downfield juice with Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel operating as the top pass-catchers. Shakir had nine targets, and Samuel was second on the team with eight. Neither had an aDOT above eight yards.
That's fine for those guys and does help their expectations. But if the Bills have additional time without Cooper, Coleman, and Kincaid, it's going to make Josh Allen dependent on rushing to generate upside. It does help that he ran five times inside the red zone, his highest single-game mark of the season.
Unsurprisingly, Dawson Knox's role surged. Knox earned three total targets with a 10.6-yard aDOT and ran a route on 11 of 15 second-half drop backs. He'd be a decent streamer in season-long if Kincaid were to miss time.
Miles Sanders
This will likely wind up being moot with Jonathon Brooks likely to debut after the Carolina Panthers' bye, but Miles Sanders was quickly ruled out after being carted off with a lower-body injury.
Chuba Hubbard shifted into an every-down role, handling 28 carries and 6 targets with 169 yards from scrimmage. His usage will take a hit once Brooks takes the field, but it should be just those two dominating snaps.
Fantasy Football Role Changes
Travis Etienne
One week after seemingly losing his starting gig, Travis Etienne was once again the Jacksonville Jaguars' lead back Sunday.
Etienne played 67.4% of the snaps, running laps around Tank Bigsby at 23.3%. Etienne outcarried Bigsby, 11-2, as well. This could be in part due to Bigsby's battling an ankle injury, but we'll learn more about that when Wednesday's injury report comes out.
This may not wind up mattering a ton. Trevor Lawrence is banged up and may miss extended time, and the offense was dysfunctional under Mac Jones. But we should go back to treating Etienne as the lead back -- for whatever that is worth -- rendering Bigsby unstartable for now.
Tony Pollard
The Tennessee Titans' coaching staff has been saying for a while that they wanted to lessen Tony Pollard's workload.
With Tyjae Spears finally back from a hamstring injury, they were able to do that Sunday.
Pollard played just 52.9% of the snaps, easily his lowest of the season. Part of that is because Pollard got banged up mid-game, but it was clear from the jump that Spears would be involved.
When Spears was healthy earlier in the year, Pollard's snap rate was in the 60s. I'd expect him to settle in around there again, assuming he's healthy. That's enough where he's startable in season-long leagues but not as locked-in as he was while Spears was out.
JK Dobbins
J.K. Dobbins' role surged when Gus Edwards was put on IR. Thus, it shouldn't be a huge surprise that he took a hit with Edwards back in Week 10.
Dobbins played 66.7% of the snaps, his fewest since Week 3. Dobbins' 55 yards from scrimmage were also his fewest since then, and his efficiency was on the decline even before Edwards' return.
Most concerning, though, is the red-zone role. Dobbins had just 3 of 17 red-zone chances versus 4 for Edwards and 2 for Hassan Haskins. It makes sense that Edwards would get work there, given his skillset, so I don't think this was a fluke.
Dobbins is still someone you can use in season-long, but alternatives should be given more consideration now than they were before. And he's not really someone I want to target in DFS until his salary declines to reflect his new role.
Audric Estime
It had been hinted at for weeks, but it finally happened: Audric Estime took over as the Denver Broncos' lead back Sunday.
Estime's role was more "fine" than "amazing" as he played 45.5% of the snaps, besting Javonte Williams at 29.1%. Still, Estime handled 14 of 17 running-back carries and 2 of 6 red-zone opportunities, so he was clearly getting a full audition.
This sends Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin to the shadow realm and makes Estime well worth an add in season-long. And there is reason to believe better days could be ahead.
Sunday's matchup was against the Kansas City Chiefs, who entered Week 10 as the fourth-ranked schedule-adjusted rush defense, per numberFire's metrics. Next week, the Broncos get the Atlanta Falcons, who are 18th. Estime's immediately startable in season-long, and he'll be a DFS consideration as long as his salary is reasonable.
Jalen Coker and Xavier Legette
In the first game without Jonathan Mingo, Jalen Coker had a healthy role for the Panthers.
Coker led the team with 8 targets on just 25 targeted throws from Bryce Young. Three of those were deep with one in the red zone.
In three games without Diontae Johnson, both Coker and Xavier Legette have a 20.2% target share, and they've handled a combined 77.7% of the deep targets. It's not an offense we want to get too high on, but Coker and Legette are fine season-long options, and they're at least bring-back options when you like the opposing team in DFS.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
With Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave both on IR, it was tough to know who would step up at wide receiver for the New Orleans Saints.
I don't think many had Marquez Valdes-Scantling being that guy.
MVS produced big time, hauling in 2 long balls -- and 3 total catches -- for 109 yards and 2 touchdowns. Those three targets actually ranked second on the team behind Alvin Kamara with six.
That's the good, and it means you can consider adding MVS in season-long. You'll just want to avoid over-confidence.
Valdes-Scantling was available on the street for a reason. He couldn't stick on a Bills roster that was hurting for pass-catchers. Additionally, we have a long sample on him not being a consistent target-earner, meaning he'll be dependent on volatile, downfield targets to come through. That can happen -- as we saw here -- but predicting his spike weeks won't be an easy task.
Noteworthy Fantasy Football Usage
Christian McCaffrey
Entering Sunday, I expected the San Francisco 49ers to ease McCaffrey back into action against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in order to keep him fresh for later in the season.
Nope.
Instead, McCaffrey played an unhinged 88.5% of the snaps. Bonkers.
McCaffrey turned 13 carries and 7 targets into 107 yards from scrimmage. He didn't score, so he finished with a modest 13.7 FanDuel points, meaning his usage may fly a bit under the radar.
Buy. Buy. Buy.
If the 49ers are going to treat him like his old self, so should we. He's back to being one of the top backs in fantasy and someone we should aggressively pursue in all formats.
The 49ers' Pass-Catchers
The second assumption I made about the 49ers in McCaffrey's return is that he would hurt Jauan Jennings' usage.
Wrong again, dummy!
Instead, Jennings led the team with 11 targets, turning them into 93 yards. That target total was his second-highest mark of the season and easily clear of Deebo Samuel (six targets) and George Kittle (four).
That's not going to stick. Those two are sickos, and they produced even on limited usage. Thus, we should expect them to trend up in future games, and some of that will come out of Jennings' piggy bank. But we absolutely should boost our view of him going forward.
Even Ricky Pearsall managed to get six targets here, one of which went for a 46-yard touchdown. There are a lot of (very good) mouths to feed.
This is a bummer because it means star players will have down games, as we saw from Samuel on Sunday. But they're still worth starting in fantasy, and we can take swipes at them in DFS, too, because everybody in this offense -- including Brock Purdy -- has an obvious path to a ceiling. They're unlikely to be cash-game plays, but for tournaments, they'll be worth the risk.
Ja'Marr Chase and Chase Brown
We had been waiting for Ja'Marr Chase to have a game where he dominated targets for the Cincinnati Bengals.
Whew, buddy, did we get that.
Chase turned 17 targets into 264 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Baltimore Ravens. That was his third straight game getting 11-plus targets, and 7 of them were deep with 2 in the red zone.
Chase was producing even without monster usage. He can do that with his big-play abilities. His usage will likely scale back a bit once Tee Higgins returns, but it doesn't matter. It's hard to top his outlook regardless of Higgins' health.
As for Chase Brown, he was second on the team with 11 targets while playing 88.0% of the snaps. This was super encouraging, given the team didn't seem to trust Brown on obvious passing downs earlier in the year. Even with Khalil Herbert in town, it seems like Brown's going to get the high-value touches here, making him an elite fantasy back in an offense to which we want exposure.
Rachaad White and Bucky Irving
The Bucs' backfield is still a committee, but it's now a duo rather than a trio.
Sean Tucker didn't play an offensive snap Sunday, ceding all of that work to Rachaad White and Bucky Irving. In a backfield that gets a good number of high-value touches, that's meaningful.
White led the way with 58.6% of the snaps, 7 targets, and 4 red-zone chances (out of 10 total) while Irving led with 13 carries. Both players, though, got a blend of early-down, late-down, and red-zone work, which is key for fantasy.
If they keep it a two-man backfield, both guys are startable each week for fantasy. Think of it as a diet version of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.
The Bucs aren't as good of an offense, but it does sound like Mike Evans should return after their Week 11 bye. Baker Mayfield made some incredible plays Sunday and was generally efficient even without Evans, so adding him back into the equation should make things even better. People with White and Irving on their rosters should be pleased with Sunday's developments, and the two are now at least fringe considerations for DFS, as well.
Alec Pierce
With Michael Pittman Jr. sidelined, Alec Pierce shifted into a much bigger role.
Pierce finished second on the team with seven targets, only the second time he has gotten more than five this year. Three of those were deep, and Pierce turned that volume into 81 yards and a touchdown.
The touchdown came in garbage time, and four of his seven overall targets were in the fourth quarter. Thus, even if Pittman misses more time, we'd want to keep median expectations for Pierce low. But it'd make his path to a ceiling more clear, making him a desperation season-long play and a fringe DFS option, as well.
Additional Notes
- With no Isaiah Likely, Mark Andrews finished second on the Ravens with a season-high seven targets. He ran 31 routes on 33 drop backs, so whenever Likely is out, we should view Andrews -- for the first time this year -- as an every-down player.
- Kayshon Boutte had six targets for the third straight game and multiple deep targets for the fourth straight. Boutte still hasn't hit 60 yards in a game yet, but he has the building blocks to get there. He's worth an add in season-long and does seem to have at least some upside.
- Aaron Jones said after Week 10 he was all good despite getting carted off mid-game Sunday. With Jones missing some time, though, Cam Akers out-snapped Ty Chandler, 29.3% to 14.6%, meaning he'd be the lead back in a likely committee if Jones were to miss time down the stretch.
- We saw a more calm version of Will Levis in his return. Only 2 of his 23 attempts were deep, and it led to decent levels of efficiency (relative to his baseline). We saw Calvin Ridley produce, and I do think this version of Levis -- if it sticks -- would be a slight boost for Ridley from where he was in Levis' first stint as starter.
- Mike Williams' big touchdown in his Pittsburgh Steelers debut came on just six routes run. He'll eventually eat into the workloads of Van Jefferson and Calvin Austin III, so he's worth a stash, but I wouldn't leap to dump him into starting lineups just yet.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.