Fantasy Football: Finding Every Running Back's League-Winning Odds

Everybody wants to draft league-winning players in fantasy football. That's the whole point.

Often, true league-winners are found in the first round of fantasy football drafts.

And while it's true that a fourth-string running back can catch fire and outperform average draft position (ADP), what are the odds an undrafted fantasy RB winds up as the RB for the season? (Hint: not great!)

But if we played out the 2024 NFL season 10,000 times, there will be a few instances where surprises happen, where studs bust, and where sleepers hit.

So, while anything is possible in a sense, we should also be trying to seek out what is most probable when it comes to our fantasy football drafts.

And that's why I like to simulate out the season thousands of times to see how likely each player is to reach certain fantasy football benchmarks.

I've already taken a look at the quarterback league-winner odds and wide receiver league-winner odds. Let's take a look at the RBs.

Simulating the NFL Season

I love fantasy football projections. I really do. I like to build my own that account for regression from the year prior and personnel changes.

But in most instances, projections are giving us a singular outlook for a player. What is "most likely" to occur.

But we only get one crack at the 2024 NFL season, and a pulled hamstring or bad touchdown luck can derail even the most precise preseason projections.

Which is why I like to look at a range of outcomes based on numberFire's fantasy football projections and a whole lot of math beyond that to figure out how the season may look.

The real litmus test for me is to make sure that the results I'm seeing are somewhat reflective of fantasy football history.

With that in mind, I pulled ADPs and fantasy outputs for running backs since 2016 from numberFire's database to see how often players in certain ADP buckets reached certain fantasy rank thresholds for that season.

The below table shows how likely an RB from a certain ADP bucket finished as the top fantasy scorer (or top-five, etc.) since 2016.

What this shows is that -- of the 48 RBs drafted with a top-six ADP since 2016 -- 12.5% of them (6 of 48) ended up leading the league in fantasy points, and 18 of them (37.5%) wound up top-five in fantasy points for the season.

What you'll see, also, is that no RB in this span with an ADP lower than RB12 led the league in scoring.

Let's take a closer look at the true RB1s because it's an important thing to keep in mind when throwing around the term "league-winning."

The lowest ADP (by numberFire's database) from an eventual RB1 in half-PPR formats over the last eight seasons was that of the RB10, which was Todd Gurley in the 2017 season when he scored 19 times and totaled 2,093 yards.

The only other RB1 with an ADP worse than RB5 was Jonathan Taylor (RB9) in his 2021 sophomore season.

Okay, so let's say that being the true RB1 isn't the only "league-winning" description we want to consider.

Of the 40 RBs to give us a top-five fantasy season over the last eight seasons, only four had an ADP worse than RB26. True surprises are rare -- even for "just" a top-five season.

Those names, by the way, either had outlier touchdown rates or just carved out roles that were unexpected:

• James Conner (RB35 in 2021): He scored 18 touchdowns on just 1,127 scrimmage yards.
• Raheem Mostert (RB45 in 2023): He scored 21 touchdowns on 1,187 yards and is the most logical touchdown regression candidate in my historical database.
• Alvin Kamara (RB54 in 2017): Kamara's rookie season came with workload questions behind Mark Ingram, and Kamara's efficiency and receiving role proved to be off the charts.
• Kyren Williams (RB59 in 2023): Williams carved out a true featured role early in the season in an ambiguous backfield.

Expecting historical outlier TD rates isn't a good draft strategy, and while the drafting consensus can misread RB roles entering the season, largely, public perception is pretty accurate. Kyren Williams-esque seasons just don't really happen very often.

2024 Fantasy Football League-Winning Running Back Odds

Here are the results from the 10,000 simulated seasons.

Again, these are meant to account for historical injury rates, outlier performances in touchdown rates (above or below expectation), and other factors that can impact a baseline fantasy projection.

Of course, within all this discourse, the term "league-winner" is very subjective. Having the RB1, the player who outscores all the other RBs is definitely a league-winner.

At a depth-based position, having a late-round or undrafted back become a weekly starter and a top-24 performer is a league-winner in a sense, too.

With that out of the way, let's take a look at how likely each RB is to reach certain benchmarks this season -- again, with numberFire's fantasy football projections as the baseline.

It's Christian McCaffrey's World

Anywhere you look, Christian McCaffrey is the RB1 entering the season.

numerFire's model projects him for 352.4 half-PPR points with only two other backs -- Breece Hall (289.5) and Bijan Robinson (288.9) -- above 255.0 points.

That basically means that two backs are within 100 points of McCaffrey's season-long projection over 17 games.

Whew.

Even when injecting chaos into the NFL season and playing it out 10,000 times, McCaffrey is nearly 25.0% likely to finish the season as the RB1 with a projection that high compared to everyone else.

In roughly 10% of seasons, McCaffrey finishes outside the top 24 at the position, and well, it's a possibility that one of those instances is what we get in 2024.

However, when putting math behind a projection that's around 62 points higher than any other RB (or around 3.6 points per game clear of the RB2!), McCaffrey is breaking historical precedent.

The Two Contenders

Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson are in a tier of their own, and they look more like normal historical top-tier RBs compared than the fantasy cheat code that is CMC.

Hall and Robinson also are being drafted as a tier of their own before a drop to the rest of the RBs, so that tracks.

Hall is a fascinating case of someone who produced in a bad situation and is now entering a situation that should be better with Aaron Rodgers under center.

Breece averaged 93.2 scrimmage yards per game last season as well as 5.6 targets per game (a 16.9% target share).

The yards-per-game tally was third-best among RBs, behind McCaffrey (128.6), Kyren Williams (105.8). Hall's target share ranked fourth among all RBs in 2023 behind McCaffrey (19.7%), Kamara (19.2%), and...Bijan Robinson (17.1%).

In addition to an elite target market share, Robinson's yardage output (86.1 scrimmage yards per game) was a top-15 mark, and his offense is expected to take a big leap, too, with Kirk Cousins under center.

These two clearly have the potential to be the RB1 -- if McCaffrey is limited for any reason.

Other Notable Names

A few other names have at least a 3.0% chance to finish the year as the RB1. Let's briefly dig into them now.

Saquon Barkley: Barkley's first year on the Philadelphia Eagles will be pretty interesting to track, as quarterback Jalen Hurts has had a dominant goal line role in recent seasons and the Eagles generally don't feature a single running back. Those two things should change with a back as talented as Barkley in the fold, and if his usage is competitive with the other top backs, then a top-five campaign with weekly upside seems imminent.

Jahmyr Gibbs: Gibbs will still be splitting work with David Montgomery, which naturally caps his upside as far as the median projections go. In 15 games with both active last season (including the playoffs), Gibbs led in snap rate (50.5% to 48.2%) but was less productive in the yardage department (73.5 versus 79.9). Montgomery's red zone role can also play a factor for Gibbs' reduced ceiling -- in terms of being the sheer RB1.

Jonathan Taylor: In the 2023 season, Taylor returned to the Indianapolis Colts' lineup slowly and worked his way into a bigger role. He finally surpassed a 50.0% snap rate in Week 8, and after that, he played on 68.4% of the Colts' snaps in his active games.

After Week 8, Taylor also averaged 96.4 scrimmage yards per game, a top-tier rate for running backs.

Because he missed the early part of the season, Taylor never got to play with rushing QB Anthony Richardson, and lanes could be open for the RB with the threat of Richardson.

Kyren Williams: Williams has already been mentioned as a surprise fantasy breakout last season, and he now projects for a featured role with the Los Angeles Rams. Williams is firmly part of the third tier of RBs, and no back averaged more snaps per game (54.8) than Williams in the regular season.

If he can maintain a role like that, he's in the mix for another top-five campaign.

De'Von Achane: Speaking of breakouts, Achane already broke out to a degree last season but ultimately suited up for only 12 games for the Miami Dolphins (including the playoffs).

Achane was notably more efficient (other than the TD column) than other Miami RBs, which is why I think he can truly break out in 2024 with better health and an expanded role -- and why Aidan Cotter thinks Achane can win your league.

Travis Etienne: The ninth and final back with at least a 3.0% chance to be the overall RB1 is Etienne, who has been the RB15 and the RB4 in his two NFL seasons.

Etienne played on 73.3% of the Jacksonville Jaguars' snaps in 2023 during the regular season, and only five other backs had a better snap rate.

Alvin Kamara: Kamara's stock is lower than his projections suggest. He missed four games last season and wound up as just the RB16 for the second straight season, but that's actually his career low. He was also the RB5 by half-PPR points per game.

Kamara's adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) -- a better explanation of RB workload than raw opportunities or touches -- per game of 27.2 were just 0.2 worse than Christian McCaffrey's league-leading 27.4, and nobody else was better than 26.5.

Kamara is now projected by numberFire for 26.3 adjusted opportunities per game, which would be fifth-best among all RBs. Kamara seems to have an uphill battle for the RB1 spot but could produce a top-five fantasy workload pretty easily if his usage goes as expected.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.