Fantasy Football: Finding Every Quarterback's League-Winning Odds

Everybody wants to draft league-winning players in fantasy football. That's the whole point.

Often, true league-winners are found in the first round of fantasy football drafts.

And while it's true that a backup quarterback can catch fire and outperform average draft position (ADP), what are the odds an undrafted fantasy quarterback winds up as the QB1 for the season? (Hint: not great!)

But if we played out the 2024 NFL season 10,000 times, there will be a few instances where surprises happen, where studs bust, and where sleepers hit.

So, while anything is possible in a sense, we should also be trying to seek out what is most probable when it comes to our fantasy football drafts.

And that's why I like to simulate out the season thousands of times to see how likely each player is to reach certain fantasy football benchmarks.

Let's dig into the 2024 QB season and see what jumps out. Or, more importantly, who jumps out.

Simulating the NFL Season

I love fantasy football projections. I really do. I like to build my own that account for regression from the year prior and personnel changes.

But in most instances, projections are giving us a singular outlook for a player. What is "most likely" to occur.

But we only get one crack at the 2024 NFL season, and a pulled hamstring or bad touchdown luck can derail even the most precise preseason projections.

Which is why I like to look at a range of outcomes based on numberFire's fantasy football projections and a whole lot of math beyond that to figure out how the season may look.

The real litmus test for me is to make sure that the results I'm seeing are somewhat reflective of fantasy football history.

With that in mind, I pulled ADPs and fantasy outputs for quarterbacks since 2016 from numberFire's database to see how often players in certain ADP buckets reached certain fantasy rank thresholds for that season.

The below table shows how likely a QB from a certain ADP bucket finished as the top fantasy scorer (or top-five, etc.) since 2016.

For example, of all the QBs with a top-four ADP since 2016, 12.5% of them (4 of 32) led the season in fantasy points to be the overall QB1. And 43.8% of them (14 of 32) were top-five fantasy QBs.

With that in mind, the season simulations should somewhat resemble history, though it's important to note that a few QBs are really projected well by nF -- and that there's a pretty flat tapering off beyond them.

2024 Fantasy Football League-Winning Quarterback Odds

Here are the results from the 10,000 simulated seasons.

Again, these are meant to account for historical injury rates, outlier performances in touchdown rates (above or below expectation), and other factors that can impact a baseline fantasy projection.

Of course, within all this discourse, the term "league-winner" is very subjective. Having the QB1, the player who outscores all the other quarterbacks (usually by a decent margin) is definitely a league-winner.

Is having the undrafted QB5 a league-winner, too, because of the minimal opportunity cost required to attain a top-five season? It depends on your mindset.

With that out of the way, let's take a look at how likely each QB is to reach certain benchmarks this season -- again, with numberFire's fantasy football projections as the baseline.

Note: Quarterbacks without a clear starting role aren't projected for enough fantasy points to post relevant league-winning outputs.

The Big Four

Unsurprisingly, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes are rating out well in the simulations in terms of league-leading odds. Their season-long baseline projections via numberFire's model are roughly 30 points or more than any other QBs.

And so, yes, these are still the names most likely to be the actual league-winners. The actual QB1.

Interestingly, when I dug into touchdown regression for quarterbacks this season, Mahomes was pegged as a clear regression candidate, a player who should score at a higher rate this season than last season.

But he lacks the true, high-end rushing potential that the other three in this tier offer.

The highest rushing expectations at the entire position belong to Jackson, who is projected for 55.5 rushing yards per game this season.

Notably, Jalen Hurts has similar outcomes to Josh Allen but for an ADP roughly a round later than Allen's. Hurts' patented Brotherly Shove remains legal for 2024, and while he is losing center Jason Kelce, the offensive line still projects to be a top-tier unit in the league. There's a goal-line role for Hurts that is virtually unmatchable.

Allen also was the largest overperformer in the touchdown column last season at the position, so regression -- and the loss of Stefon Diggs -- could be the reason he doesn't repeat as the QB1 for the fourth time in five years.

Either way, the Big Four -- mathematically -- have a stranglehold on QB1 odds, as the tier comprises 53.0% of the QB1 seasons across the 10,000 simulations.

Tier 2

Beyond the Big Four is a tier of five names that jump off the page a bit.

• Anthony Richardson (8.2%)
• C.J. Stroud (6.4%)
• Joe Burrow (4.9%)
• Kyler Murray (4.8%)
• Dak Prescott (4.6%)

All have interesting cases.

History says that we should be quite high on Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson because of his rushing potential, which is historically tied to a higher fantasy football ceiling (both subjectively and objectively).

The simulations and projections are also high on Richardson.

Richardson's supporting cast should be improved this year, as the team drafted Adonai Mitchell in the second round and bolstered the interior offensive line. Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs make for a formidable trio of WRs for Richardson, who needs just moderate passing stats if his rushing potential flashes.

Stroud, despite a phenomenal season, slightly underperformed in the touchdown column, and he now has Stefon Diggs to throw to -- in addition to Nico Collins and Tank Dell.

Expectations for Joe Burrow were dashed early last season because of a calf injury, and a late-season wrist injury ended his campaign early. He averaged just 6.3 yards per attempt and 15.3 fantasy points per game.

We still saw the upside from him once he was healthy. From Week 5 to Week 10, Burrow averaged 22.2 fantasy points and went for at least 21.0 in four of those five games.

The next name in this tier is Kyler Murray. Murray has finished as the QB20 or worse in each of the last two seasons while playing 19 games total in that span. Murray averaged 5.5 carries and 30.5 rushing yards once returning last season, and he scored three times on the ground (in his first three games back, for what it's worth).

Murray has Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride to throw to this season, which could help increase his passing efficiency from what it was last season when he lacked a secondary target behind the then-second-year TE, McBride.

Prescott and CeeDee Lamb were quite the duo last season, and Prescott accounted for 4.8 more touchdowns than expected, which puts him into regression territory. With that said, his adjusted efficiency numbers were great in 2023, and the numbers say he's in a crucial tier of QB1 odds before they drop precipitously.

Later-Round Potential League-Winners

The history, the projections, and the simulations all point to the chalk accounting for the QB1 season, but if seeking some decent high-end odds outside the top nine by ADP, consider these names:

Jayden Daniels: When talking about upside at quarterback in fantasy football, you have to consider rushing potential, and the candidate to look at first (outside the top-12 in ADP) is Daniels.

Daniels easily led all NCAA QBs in Rushing QBR (and overall QBR while we're at it) a season ago and is projected to rank fourth in rushing yards, via numberFire, among all quarterbacks. Factoring in that to the simulations, he pops out a bit more than the rest.

Trevor Lawrence: Lawrence has a good bit going for him this season. Namely, he's due for mega, multi-season touchdown regression. Calvin Ridley is gone, but he has veterans Evan Engram, Christian Kirk, and Gabe Davis to throw to -- plus rookie first-rounder Brian Thomas Jr..

Caleb Williams: While the simulation method is meant to help us uncover and account for variance, there can be a lot of variance in certain situations. Variance can lead to bust potential. It can also lead to big ceilings.

For Williams, he's new to the league on a team that has a new offensive coordinator as well as a revamped group of pass-catchers with Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze joining D.J. Moore.

From a baseline standpoint, Williams projects out as a "tweener" between Tier 2 and Tier 3.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.