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Fantasy Football: One Breakout Candidate From Every NFL Team
Sleepers, league-winners, hidden gems.
Call them what you want, but we all want to find breakout players in fantasy football drafts.
The definition of these terms can vary wildly, and while you may know deep down that your team's fourth-string running back would be a fantasy football superstar if given a chance, we have to be pragmatic when it comes to fantasy football, too.
We need realistic chances that a player will see the field (which is pretty important for actually generating fantasy points) and have meaningful opportunities to do so.
With that said, let's take a look at a breakout candidate (or maybe two) from every NFL team ahead of the 2024 season.
Fantasy football projections via numberFire.
Fantasy Football Breakout Candidates
AFC East
Buffalo Bills
Yes, I'm going to feature two candidates from our very first team, but there's a good reason for it.
One of the pass-catchers for the Buffalo Bills has to elevate this season for Josh Allen, last season's QB1 in fantasy football.
The departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis leave behind a lot of the team's target market share to be dispersed between tight end Dalton Kincaid and wide receivers Shakir, Coleman, and Curtis Samuel.
Notably, Shakir drew a 17.9% target share in two postseason games last year with Davis sidelined while also owning a 78.9% route rate. So, we've seen the glimpses already.
Shakir is a low-aDOT (average depth of target) player, and so Coleman easily could be the highest scorer of this trio, but it's hard to be low on Shakir whose average draft position (ADP) is lowest of the three Bills WRs.
Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins are one of the hardest teams in the league on which to identify a breakout candidate because of their concentrated usage and high ADPs across the board.
But it's very possible we haven't seen the best from Achane.
Yes, we know about the elite per-carry numbers for Achane, but his rushing success rate (the percentage of carries that increased EPA) was 52.3%. All other Miami RBs? 41.6%. Achane can rip off huge plays -- but also could be the team's most consistent option.
Further, last season, Raheem Mostert scored touchdowns at a historic rate, a rate that really can't continue, and while Achane also overperformed, his role can grow a lot from what it was last season.
Achane is projected to be the RB10 by numberFire, and Aidan Cotter thinks Achane is a true league-winner.
New England Patriots
The New England Patriots' rebuild may take a while, and we do want passing efficiency in fantasy football so that our WRs can score touchdowns.
But Polk was the 37th pick of the 2024 NFL Draft and will be linked to rookie QB Drake Maye as this offense finds its new identity.
numberFire's model projects Polk for an 18.5% target share, a team-high.
His aDOT was 13.8 yards last season with the Washington Huskies, a top-six rate among 43 WRs with at least 100 targets, via PFF. Targets and air yards could be headed his way.
New York Jets
Corley will be running behind Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams on the WR depth chart for the New York Jets, but Williams has played just 16 games over the last two seasons, and if Aaron Rodgers can return to form, he can support three pass-catchers in this offense.
Corley was a third-round pick this season (65th overall, the 12th WR off the board), and he has a claim to a big slot role within this offense. Corley was in the slot on 85.9% of his snaps last season with the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, via PFF.
Also via PFF, Corley ranked fifth in the nation in yards after the catch in 2023.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
We here at FanDuel Research are all over the Bateman hype train, and it's for good reason.
Bateman signed a three-year contract extension this offseason, and the team is high on Bateman's potential.
Bateman is projected for a 15.0% target share in the offense and will be tied to one of the league's best teams.
With an ADP well outside the top 60 at WR, Bateman has all the makings of a breakout candidate.
Cincinnati Bengals
Although the Cincinnati Bengals currently list Zack Moss first on the depth chart at running back, Brown has taken a lot of the first-team reps in camp.
He's projected for more than 50 targets and had a 65.6% opportunity-per-snap rate last season (carries plus targets per snap) in a limited role. Basically, that was the top rate in football among relevant players.
The team wanted to get him the ball last season, and now, Joe Mixon isn't standing in the way.
Cleveland Browns
Running back Jerome Ford also has a breakout case, but the change of scenery for Jeudy could result in a career year.
Jeudy joins a Cleveland Browns team with three other viable pass-catchers but gives Deshaun Watson a second downfield threat to take pressure off of Amari Cooper (and vice versa).
numberFire's model is projecting Jeudy for a 19.5% target share, which definitely deserves some draft day attention at an ADP of WR55.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Freiermuth maintained a 14.6% target share last season with the Pittsburgh Steelers, and now the team's offensive coordinator -- Arthur Smith -- could help to increase that rate.
Smith's offense with the Atlanta Falcons was TE-heavy a year ago. Their tight end group ranked third in target market share (32.0%).
numberFire is projecting Freiermuth for a 17.5% target share, similar to Kyle Pitts' 17.7% from a year ago.
AFC South
Houston Texans
While it's true that Dell pretty much broke out as a rookie and that he has competition for targets with Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs, it's not unreasonable that he maintains efficiency -- and enough volume -- to outperform his WR29 ADP.
numberFire is projecting Dell for a 20.0% target share, third on the Houston Texans. It's not unheard of for three WRs to maintain a target share of 18.0% or more in offenses that have that luxury, and this offense rates out to be a top-12 unit by Jim Sannes' offensive projections.
And while Collins has the reputation as the downfield receiver, Dell actually had more downfield targets per game (4.1 to 3.4) and a higher aDOT (14.2 to 10.9) last season.
Indianapolis Colts
I'm not going to overthink this one. Richardson has legitimate QB1 potential, and his rushing ability means big things for fantasy football.
Richardson played two full games in 2023, and he had 10 carries in each of those.
There is naturally going to be risk in a rushing QB, and yes, Richardson's ADP is that of the QB6.
But a chance at a potential week-winner who hasn't fully broken out is too hard to gloss over here.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Brian Thomas Jr. was the fourth WR off the board in this year's NFL Draft, and he has a lot of volume potential in his first season with the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Thomas Jr. is projected for an 18.5% target share in the offense (110.3 total targets) and is projected to finish as the WR42 despite an ADP of WR50. That itself isn't a huge ROI.
However, QB Trevor Lawrence is due for multi-season touchdown regression, and he opened things up down the stretch. Lawrence's aDOT went from 7.1 before a Week 9 bye to 9.3 the rest of the way.
Last season, Thomas Jr. ranked second in yards on deep targets, via PFF, and nobody had more than his 12 TDs on such passes.
Tennessee Titans
I nearly went with both Spears and Tony Pollard here because there's a chance that one of them emerges to lead this backfield.
Spears actually recorded 70 targets a year ago, a top-10 number among all running backs, and he's due for some slight touchdown regression, too.
I do have to note that Pollard is actually the most obvious TD regression candidate among running backs entering this season and that he had 67 targets with the Dallas Cowboys last season.
numberFire projects them with similar workloads but leans toward Pollard.
Pollard is the safer bet for early-season production, yet Spears could surpass him if Pollard continues to struggle with efficiency in a leading capacity like we've seen in the past.
AFC West
Denver Broncos
Though the Denver Broncos won't be the first place we look for fantasy points this season, there are some potential breakout candidates here who need a lot to go their way (including RBs Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estime) in order to become consistent performers for our teams.
We can also look to Mims, who slots in as the WR2 for a Broncos offense that has targets to fill after the departure of Jerry Jeudy.
Mims' snaps never really increased to a notable degree during the 2023 season, but after the team's Week 9 bye last season, he increased his snap rate from sub-30% to 46.2%.
Opportunity is what could lead to success for Mims, who is doing well in camp and who scored already in the preseason.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs moved up to draft Worthy 28th overall, who is set up for success in the offense.
Worthy's blazing speed (a 4.21-second 40-yard dash) can lift the lid for this offense and potentially help reverse the low-aDOT trend for Patrick Mahomes and company in recent seasons as teams sell out to stop the deep ball.
There is target competition for Worthy, including fellow deep threat Marquise Brown, yet Worthy's ceiling is immense if he becomes the team's WR2 (or better).
Las Vegas Raiders
It's true that Brock Bowers, the 13th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, has a breakout case in the tight end landscape, but he has enough competition for targets that we can also look to White in the backfield as the featured breakout candidate here.
White is one of 19 backs projected for at least a 50.0% rushing share and an 8.5% target share, per numberFire, and we saw White do work last season without Josh Jacobs (who is now with the Green Bay Packers).
In four games without Jacobs, White averaged 114.3 scrimmage yards on 21.0 carries and 3.3 targets per game. He also handled 63.2% of the team's red zone rushes and 28.9% of the total red zone opportunities in those games.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Los Angeles Chargers have potential for unexpected fantasy production, but that's largely because there aren't a lot of obvious candidates.
Palmer, though, showed life last year when given opportunity, and he has a good chance to lead this team in targets.
In three games down the stretch without Keenan Allen and Mike Williams last season, Palmer held a 20.4% target share and averaged 68.0 yards on 7.3 targets per game.
With an ADP of WR56, there's room for Palmer to outproduce his draft-day value.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
Standing in the way of a Dowdle breakout opportunity is Ezekiel Elliott -- and not much else. Elliott's rushing efficiency with the Patriots a year ago was subpar. Not terrible -- but certainly below average.
Dowdle never carved out a legitimate role in the Dallas Cowboys' offense last season but was around the team average in rushing efficiency across various metrics.
As a likely committee back, Dowdle's single-week startability will be hard to justify. However, if Elliott misses time or continues to decline in terms of efficiency, Dowdle's role could expand to a notable degree.
New York Giants
Nabers' ADP puts him just inside the WR2 conversation (he's the WR23 by average draft position), and while that doesn't leave him a ton of room to overperform, his potential is too hard to ignore.
Nabers is projected for a heavy 25.5% target share by numberFire, and 130-plus targets for the talented rookie (and the 6th overall pick this season) should yield fantasy football success in some form or fashion. Austin Swaim thinks Nabers can help you win your league.
Nabers was PFF's top-graded WR in 2023 and finished ninth in yards after the catch and third in yards on deep targets.
Philadelphia Eagles
Johnny Wilson
The Philadelphia Eagles' big fantasy football roles are spoken for, so there isn't a lot of room for breakout potential.
With that in mind, the most obvious place for a breakout is with the team's WR3 slot, which is up for grabs behind A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.
Sixth-round speedster Johnny Wilson could take over that role.
Wilson stands 6'6" and weighs 231 pounds. His size-adjusted speed score puts him in the 98th percentile among WR prospects, per PlayerProfiler.
The pure athletic potential makes Wilson worth a flier in deeper leagues.
Washington Commanders
Daniels' rushing ability makes him a potential league-winner, and as the QB14 by ADP, he can be a late-round flier at worst.
In 2023, Daniels led NCAA quarterbacks in Rushing EPA, and he now has a respectable set of pass-catchers to throw to in Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson, and Austin Ekeler can earn targets out of the backfield.
Daniels also projects as a top-12 quarterback in numberFire's Week 1 fantasy football projections against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, so he can be a plug-and-play option for those who miss out on the elite tier of QBs in the draft.
NFC North
Chicago Bears
There's a lot to like for Caleb Williams ahead of the 2024 season.
- Williams was the first overall pick in the NFL Draft.
- His pass-catchers are D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet. D'Andre Swift can catch the ball out of the backfield.
- Williams can run (he was 17th in Rushing EPA among NCAA QBs last season).
This all means he has the building blocks for an upside season.
He opens the year with a home matchup agains the Tennessee Titans and is projected to be a top-10 Week 1 QB, as well.
Detroit Lions
Williams' breakout potential is pretty sick.
He's in a great offense, and we saw the breakout begin to end last season. Seeing an upward trajectory at the end of a season goes a long way toward solidifying offseason hype.
After Week 11 last season, Williams' snap rate and route rate climbed from 40.9% and 39.3%, respectively, to 63.9% and 66.2%.
His target share was still low after that shift (9.6%), but he held a massive aDOT (16.8 yards).
That -- plus the offseason hype out of Lions camp -- makes Williams a draft-day target.
Green Bay Packers
Watson has kinda, sorta broken out...ish...in the past, but he could never really put it all together for a full season.
His hamstring issues could be a thing of the past, and that could mean 17 games of full-speed Watson.
In eight games with a 50% snap rate or better in 2023, Watson held a 17.1% target share but a 34.4% air yards share on a hefty 16.6-yard aDOT.
Giving weight to red zone and downfield targets, his 5.7 targets per game had the fantasy value of 9.0 targets per game, per my data.
For more, see why Austan Kas thinks Watson is a league-winner in fantasy football.
Minnesota Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings are tough to figure out now.
The pick would've been J.J. McCarthy, but he's been ruled out for the season with a meniscus injury.
It could've been Jordan Addison, but he could face a suspension this season due to a DUI arrest in July, and he was carted off from practice with an apparent injury.
T.J. Hockenson doesn't appear ready to start the season.
A lack of pass-catchers could lead to a bigger role for second-string RB Ty Chandler -- especially if Aaron Jones splits out wide early in the season.
Over his final five games in 2023, Chandler had a 62.1% snap rate and averaged 73.8 scrimmage yards per contest with a good red zone role (66.7% rushing share and 34.5% overall opportunity share).
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
London enters his third season in the NFL but has yet to record more than 905 receiving yards or 4 touchdowns in a single season.
He still fits the "is yet to break out" description.
London led the Atlanta Falcons with a 23.2% target share a year ago, and passing volume should spike under offensive coordinator Zac Robinson and with Kirk Cousins in town as the quarterback.
numberFire projects London -- the WR11 by ADP -- to finish as the WR9. That certainly classifies as a breakout for London, who has finished as the WR36 or worse in each of his first two seasons.
Annie Nader is eyeing Drake London as a potential fantasy football league-winner.
Carolina Panthers
Brooks won't pay off in Week 1 (or even Week 2), as he's likely out until Week 3 or 4, per Carolina Panthers beat reporter Joe Person.
But a long-term breakout is still a breakout, and Brooks could be the type of player you love to have stashed by the time bye weeks and injuries pile up.
Brooks was the first RB off the board in the 2024 NFL Draft (46th overall) and the only back taken inside the top 65 picks.
With the Texas Longhorns last season, Brooks averaged 3.91 yards after contact per rush attempt, a top-10 rate among high-volume RBs, via PFF.
There's not enough competition to fend off Brooks long-term -- if he can get right by the end of the season.
New Orleans Saints
As a big Olave fan, I never realized Olave's year-end fantasy finishes have been just WR25 and WR19.
His ceiling is much higher than that.
Olave maintained a 25.0% target share a year ago (17th among WRs) and a 39.3% air yards share (9th). He also finished the year with -87.1 yards over expectation on downfield targets (10+ yards), so his 2023 could've been much better.
As for Shaheed, he flashed. In four games with Olave but without Michael Thomas, Shaheed accounted for a 15.4% target share but a 23.5% air yards share with a 68.0% route rate.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
McMillan will open the season behind Mike Evans and Chris Godwin on the depth chart for the Buccaneers -- and likely stay there unless either of them miss time.
With that said, though, McMillan is easy to get hyped about.
He has a breakout age of 19.7 (a 70th-percentile mark for WR prospects) and profiles as a low-aDOT slot guy who was worthy of the 92nd overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
He's impressing in camp and has a good claim to be the third option in a viable offense. PPR drafters and deep-league managers could get a strong showing from McMillan this season.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals
The Arizona Cardinals' top-two pass-catchers -- rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr. and third-year TE Trey McBride -- could probably technically fit the bill as breakout candidates (it's Harrison Jr.'s rookie season, and McBride was "just" the TE9 last season).
With that said, though, the team needs a third option, and it's very likely going to be a viable WR in Michael Wilson.
Wilson, last season, maintained a 13.5% target share with a +9.7% catch rate over expectation.
In games with Kyler Murray, Wilson's target share went up to 15.1% with an 11.9-yard aDOT, and he had an 89.9% route rate.
Los Angeles Rams
Corum was the third running back drafted in 2024 and now sits behind Kyren Williams on the depth chart.
Corum's metrics are mostly only average-to-strong but not elite, but he handled a big workload with the Michigan Wolverines, and he's making a great impression on head coach Sean McVay.
Although Williams has gone on record saying he's healthy, it's fair to point out that lingering foot issues could lead to added touches and/or spot starts for Corum.
San Francisco 49ers
Pearsall was a first-round pick for the San Francisco 49ers. Pearsall is 6'1" and 189 pounds with a 4.41-second 40-yard dash time.
In an offense without many open touches given how stacked it is at the top, Pearsall could easily be fantasy irrelevant all season.
However, if Brandon Aiyuk is traded or any health concerns crop up, the speedy WR could make a splash as a rookie on an offense that projects to lead the NFL in scoring, via Jim Sannes.
Seattle Seahawks
Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the 20th overall draft pick last season for the Seattle Seahawks. He started the season slow with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett ahead of him on the depth chart and a wrist surgery in late August.
Over his final 10 games, JSN carved out a 17.4% target share even with Metcalf and Lockett (22.3% each) maintaining their usual roles.
There are expectations that JSN can overtake Lockett in the target department, and for a WR46 ADP, that's very attractive for such a talented wideout.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
