There are a lot of ways to value NFL players for fantasy football.

Of course, how many fantasy points they score is paramount, and no amount of regression analysis or film grinding will ever change that.

However, players can overperform and underperform in certain games and timeframes, and it's important to find some sort of balance.

Is a receiver coming off of a six-target, two-touchdown game? He's probably someone we should expect to take a step back in the production department. But what if he's slotted into an elite matchup with a high game over/under?

Or if a wideout leads the league in unrealized air yards (basically a lot of high-leverage targets without as many catches as he should have), he's easy to pinpoint as a breakout candidate. But what if he's outdoors in heavy winds against a top-tier pass D? Maybe next week is his week.

For that reason, I assembled a three-tier breakout model for wide receivers.

The Breakout Score model accounts for three key things:

1. Expected Fantasy Points: Based on things like targets, air yards, red zone targets, and end zone targets, we can assign a value to a player's actual workload.
2. Game Environment: By combining some key variables such as opposing pass defense, wind, game total, and more, we can see who is in a spot actually primed for a breakout.
3. Weekly Volume Projections: Sometimes, a player gets a lot of extra volume and high-leverage looks but is in line for a role reduction with a starter returning. We can help account for that by relying on numberFire's fantasy football projections and projected rushing and target volume.

With all that out of the way, let's dig in.

Note: All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Week 6 Buy Low Wide Receiver Targets

Here are the top candidates whose Breakout Score is noticeably higher than their actual FanDuel points per game output leading into Week 6.

Let's highlight a few names.

Tank Dell

Tank Dell is no stranger to the breakout model, as he has averaged just 5.8 FanDuel points per game this season. But Nico Collins is headed to injured reserve, and Collins vacates a 24.7% target share in the offense, giving Dell room to grow his 14.7% target share (in his active games).

Dell, last year, was a top-16 wideout by half-PPR points per game.

Tank is still averaging 1.5 carries per game to go along with his 5.3 targets, and nobody is averaging more downfield targets (10-plus yards) than Dell (2.8 per game) in this offense other than Collins (5.4).

Dell also owns a 25.0% red zone target share when suiting up.

He is outdoors this week, but Houston's implied team total is still in the middle of the league against the New England Patriots this week. New England ranks 24th in yards per route run allowed to opposing WRs.

Brandon Aiyuk
Deebo Samuel

What's that? Brandon Aiyuk a buy-low candidate after a 12-target, 147-yard game? By the method I'm using, yeah. He sure is.

Aiyuk has still not scored this season despite five end zone targets, and he's also been tackled inside the five-yard line three times. Only Diontae Johnson has as many near-touchdowns (eight) as Aiyuk this season.

Now, the San Francisco 49ers face a slightly-better-than-average adjusted pass defense in the Seattle Seahawks, but Aiyuk's projection and underlying workload still suggests he should be scoring better than his full-season average.

Deebo Samuel also makes the cut after a 3-target, 3-carry, 20-yard game in Week 5.

Samuel ran just 4 fewer routes than Aiyuk (34 to 30) but wasn't involved as much, as George Kittle and Aiyuk dominated the targets. Samuel is projected for 9.4 combined targets and carries this week by numberFire's model. That firmly puts him in bounce-back territory.

Michael Pittman Jr.

Michael Pittman Jr. continues to underwhelm, though he did score his first touchdown last week. And he had 131 yards the week prior. But he has four games (out of five) with under 40 receiving yards.

This week, Pittman Jr. is outdoors and facing a good pass defense -- but this is about his overall opportunity so far compared to his production.

In three games with Josh Downs, Pittman Jr. still has a 24.2% target share with 3.3 downfield targets per game and 1.7 red zone targets per game (with 7.3 total targets per game). Accounting for more weight on red zone and downfield targets, Pittman Jr. still has the slightly better workload than Downs over the last three weeks.

Keenan Allen

The total Breakout Score (estimated fantasy projection) for Keenan Allen is relatively low (7.7), but it represents a big boost over Allen's per-game output thus far (4.4 points).

Allen has a weak 50.0% catch rate with a -14.3% catch rate over expectation (per NextGenStats) but has a 25.3% target share in his active games with good underlying work (2.0 downfield targets, 1.0 red zone targets, and 1.0 end zone targets per agme) with a 27.0% target-per-route rate, which is better than D.J. Moore's 26.2% and is near the elite tier of WRs.

Allen and the Chicago Bears are in London to face the Jacksonville Jaguars's 32nd-ranked adjusted pass defense this week.

Romeo Doubs
Dontayvion Wicks

I highlighted Romeo Doubs last week here, and he was suspended for Week 5, so his underlying data remains unchanged (all that will change for him this week are the matchup variables and volume projections that are injected into the breakout model).

Waiver-wire darling Dontayvion Wicks is also on the list this week due to some subpar performance on his overall volume.

Doubs has led all Green Bay Packers receivers in routes every single game when he's suited up, and he has had four near-touchdowns (tackled inside the five twice and two empty end zone targets). Even with a missed game, that ranks him tied for eighth among pass-catchers.

As for Wicks, he has three touchdowns already and has averaged 7.1 FanDuel points per game but sets up for better production this week against the Arizona Cardinals, who rank 32nd in passing success rate and 31st in pressure rate. That could help Wicks -- who sports a 14.2-yard aDOT -- get downfield targets.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.