College Football Betting Picks for Week 7

The college football landscape has been reset for the 2024 season. The College Football Playoff (CFP) will have 12 teams for the first time, which features the five conference champions paired with the next seven highest-ranked teams. Conferences underwent major changes, as well. The Pac-12 is virtually no more while the SEC added two major brands and the Big Ten, Big 12, and ACC all acquired several squads.

As if a shakeup in conference play wasn't intriguing enough, the stakes will also be heightened on a week-to-week basis with far more teams in contention for the CFP. Higher stakes could also generate more competitive games throughout the season, potentially impacting how we bet the sport.

Week 7 is gearing up to be one of the best slates thus far, and there's more where that came from with loaded schedules on tap for the rest of October. Do you like rivalries? This weekend's slate has you covered with the Red River Rivalry. What about heavyweights with national title aspirations? A matchup like the Ohio State Buckeyes against the Oregon Ducks probably floats your boat.

Using the college football odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, what are the best college football bets for this week?

All college football odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

College Football Best Bets

No. 1 Texas Longhorns at No. 18 Oklahoma Sooners

Oklahoma +14.5 (-115)
Over 50.5 (-108)

Here's one rule of thumb I typically live by: don't expect blowouts in some of college football's best rivalries. Things get intense, emotions are high, and each team has all of the motivation in the world to perform -- but especially the overlooked underdog.

That's the case for the Texas Longhorns against the Oklahoma Sooners. The Red River Rivalry dates back 1900, and Saturday's contest will mark the 120th game in the storied matchup. This probably one of the three best rivalries in college football, alongside Ohio State-Michigan and Alabama-Auburn. With that said, Texas favored by 14.5 points simply feels too high.

While the Longhorns have been excellent as the nation's top team, they are not invincible. Texas has shown some cracks in its armor since stomping the Wolverines, mainly in Week 5's win over the Mississippi State Bulldogs.

The Longhorns were favored by well over 30 points and led only 21-6 going into the fourth quarter; they would go on to win 35-13. Against a defense that's in the bottom 12% in points per game (PPG) and yards per contest allowed, this was pretty underwhelming for an offense that already logs 45.0 PPG (fifth-most). The yardage was there at 522, but Texas had two turnovers and eight penalties. Overall, it was a sloppy and slow start for the Longhorns and probably the offensive line's worst showing of the season. Plus, the offense lacked balance in the first half, rarely running the rock.

Texas comes off bye, likely addressing some of those issues. Still, this paired with the trajectory of Oklahoma could mean a cover for the dogs.

What do I mean by the trajectory of the Sooners? OU elected to name Michael Hawkins Jr. as the starting quarterback ahead of its last game. The true freshman impressed with a 72.0 player grade and 71.6 pass grade, via Pro Football Focus. That's miles better than Jackson Arnold's 28.9 player grade and 30.0 pass grade from Week 4's loss against the Tennessee Volunteers. Plus, Hawkins showed off his legs with 69 rushing yards and one touchdown against the Auburn Tigers in Week 5. The Sooners' signal-caller will make history as the first true freshman OU QB to start in the Red River Rivalry.

The offense could also be returning a major piece -- wide receiver Deion Burks. The team's leading wideout is currently the 71st prospect on NFL Mock Draft Database's 2025 Consensus Big Board. Between a potential return from Burks paired with Hawkins under center, this offense could finally improve -- a unit that has logged only 4.5 yards per play (bottom 13%).

We know Oklahoma can defend, giving up 16.0 PPG (9%) and 4.5 yards per play (top 13%). The run defense has been elite led by linebacker Danny Stutsman, surrendering only 2.8 yards per rushing attempt (top 6%). While the Sooners can take away some of Texas' balance on offense, the secondary is giving up 7.9 yards per passing attempt (bottom 38%) and allowed 9.2 yards per attempt against Tennessee.

For the Longhorns, Quinn Ewers -- who carries +1800 odds to win the Heisman Trophy -- is expected to return from an oblique injury. Maybe Ewers will show a little rust, but this passing attack putting up 10.0 passing yards per attempt (top 7%) could be a major issue for OU's pass defense.

With each team in the top 29% for the quickest tempos in the nation (seconds per play), I'm expecting plenty of points in this one. Texas' passing offense gets another juicy matchup, and OU's offense is headed in the right direction. The Longhorns are giving up only 3.6 yards per play (top 1%), but they've yet to face a quality offense with Mississippi State, Michigan, and Colorado State all ranking outside the top 70 in PFF's offense grade.

Along with over 50.5, I still like the Sooners to cover. About 52% of the public are taking Texas against the spread (ATS), giving me even more hope for OU. This simply feels too high in an intense rivalry, and numberFire's game projections are giving Oklahoma a 63.1% likelihood to cover -- which carries -171 implied odds.

No. 4 Penn State Nittany Lions at USC Trojans

Penn State -4.5 (-115)

The Penn State Nittany Lions against the USC Trojans lacks some of the luster we thought it would have. That's thanks to USC dropping a game on the road against Minnesota Golden Gophers last week. The Trojans were ranked 11th in the AP Top 25 Poll prior to the contest and now find themselves outside of the poll. Meanwhile, Penn State has steadily climbed to being ranked 4th in the nation.

USC's free fall out of the AP Poll does seem a bit harsh, though. This is still expected to be a tight game with the Nittany Lions favored by 4.5 points. While siding with the public can make many nervous, I'm not hesitating in this case. About 72% of spread bets at FanDuel Sportsbook are on the Lions, and I could not agree more.

First off, numberFire has this game with a projected score of 35.5 to 27.2 in favor of PSU. This carries a 56.9% likelihood for the Nittany Lions to cover compared to their current odds of -115 holding a 53.5% implied probability. College Football Nerds' model has this at 30.7-16.8 in favor of Penn State, as well.

Along with models, the stats say back the Lions, too. USC's defense has been miles better this season, allowing only 18.4 PPG (top 15%) and 316.2 yards per contest (top 17%). However, the Trojans are surrendering 5.0 yards per rushing attempt (bottom 24%) and 158.6 rushing yards per contest (bottom 44%).

Penn State features one of the best running back duos across college football in Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. After missing last week's game with an undisclosed injury, Singleton is expected to return to action on Saturday. The Nittany Lions attempt 40.6 carries per game (top 15%) while logging 5.4 yards per rushing attempt (top 13%) and 217.8 rushing yards per contest (top 10%).

USC ranks 49th in PFF coverage grade while the Nittany Lions are posting 10.7 yards per passing attempt (5th-most). The Trojans are also heavily leaning on the pass with 42.6 attempts per game (5th-most), and PSU is allowing only 5.7 yards per passing attempt (12th-fewest) and 157.0 passing yards per contest (8th-fewest). Additionally, USC ranks 128th in PFF pass block grade while the Nittany Lions hold the 5th-best pass rush grade in America.

I wouldn't be surprised if this one got out of hand.

No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes at No. 3 Oregon Ducks

Ohio State -3.5 (-102) Under 52.5 (-105)

Now it's time to break down one of the best matchups of the regular season. Ohio State and Oregon have been on a collision course since the offseason. These teams were expected to be the cream of the crop in the Big Ten with the Buckeyes holding -115 odds to win the Big Ten Championship Game while the Ducks are +230. It goes beyond just conference play, too, as OSU holds the shortest odds to win the National Championship (+290), and Oregon isn't far behind with the fifth-shortest line (+1000). This could be the first of two or even three matchups between the Big Ten foes this season. Who knows?

With that said, who has the edge for this Titanic-sized clash?

Models are giving us some interesting results. numberFire sees this margin being razor-thin with the Buckeyes projected to win by 0.9 points, and MasseyRatings has OSU winning 28-24. College Football Nerds brings back the most surprising results, forecasting a 27.8-10.6 score in favor of Ohio State. The one common factor here: the Buckeyes win.

We have two picks on deck for this game, taking advantage of FanDuel Sportsbook's 100% Profit Boost for any wager on October 12th's game between Ohio State-Oregon (see here for more details).

Starting with the spread, Ohio State simply looks like the better and more balanced team. The Buckeyes are currently PFF's top-graded team while leading the nation in overall team expected points added (EPA) per play, in EPA allowed, and EPA per play on offense. Meanwhile, Oregon is 13th in PFF's rankings and 8th in overall team EPA per play.

Ohio State has some advantages going into this one, as well. The Buckeyes feature one of college football best defensive tackle duos with Tyleik Williams (88.9 player grade; 91.7 run grade) and Ty Hamilton (82.2 player grade; 82.7 run grade). The Ducks' interior offensive line made up of guards Nishad Strother (68.6 player grade) and Marcus Harper II (53.0 player grade) paired with center Iapani Laloulu (65.0 player grade) could prove to be a weak spot. This screams mediocre at best, while OSU even has quality defensive tackle depth, including Kayden McDonald (70.6 player grade; 72.7 run grade).

Oregon's rushing game has been a bit up and down, which included 2.9 yards per carry against Idaho, 3.0 yards per carry against Boise State, and 4.3 yards per carry in Week 5 against UCLA. Plus, the Buckeyes' run game is tracking well with 6.3 yards per carry (fifth-most) while the Ducks are outside the top 50 in team run defense grade. OSU's passing game has the ability to hit big plays courtesy of Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith, leading to 9.3 yards per passing attempt (13th-most). Stacking the box against the Buckeyes could only lead to big play after big play from this talented receiving duo.

Overall, I like Ohio State's chances of winning the run game. The Buckeyes also hold the 13th-best turnover margin (+1.0) while Oregon is in the bottom 28% of the category (-0.5). Winning the run game and turnover battle definitely spells success on the road, and it's hard to ignore that 17-point projected margin by College Football Nerds, too. Even visiting the Buckeyes to cover the alternate spread of -9.5 (+190) deserves some attention.

The under would pair well with Ohio State -3.5 (-102) -- not so much if you take the Buckeyes by a lot. Both teams are among the top 41% for the slowest tempos in college football. Each defense is among PFF's top-10 units, in the top 8 of EPA allowed per play, and in the top 10% in yards allowed per play.

College football's best defense calls Columbus, Ohio home by most accounts, including 6.8 PPG allowed (first), 203.4 yards allowed per contest (first), and 3.5 yards allowed per play (first) from the Scarlet and Gray.

While we highlighted OSU's chances for success on offense, we shouldn't overlook Oregon's defense. The unit is giving up only 17.8 PPG (top 12%), and this secondary deserves a lot of credit with cornerback Jabbar Muhammad (73.3 player grade; 74.8 coverage grade) and safety Tysheem Johnson (78.9 player grade; 78.6 coverage grade).

It's not out of the realm of possibilities for the Ducks to leave their capable secondary on islands while the box is stacked, attempting to slow the run and put pressure on quarterback Will Howard. Like most of the country is asking, Oregon is probably wondering is Howard good enough? Testing OSU's signal-caller could lead to success for the Ducks' defense.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.