NASCAR Betting Picks: Bank of America ROVAL 400

We've got a lot of factors to consider when betting this week's NASCAR Cup Series race at the Charlotte ROVAL.

First, it's the final race of the Round of 12. This means a handful of teams will be gunning for points, trying to advance to the next round.

Second, we've got a loaded entry list with both Shane Van Gisbergen and AJ Allmendinger behind the wheel for Kaulig Racing. Neither driver has to consider points, meaning they can take the optimal strategy to snag a win.

Third, the Charlotte road course has been reconfigured, leading Chase Elliott to say he's treating it "like it's a new race track." It could lead to extra chaos on what has already been a high-variance stop.

It's a lot to weigh, but I do think we can find edges in the betting markets this week.

Which values stand out relative to my model in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds? Let's dig in and check it out prior to practice and qualifying.

NASCAR Best Bets for the Charlotte ROVAL

Christopher Bell to Win (+1100)

(UPDATE: Bell has since lengthened to +1300 to win. He had just decent speed in practice and qualified 12th. I still have him as a value after practice at 8.6%, up from 7.1% implied, but the enthusiasm has come down a bit thanks to just a mediocre Saturday and immense speed from Van Gisbergen.)

Christopher Bell technically has to consider points this week. He's not locked into the Round of 8 yet.

But sitting 57 points above the cutline, he can feel good about his odds to advance. Thus, I don't mind accepting the value my model shows on him here.

I've got Bell at 9.4% to win, up from 8.3% implied. He won this race back in 2022, a season where Toyotas were hideous on road courses.

This year, Bell was runner-up at COTA and had a sixth-place average running position at the Chicago street course. He ran into 16,000 issues at Watkins Glen, but for the most part, his cars have been strong.

I wouldn't be shocked if Bell prioritizes stage points in the opening stage in order to build his cushion, but he should be able to race after that. Thus, I don't think his points position should be a big enough deterrent to push us off.

Ty Gibbs to Win (+1400)

(UPDATE: Gibbs has since lengthened to +2200 to win. Due to a lack of speed Saturday, he's now down to 4.6% in my model, just a hair above his 4.4% implied odds. I'd prefer not to add Gibbs as things currently stand.)

Points are of (almost) no concern to Ty Gibbs, who was eliminated in the last round. With his first win potentially on the table, they should let him play the optimal strategy.

Gibbs has flirted with a breakthrough consistently on road courses. He was on the podium at both COTA and Chicago this year, and he was fourth in this race last year. In 10 road-course races as a full-time Cup driver, Gibbs has four top-fives with a top-five average running position in each of those.

Because of that, I've got Gibbs at 9.2% to win this week, up from 6.7% implied. If we're going to bump up Allmendinger and SVG because they can go for the win, we should do the same for Gibbs.

Michael McDowell to Finish Top 5 (+280)

(UPDATE: McDowell has since lengthened to +500 to finish top 5. My model has also cooled on him, and he's now down to 17.6% to cash, slightly up from 16.7% implied. I wouldn't recommend adding McDowell as things stand.)

I've been wary of Michael McDowell the second half of the year as he's transitioning to Chevrolet from Ford next year. The market, though, has cooled enough where I'm willing to go back one last time.

Part of my confidence comes from what happened at Watkins Glen, the other playoff road course race. There, McDowell had a sixth-place average running position -- his best mark of the year -- en route to a seventh-place finish.

Charlotte has definitely been a weaker road course for McDowell, who is yet to finish better than 12th here. It's a red flag for sure. The hope would be that the new configuration could help erase those woes.

With points being largely irrelevant to McDowell, my model has him at 32.8% to finish top 5, up from 26.3% implied. That's a big enough edge to assuage my concerns and get me to bite.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Carson Hocevar to Finish Top 10 (+460)

I've been surprised and impressed by Carson Hocevar on road courses this year. He has had a top-20 average running position in all four races, and he finished third in Watkins Glen. I think he could continue that success today.

Hocevar qualified just 20th, but he had good pace in practice. He ranked sixth in single-lap speed after adjusting for group speed differentials.

In that aforementioned Watkins Glen race, all three Spire cars wound up in the top 10. It's possible they've just unlocked something program-wide, and Hocevar seems good enough to take advantage. I've got him at 26.9% to finish top 10, up from 17.9% implied.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Zane Smith to Finish Top 10 (+800)

I had higher expectations for Zane Smith on road courses entering the Cup Series than I did for Hocevar, given Smith actually was very good on them in the Truck Series. I think he's also undervalued at this number, making two Spire cars values for me.

Smith ran five road-course races his final two years in the Truck Series. He was either first or second in all five of those races.

This year, Smith has finished 19th or better in all four races, including a top-five in Watkins Glen. Again, it seems like this team is just on the upswing on this track type.

Smith actually had the fastest single-lap speed in practice Saturday after adjusting for group speed differentials. He'll start back in 23rd, but simliar to Hocevar, I think Smith can pick his way through traffic. I've got Smith at 19.7% to finish top 10, up from 11.1% implied.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.