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NASCAR Betting Picks: Bank of America ROVAL 400

Jim Sannes
Jim Sannes@JimSannes

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NASCAR Betting Picks: Bank of America ROVAL 400

We've got a lot of factors to consider when betting this week's NASCAR Cup Series race at the Charlotte ROVAL.

First, it's the final race of the Round of 12. This means a handful of teams will be gunning for points, trying to advance to the next round.

Second, we've got a loaded entry list with both Shane Van Gisbergen and AJ Allmendinger behind the wheel for Kaulig Racing. Neither driver has to consider points, meaning they can take the optimal strategy to snag a win.

Third, the Charlotte road course has been reconfigured, leading Chase Elliott to say he's treating it "like it's a new race track." It could lead to extra chaos on what has already been a high-variance stop.

It's a lot to weigh, but I do think we can find edges in the betting markets this week.

Which values stand out relative to my model in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds? Let's dig in and check it out prior to practice and qualifying.

NASCAR Best Bets for the Charlotte ROVAL

Christopher Bell to Win (+1100)

Christopher Bell technically has to consider points this week. He's not locked into the Round of 8 yet.

But sitting 57 points above the cutline, he can feel good about his odds to advance. Thus, I don't mind accepting the value my model shows on him here.

I've got Bell at 9.4% to win, up from 8.3% implied. He won this race back in 2022, a season where Toyotas were hideous on road courses.

This year, Bell was runner-up at COTA and had a sixth-place average running position at the Chicago street course. He ran into 16,000 issues at Watkins Glen, but for the most part, his cars have been strong.

I wouldn't be shocked if Bell prioritizes stage points in the opening stage in order to build his cushion, but he should be able to race after that. Thus, I don't think his points position should be a big enough deterrent to push us off.

Ty Gibbs to Win (+1400)

Points are of (almost) no concern to Ty Gibbs, who was eliminated in the last round. With his first win potentially on the table, they should let him play the optimal strategy.

Gibbs has flirted with a breakthrough consistently on road courses. He was on the podium at both COTA and Chicago this year, and he was fourth in this race last year. In 10 road-course races as a full-time Cup driver, Gibbs has four top-fives with a top-five average running position in each of those.

Because of that, I've got Gibbs at 9.2% to win this week, up from 6.7% implied. If we're going to bump up Allmendinger and SVG because they can go for the win, we should do the same for Gibbs.

Michael McDowell to Finish Top 5 (+280)

I've been wary of Michael McDowell the second half of the year as he's transitioning to Chevrolet from Ford next year. The market, though, has cooled enough where I'm willing to go back one last time.

Part of my confidence comes from what happened at Watkins Glen, the other playoff road course race. There, McDowell had a sixth-place average running position -- his best mark of the year -- en route to a seventh-place finish.

Charlotte has definitely been a weaker road course for McDowell, who is yet to finish better than 12th here. It's a red flag for sure. The hope would be that the new configuration could help erase those woes.

With points being largely irrelevant to McDowell, my model has him at 32.8% to finish top 5, up from 26.3% implied. That's a big enough edge to assuage my concerns and get me to bite.


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Which drivers stand out to you at the ROVAL? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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