Fantasy Football Buy Low: Wide Receiver Breakout Candidates for Week 4

Whether you're deciding who to start in season-long, who to roster in NFL DFS, or which NFL prop bets to consider on FanDuel Sportsbook, there are still plenty of ways to buy low on players poised to bounce back from disappointing outings.

While looking ahead at the games across the NFL, which wide receivers should we buy low on ahead of this week?

All fantasy football projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Wide Receivers to Buy Low in Fantasy Football

Tetairoa McMillan, Panthers

Tetairoa McMillan has flashed his immense potential with some highlight plays, but his fantasy totals have been mediocre (9.3, 13.0, and 6.3). His heavy workload in a weak Carolina Panthers receiving corps suggests better output than his 9.5 fantasy points per game (WR31).

In fact, the first-round rookie has clearly separated himself as Carolina's WR1 -- boasting an 89.1% snap share, 88.9% route share, 33.3% target share, and absurd 63.6% air yards share. According to Pro Football Focus, McMillan has the sixth-worst plus/minus among receivers for expected fantasy points (-12.3).

Despite his heavy usage and skills as a possession receiver while standing at 6-foot-5, he has only a 16.7% red zone target share. Considering the rook has taken 92.3% of red zone snaps, positive regression should be on the way.

Bryce Young has also posted -0.03 expected points added per dropback (EPA/db) over the last two games, compared to -0.46 in the season-opener (per NFL Next Gen Stats). After posting 30 points in Week 3, will Carolina keep producing against the New England Patriots?

New England has the second-worst adjusted pass defense, giving up the third-highest pass success rate, second-highest completion percentage over expectation (CPOE), fourth-most yards per downfield target, and second-highest EPA/db. McMillan has enjoyed his fair share of downfield targets, sporting an average depth of target (aDOT) of 11.0 yards paired with a 66.7% downfield target share.

Struggles against deep shots could continue for the Patriots as their top cornerback, Christian Gonzalez (hamstring), could miss his fourth straight game to open 2025. With that said, McMillan is in line to produce a splash fantasy performance.

Darnell Mooney, Falcons

Quarterback play is becoming an alarming problem for the Atlanta Falcons as Michael Penix Jr. holds -0.23 EPA/db through three games. This has led to deflating numbers from Drake London (-11.0) and Darnell Mooney (-11.4) -- who are among PFF's bottom eight for plus/minus expected fantasy points.

Week 4 brings an enticing matchup with the Washington Commanders. While the Commanders have held opponents to 19.0 points per game (12th-fewest), teams are still posting 7.7 yards per passing attempt (8th-most) on Washington. Furthermore, Washington ranks as the 12th-worst adjusted pass D while ceding the 8th-most yards per downfield target and the highest aDOT. This points to a nice matchup for the deep ball, but can London or Mooney expose the flaw?

Between the two, I'd lean into Mooney. Over two games, Mooney leads Atlanta with a 24.2% target share, 41.4% air yards share, and 47.8% downfield target share. The veteran wideout has posted 5.5 downfield targets per game and a 12.0 aDOT, compared to London's marks of 3.0 and 9.2 since Week 2. Mooney is the more consistent deep threat in this offense.

Penix's play has caused a list of concerns as long as a kid's Christmas list, but I still have faith in his deep ball. According to Pro Football Focus, he has a 40.9 pass grade on attempts of 20 or more yards this season, but this is on only five attempts. We have a larger sample from 2024 with Penix recording a 98.2 pass grade on 16 passing attempts of 20 or more yards.

After logging only 4.7 fantasy points per game in his first two outings, Mooney has a golden opportunity in Week 4. Adding to the matchup, the Commanders' rookie cornerback Trey Amos (70.0 coverage grade) could be absent due to a calf injury.

Matthew Golden, Packers

Matthew Golden hasn't underperformed his expected fantasy point on the same level as McMillan and Mooney, holding a plus/minus of -1.8 expected fantasy points. With only 2.7 targets per game, a lack of opportunities has kept the rookie's plus/minus in control.

However, things have changed as the Green Bay Packers are thin at wide receiver. Not only is Christian Watson recovering from an ACL injury, Jayden Reed (collarbone) was placed on injured reserve. Reed played for only five snaps in Week 2, giving us a two-game look of a receiving corps without Watson and Reed.

Golden has steadily seen his role increase, logging snap rates of 46.8%, 58.7%, and 68.9% over the last three games. His snaps have risen in every single game, and the former first-rounder enjoyed a career-high four targets last week. He provided exceptional efficiency with his limited opportunities, posting 2.0 yards per route run, a 24.9% catch rate over expectation (CROE), and 16.0 receiving yards over expectation (RecYOE).

After logging four catches for 52 receiving yards (8.1 fantasy points) in Week 3, the trending receiver can keep it going against a horrendous Dallas Cowboys secondary.

Dallas' pass D will be a target all season; it's like a kid feasting on his stash of trick or treat candy. The Cowboys have the worst adjusted pass D and give up the highest EPA/db, seventh-highest aDOT, and most yards per downfield target. With Dallas allowing 9.8 yards per passing attempt (the most), this should be a field day for Jordan Love.

Golden had Green Bay's sole downfield target last week as the Packers posted only 5.0 yards per passing attempt in the deflating 13-10 loss against the Cleveland Browns. This is bound to improve with Green Bay recording 8.6 yards per passing attempt over Week 1 and 2 along with 8.1 from the 2024 season (fourth-most).

Love boasts an 89.7 pass grade on attempts of 10 to 19 yards and a 93.6 grade on throws of 20 or more yards. Golden's increased usage could lead to explosive numbers against a struggling secondary.

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